Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
325 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure and a strong cold front will move east across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today, bringing showers,
thunderstorms, and windy conditions. High pressure will build
quickly east into the Ohio Valley tonight, resulting in clearing
skies, drier air, and much colder temperatures. The high will
persist over the region into Thursday with below normal
temperatures expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Potent cold front trailing Michigan low pressure is approaching
the ILN area. It is still likely that severe weather will
develop this morning given the strong wind fields and ample
instability ahead of the front. Convection is filling in along
the front, and tornado watch 27 remains in effect through 6am.
Damaging straight line winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes and
torrential downpours leading to flooding all remain possible. A
few tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued
to our west, and as convection reaches our western counties, we
are beginning to issue some warnings in our area as well.

Since precip to the west is expanding, categorical pops still
seem appropriate for this morning. Some locations may measure
over an inch of rainfall, even with this fast moving system.
Dry weather will move in this afternoon as subsidence arrives on
a west wind behind the cold front. Those synoptic scale winds
are likely to gust over 30 knots. Holding off on a wind advisory
for now since it appears strongest gusts will stay north of the
area. Temperatures are forecast to plummet from the 50s and 60s
into the 30s this afternoon as the colder air rushes in.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Skies will be mostly clear tonight and sunny on Thursday thanks
to 1035mb high pressure tracking across Kentucky. As winds
subside under 20 knots, temperatures will fall a few degrees below
normal, with lows in the 20s tonight followed by highs in the
40s on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weakening shortwave will be moving through the larger flow,
opening up as it nears the Ohio Valley region at the start of the
extended period. This translates to a surface wave bringing a shot
of rain (possibly some wet snow mixed in at onset) to the area
during the day on Friday. After this system scoots off to the east,
the area dries out for the remainder of the weekend with weak
ridging allowing for a warming trend. By Sunday, high temperatures
are forecast to be in the upper 60s/ low 70s.

The next notable disturbance looks to encroach into the area by the
start of the following working week. A closed low off to our west
will move northeast of our area, dragging a cold front through the
region. However, before that happens, we should get warm sectored
briefly and temperatures Monday rise into the 70s. Rounds of rain
arrive sometime on Monday prior to the cold front moving through.
After this, we'll feel a notable drop in temperatures as cold air is
ushered in behind the system.

Looking out into the extended, it appears that we'll stay active
with chances for precipitation continuing into mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Aviation is to be affected by strong thunderstorms and winds
associated with a potent cold front. Thunderstorms coverage is
expected to increase rapidly overnight as the front approaches.
Should see +TSRA at all sites by 12z. Ceilings and visibilities
will fall to MVFR as the boundary layer moistens. Winds on the
synoptic scale will gust over 30 knots at most sites. Wind
direction will shift to west with frontal passage. Improvement
to VFR is forecast as drier air moves in later in the forecast.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible again Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Coniglio

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
403 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-064-065-074-282115-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union-Delaware-Miami-
Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin-Licking-Pickaway-Fairfield-Hocking-
403 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Ohio and west central
Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly later this evening and
continue into the overnight. A few severe storms will be possible
late this evening through tonight. The main severe threat will be
damaging wind and isolated large hail. However, a tornado or two will
also be possible.

Outside of storms, it will be breezy to windy with wind gusts up to
40 mph possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Winds may gust up to 40 mph on Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ060>063-070>073-077>082-
088-282115-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Butler-Warren-Clinton-
Ross-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
403 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, northeast Kentucky, northern Kentucky, central
Ohio, south central Ohio, southwest Ohio and west central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly later this evening and
continue into the overnight. Some of the storms will likely be severe.
The main severe threat will be damaging wind and large hail, though a
few tornadoes are possible and a strong tornado cannot be ruled out.
In addition, localized flash flooding is possible for any area seeing
multiple rounds of storms.

Outside of storms, it will be breezy to windy with wind gusts up to
40 mph possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Winds may gust up to 40 mph on Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
247 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

INZ058-059-066-OHZ060-070-280815-
Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Butler OH-Preble OH-
247 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FRANKLIN COUNTY...UNION AND SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES
...SOUTHWESTERN PREBLE COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTIES
THROUGH 300 AM EST...

At 247 AM EST, a strong thunderstorm was located near Brookville,
moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to
         vegetation.

Locations impacted include...
Oxford, Brookville, Liberty, West College Corner, Salem, Reily,
Blooming Grove, Columbia, Metamora, College Corner, Mount Carmel,
Dunlapsville, Whitewater State Park, Goodwins Corner, Mounds State
Recreation Area, Cottage Grove, Morning Sun, Alquina,
Charlottesville, and Fairhaven.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM EST for southeastern
and east central Indiana...and southwestern and west central Ohio.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3938 8510 3958 8521 3970 8480 3964 8471
      3943 8469
TIME...MOT...LOC 0747Z 246DEG 49KT 3948 8504

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hatzos

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
345 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

OHZ042-060-280915-
Darke OH-Preble OH-
345 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
PREBLE...SOUTHERN DARKE AND NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH
415 AM EST...

