Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Lincoln, IL

087 
WGUS73 KILX 051648
FFSILX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1048 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

ILC137-167-051658-
/O.CAN.KILX.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240305T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Morgan IL-Sangamon IL-
1048 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN SANGAMON AND 
SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat.

&&

LAT...LON 3960 9029 3966 9030 3979 8999 3996 8957
      3989 8935 3966 8996 3954 9029

$$

Erwin

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
536 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slow moving cold front and associated showers/storms will push
  out of the area later today. A few of the storms through this
  morning could become strong with hail being the primary threat.

- Unseasonably mild temperatures stick around through the end of
  the week with high temperatures peaking in the 50s to low 60s
  each afternoon.

- Our next chance for precipitation arrives late in the week,
  looking to bring beneficial rainfall and perhaps some storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

Surface analysis early this morning depicts a slow moving cold front
stretched from roughly Lexington to Taylorville IL as of 2 am.
Widely scattered showers and storms have increased in coverage west
of I-55 over the last 1-2 hours with a newer area of storms that
recently developed presumably along an outflow boundary in eastern
Illinois. The front and convection will gradually spread east
overnight, reaching the state line by mid morning. The severe
weather threat has greatly decreased with the better shear displaced
to off to the west. MUCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg could support a few
stronger storms through this morning, posing a threat for brief
heavy rainfall, hail, and lightning.

The cold front will push east of the area this afternoon, putting an
end to precipitation. Forecast soundings show low-level moisture
getting trapped beneath an inversion, which will keep low stratus
present through a majority of the day and what looks like most of
the night as well. Ultimately increased cloud cover to 100% through
this evening before showing a gradual improvement overnight, but
that may still be too optimistic. Cooler (yet still warmer than
normal) temperatures will be seen today with high temperatures
looking to range from the 50s to middle 60s.

Zonal/low meridional flow will be in place aloft going into midweek.
A surface high working across southern Canada will stretch southward
through the Midwest states, keeping things dry for Wednesday and
most of Thursday. Further west an upper trough will move onshore the
southern California coast Wednesday night and then into the desert
southwest Thursday night. Southwest flow will set up over the Middle
Mississippi Valley late in the week, allowing a shortwave trough to
eject northward toward the Ohio Valley by the start of the weekend.
Out ahead of the wave, several impulses will spark the development
of showers as early as Thursday night with waves of precipitation
continuing through Saturday. Rainfall amounts look to be beneficial
with early indications suggesting amounts exceeding 1 inch in spots.
Better parameters for severe weather look to remain south of the
region, though machine learning probabilities highlight southeast
parts of the state possibly getting in on some action (5% chance)
Friday afternoon/evening. Ensemble guidance only shows a few hundred
J/kg of CAPE during this time, though bulk shear could approach 40
kts.

Temperatures return to seasonal norms by the weekend (middle 40s to
low 50s) behind a cold front. Temperatures look to rebound back to
well above normal values by early next week as upper ridging
amplifies just west of here and spills into the central CONUS. The
Climate Prediction Center indicates that temperatures through next
week and into next weekend will stay warmer than normal (50%+
chance) with near to above normal chances for precipitation.

NMA

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 536 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

Showers and storms are ongoing this morning, associated with a
slow moving cold front. Winds will shift to the north behind the
front if they haven't already, remaining mostly northerly through
the TAF period. MVFR to IFR stratus will become likely areawide
this morning and persist through at least tonight. Most airfields
should return back to VFR flight conditions by late tonight or
Wednesday morning.

NMA

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
305 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-060915-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
305 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue this morning through this
afternoon, gradually shifting east through the day. The overall
severe threat is low, but a few of the stronger storms could produce
locally heavy rain and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There will another chance for thunderstorms Friday and Friday night
south of I-74. It is too early to determine the severe threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

Deubelbeiss

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
212 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

ILZ046-050845-
Vermilion-
212 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN VERMILION COUNTY THROUGH
245 AM CST...

At 211 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Hoopeston to near Fairmount. Movement was
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Danville, Hoopeston, Westville, Tilton, Catlin, Oakwood, Rossville,
Sidell, Vermilion Regional Airport, Bismarck, Belgium, Henning,
Jamaica, and Alvin.

This includes Interstate 74 between mile markers 206 and 220.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3989 8786 4049 8771 4049 8753 4009 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 0811Z 218DEG 33KT 4045 8765 4000 8778

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Deubelbeiss

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
254 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0239 AM     Hail             3 E Danville            40.13N 87.58W
03/05/2024  E1.00 inch       Vermilion          IL   Public

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
359 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

ILZ051-052-051030-
Sangamon-Christian-
359 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL CHRISTIAN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SANGAMON COUNTIES THROUGH 430 AM CST...

At 358 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pawnee, or 12 miles east of Virden, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Taylorville, Pawnee, Kincaid, Edinburg, Jeisyville, Tovey, Bulpitt,
Sangchris Lake State Park, Sharpsburg, and Langleyville.

This includes Interstate 55 between mile markers 77 and 78.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3952 8953 3952 8965 3953 8966 3975 8947
      3959 8923 3945 8953
TIME...MOT...LOC 0958Z 225DEG 29KT 3956 8954

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

NMA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
533 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 AM     Rain             1 NW Knoxville          40.91N 90.29W
03/05/2024  M1.09 inch       Knox               IL   Cocorahs

&&