Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Lincoln, IL

715 
WGUS73 KILX 020358
FFSILX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1058 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

ILC023-045-020408-
/O.EXP.KILX.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-240402T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Clark IL-Edgar IL-
1058 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR 
NORTHWESTERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN EDGAR COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT Tuesday for 
portions of central, east central, southeast, and west central 
Illinois.

&&

LAT...LON 3948 8801 3948 8796 3953 8796 3978 8768
      3978 8753 3966 8753 3964 8753 3962 8753
      3961 8753 3959 8753 3949 8770 3929 8801

$$

Deubelbeiss

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
822 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
  tonight with severe storms possible area-wide. An Enhanced Risk
  for thunderstorms exists for the southern half of central IL
  tonight.

- Rainfall of 1-3" is expected across central IL with a 20% chance
  of over 3" of rain tonight.

- Tuesday night through Wednesday night, snow showers are expected
  mainly north of Lincoln. There is a 50% chance for 0.5" of snow
  accumulations, mainly on grassy surfaces.

- Near-freezing temperatures are forecast Wednesday through Friday
  nights.

- Southwest winds will gust to 35 to 45 mph on Tuesday across
  east-central IL. Northwest winds with gusts to 35 to 45 mph are
  expected area-wide on Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 821 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

A line of showers and storms continues between the I-70 and I-72
corridor this evening. Main concern with these storms in the near
term is for flooding with repeated rounds moving over the same
area. Pre-storm conditions indicated that around 1.5/1hr rain
rates or 2.0/3hr rates would be sufficient for flash flooding to
occur, and we are seeing some pockets of this with some warnings
already in effect. HREF LPMM indicated that storm total precip
amounts of 2-4 inches were possible along with some locally higher
amounts. Meanwhile, outflow/cold pool from ongoing convection
places the effective frontal boundary roughly just north of the
I-70 corridor this evening. This and areas south will be the
primary area to keep a close eye on additional severe storms this
evening. 01Z SPC meso-analysis indicated a tight instability
gradient near the effective front with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE
south of the boundary superimposed by an area of strong deep layer
shear. While the severe threat thus far has been mainly
associated with a couple hail cores, a tornado threat continues
near the front. The severe threat drops off quickly further north.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

The warm front has been slowing making progress northward today
and currently runs east-west from just south of Jacksonville to
just south of Paris. Despite some storms producing outflow
already and nudging front southward near SPI, expect the front to
surge northward over the next few hours to be near PIA-BMI-DNV by
6 PM.

Expect thunderstorms to increase in coverage, especially in the
vicinity of the warm front, by late afternoon. With effective
shear of +50 kts and MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg south of the front,
severe storms are quite favorable. While models have storms off
and on this afternoon, the most organized (exhibiting high updraft
helicity) look to be most favored around 6 pm or later. Central
IL south of Jacksonville to Paris is currently in an Enhanced
Risk...with a Slight Risk north of that to Macomb to Bloomington
and east to the IN border. With storms likely firing in the
vicinity of the front and moving generally eastward, multiple
rounds of storms are possible over central IL late today and
tonight. Storms to the west may grow upscale into a line of storms
later in the night and push east across central IL eventually.
The hires models indicate a reasonable worst case scenario (LPMM)
being a swath of 3-4" of rain east-west across central IL centered
over Lincoln/Springfield, with locally higher amounts. This
supports a Flash Flood Watch that has been issued through 1 PM
tomorrow.

The surface low moves through the area late tonight, with another
round of showers/storms late in the morning and through the
mid afternoon hours. Expect MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and over
50 kts of deep shear once again. Currently, a Marginal Risk for
severe weather exists in the eastern counties for Tuesday ahead
of the cold front, which should clear the southeastern zones by
late afternoon. Southwest winds will be strong tomorrow ahead of
the cold front in the east as well, where a Wind Advisory may be
needed.

Tuesday night, expect the front to usher in some rather cold air,
-6C at 850 mb. The low will be in lower MI come Wednesday morning,
 with rain/snow wrapping around the low in a backside
 TROWAL...possibly bringing some light snow accumulations to the
 northern parts of central IL including the Peoria and BloNo
 areas. Have kept accumulations rather light for now, but the
 potential exists for up to an inch of snow late Tues night/early
 Wed morning. The snow combined with gusty northwest winds may
 make for significant change in the weather for the commute on
 Wednesday morning.