At 345 AM EST, a cluster of strong thunderstorms were located near
New Paris, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail, frequent
         cloud-to-ground lightning, and very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to
         vegetation. Lightning can cause serious injury or death.
         Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Arcanum, Bradford, New Paris, New Madison, Webster, Wayne
Lakes, Gettysburg, Eldorado, Verona, West Manchester, Pitsburg,
Hollansburg, Gordon, Palestine, Ithaca, Castine, Union Corners,
Sharpeye, and Abbottsville.

This includes I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 1 and 6.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

When thunder roars, go indoors! Do not stay in the open or seek
shelter under trees when lightning threatens.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If these storms becomes
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM EST for west central
Ohio.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4011 8480 4022 8444 3992 8443 3992 8448
      3990 8449 3980 8481
TIME...MOT...LOC 0845Z 239DEG 49KT 3991 8480

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
358 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

INZ059-OHZ060-061-280930-
Union IN-Montgomery OH-Preble OH-
358 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE
AND CENTRAL UNION COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...PREBLE...
SOUTHEASTERN DARKE...WESTERN MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHWESTERN MIAMI
COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH 430 AM EST...

At 357 AM EST, a strong thunderstorm was located near Eaton, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to
         vegetation.

Locations impacted include...
Dayton, Trotwood, Vandalia, Englewood, Eaton, Moraine, West
Carrollton, Liberty, Camden, Lewisburg, West Alexandria, Gratis, West
College Corner, Clayton, Union, Salem, Brookville, New Lebanon,
Farmersville, and Shiloh.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 4 and 33.
 I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 49 and 50, and between mile
markers 63 and 65.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM EST for east central
Indiana...and west central Ohio.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3968 8495 3972 8482 3981 8481 3992 8450
      3992 8418 3969 8422 3957 8481 3958 8503
TIME...MOT...LOC 0857Z 245DEG 38KT 3973 8469

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hatzos

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
411 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

INZ059-066-OHZ060-070-280945-
Union IN-Franklin IN-Butler OH-Preble OH-
411 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN
COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...SOUTHERN UNION AND SOUTHEASTERN
FAYETTE COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHWESTERN PREBLE COUNTY
IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN
OHIO THROUGH 445 AM EST...

At 410 AM EST, a cluster of strong thunderstorms were located near
Brookville, moving east at 70 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Oxford, Batesville, Brookville, Liberty, Camden, West College Corner,
Oldenburg, Darrtown, Lake Santee, Salem, Reily, Blooming Grove,
Metamora, Laurel, Scipio, College Corner, Somerville, Cedar Grove,
Mount Carmel, and Dunlapsville.

This includes I-74 in Indiana between mile markers 145 and 148.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If these storms becomes
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM EST for southeastern
and east central Indiana...and southwestern and west central Ohio.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3953 8519 3953 8504 3959 8504 3966 8488
      3970 8459 3938 8471 3930 8529 3948 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 0910Z 255DEG 59KT 3948 8507

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
413 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

OHZ051>053-280945-
Champaign OH-Clark OH-Miami OH-
413 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
SHELBY...CHAMPAIGN...SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN...SOUTHEASTERN DARKE...
NORTHWESTERN CLARK AND NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES IN WEST
CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWESTERN UNION COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO AND MIAMI
COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH 445 AM EST...

At 413 AM EST, a strong thunderstorm was located near Troy, moving
east at 70 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, frequent cloud-to-ground
         lightning, and very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Lightning can cause serious injury or
         death. Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Troy, Piqua, Urbana, Tipp City, New Carlisle, West
Milton, Northridge, Covington, St. Paris, North Lewisburg, Pleasant
Hill, Brown, Union, Christiansburg, North Hampton, Laura, Fletcher,
Tremont City, and Donnelsville.

This includes I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 66 and 83.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

When thunder roars, go indoors! Do not stay in the open or seek
shelter under trees when lightning threatens.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If this storm becomes
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM EST for west central
Ohio.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4023 8351 3992 8374 3992 8443 4012 8443
      4019 8413 4018 8402 4022 8402 4025 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 0913Z 255DEG 59KT 4000 8425

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
430 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

OHZ060-061-070-071-281015-
Montgomery OH-Warren OH-Butler OH-Preble OH-
430 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
PREBLE...CENTRAL BUTLER...NORTHWESTERN WARREN AND SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES THROUGH 515 AM EST...

At 429 AM EST, a strong thunderstorm was located near Oxford, moving
east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, frequent cloud-to-ground
         lightning, and very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Lightning can cause serious injury or
         death. Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hamilton, Kettering, Middletown, Miamisburg, Lebanon, Springboro,
Monroe, Trenton, Franklin, Carlisle, South Middletown, West
Carrollton, Seven Mile, Williamsdale, Hunter, Darrtown, Germantown,
New Miami, Millville, and Somerville.

This includes I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 28 and 45.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

When thunder roars, go indoors! Do not stay in the open or seek
shelter under trees when lightning threatens.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If this storm becomes
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM EST for southwestern
and west central Ohio.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3935 8480 3956 8465 3961 8463 3967 8411
      3944 8418
TIME...MOT...LOC 0929Z 257DEG 47KT 3946 8477

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KC