The wrap-around precipitation should end late Wednesday night
across the area but another chilly day is on tap for Thursday
(similar to Wednesday with highs in the mid 40s). An upper ridge
then moves into the area for Saturday, ahead of another upper low
that will move east into the plains states. Showers and storms
will return to the area for Sunday, with highs near 70 back in the
area by Monday.

Knutsvig

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

The TAFs for the 00Z issuance highlight an area of showers and
thunderstorms that will intensify over the next couple of hours.
We currently see an area of light rain/showers across central IL.
But expect thunderstorms to increase in the vicinity of this area
of precipitation. Expect periods of showers and storms through the
night tonight, with the best chance for thunder coming early,
through 06Z. Will amend to add TS to TAFs later in 2-3 hours if
models and trends support TS at specific terminals. Expect IFR
conditions to return tonight as well in the areas that have
improved. Winds will pick up in the afternoon tomorrow as well,
with gusts to 30 kts possible. Will add to later TAFs as
certainty increases.

Knutsvig

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for ILZ037-038-041>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
332 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

ILZ027>031-036>038-022045-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-
332 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Multiple rounds of scattered thunderstorms are expected this
evening into tonight. A few of the storms will be capable of
producing hail to near quarter size.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Breezy northwest wind gusts of 35-45 mph are expected on Wednesday.

Low temperatures near freezing Thursday and Friday mornings may
cause some damage to early emerging vegetation.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening and tonight.

ILZ040>053-022045-
Schuyler-Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-
Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-
332 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight.
Severe weather is possible during the afternoon and evening, with
large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary risks. An isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out near and south of the I-72 corridor. In
addition, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches through tonight could
lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Breezy northwest wind gusts of 35-45 mph are expected on Wednesday.

Low temperatures near freezing Thursday and Friday mornings may
cause some damage to early emerging vegetation.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening into tonight.

ILZ054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-022045-
Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-
Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
332 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight.
Severe weather is possible, with large hail, damaging winds, and a
few tornadoes possible. In addition, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches through tonight may lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Another round of severe weather is possible Tuesday, late morning
into the afternoon, with large hail and damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this evening into tonight.

Erwin

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
656 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     Rain             Taylorville Airport     39.53N 89.33W
04/01/2024  M1.51 Inch       Christian          IL   AWOS

&&

Erwin

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
700 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 PM     Hail             3 NW Assumption         39.55N 89.09W
04/01/2024  M1.25 Inch       Christian          IL   Public

&&

BMD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
750 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     Rain             2 NW Lovington          39.73N 88.66W
04/01/2024  M1.56 Inch       Moultrie           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station WORI2 2.0 NW Lovington.

0740 PM     Rain             1 NNE Camargo           39.81N 88.16W
04/01/2024  M1.46 Inch       Douglas            IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 2488D Camargo.

0735 PM     Rain             1 NNE Eureka            40.73N 89.27W
04/01/2024  M1.31 Inch       Woodford           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station CW1740 Eureka.

0735 PM     Rain             3 NW Kirksville         39.60N 88.71W
04/01/2024  M1.14 Inch       Moultrie           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FW6864 Sullivan.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
759 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 PM     Rain             Morrisonville           39.41N 89.45W
04/01/2024  M1.09 Inch       Christian          IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station GW3839 MORRISONVILLE.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
824 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     Rain             Morrisonville           39.41N 89.45W
04/01/2024  M1.74 Inch       Christian          IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station GW3839 MORRISONVILLE.

0800 PM     Rain             2 NW Lovington          39.73N 88.66W
04/01/2024  M1.66 Inch       Moultrie           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station WORI2 2.0 NW Lovington.

0810 PM     Rain             1 NNE Camargo           39.81N 88.16W
04/01/2024  M1.61 Inch       Douglas            IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 2488D Camargo.

0815 PM     Rain             3 NW Kirksville         39.60N 88.71W
04/01/2024  M1.43 Inch       Moultrie           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FW6864 Sullivan.

0800 PM     Rain             Chesterville            39.70N 88.39W
04/01/2024  M1.12 Inch       Douglas            IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station CTVI2 1.5 NE Chesterville.

0820 PM     Rain             1 SE West Peoria        40.69N 89.62W
04/01/2024  M1.03 Inch       Peoria             IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station AW321 PEORIA.

&&