Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
808 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms are expected through
Thursday amidst a continued warm and humid pattern. Afterwards,
cooler and slightly drier conditions are expected, though shower
chances can not be ruled out through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Showers are starting to spring up west and south of the CWA and
are expected to fill in relatively quickly with daytime heating
creating a rapidly destabilizing atmosphere. They will quickly
become deeper convection with thunderstorms. If discrete cells
maintain a decent margin from surrounding upstream storms, shear
and instability will act to promote supercell activity. Right
turning cells will also be a favored track given the southerly
inflow of moisture and right-handed curved hodographs.

Models remain in a various state of how these storms evolve,
but they should end nw-se overnight. A few depict a brief linear
evolution in the southern/southeast forecast area with training,
but most have pushed the precip into the south by 09Z and out of
the CWA by 12Z.

Overnight lows will drop from near 60 in the northwest to near
65 in northern KY and southern OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Deeply uniform southwest flow develops ahead of a l/w trough
north of the region with a wsw-ene orientation. Later in the
day, s/w energy will cross and mark the beginning of the next
round of showers and storms. Indications are that these storms
may be knocking on southwest CWA towards 00Z but the consensus
is to hold off until after this time but rapidly ramp up the
precip. Overnight, with a continual flow of moisture leading to
pwats >1.5". If the storms train in a nw-se orientation as some
markers are favoring, flooding will become the primary threat.

The favored location of the heavier rain looks to be over the
southeast third of the CWA, ending by daybreak Thursday.

Unless a decently opaque blowoff of cirrus precedes this rain,
temperatures are expected to reach 80 in the north, 85 in the
south. More of the same with the humid airmass is expected
overnight. Lows will again be in the upper 50s in the north, low
60s for the remainder of the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thursday will see more dry air working in, but lingering lighter
showers remain a possibility in most of the region, slightly
less so in the southwest. This is as yet another s/w piece of
energy gets pushed ene ahead of the l/w trough, prompting a
surface circulation to move east through the CWA. Trailing this
surface low, a cold front will turn winds sharply to the north
overnight, with lows dropping to a significantly cooler range
from the upper 40s to around 50.

This cooler air bottoms out highs on Friday in the lower 60s,
and clearing sky cover overnight drops overnight readings to
within a degree or two of 45.

The next upper trough works in on Saturday, with a ssw flow over
the region. The upper trough and potential surface circulation
will maximize the threat of rain in the extended forecast
Saturday afternoon. While this sw flow will only bump highs a
little bit on Saturday from Friday, lows should be a carbon-
copy from the night before. This flow will begin to modify the
airmass a little warmer each day through the remainder of the
forecast.

A not unusual variance in model depictions for the longer term
necessitates some inclusion of lower chance pops for both
Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures are expected to trend
towards normal as they should, and likely rise to above normal
Mon/Tue, but not to the extent that we've been seeing in the
here and now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
In warm and unstable airmass an axis of strong to severe storms
has developed to our west on a pre-frontal trof axis. These
storms to move east impacting all TAF sites this evening into
the overnight hours. Strong to damaging winds, large hail and a
few tornadoes will be possible with these storms. Storms to end
from northwest to southeast by about 06Z.

Some fog and low cigs will be possible as a front slips into the
Ohio Valley overnight. Have limited impacts to MVFR category at
all but KLUK valley location.

Any fog that develops will improve quickly Wednesday morning.
VFR conditions thru the remainder of the day with thunderstorms
redeveloping from the southwest during the evening. Have a
mention at the 30 hour KCVG TAF site.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night.
MVFR/IFR CIGs are possible Wednesday night into early Thursday
and again on Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
519 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072-
074-080930-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-
Logan-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Licking-Preble-
Montgomery-Greene-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Hocking-
519 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, central Ohio, southwest Ohio and west central
Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

One or more rounds of storms are expected late this afternoon
through the evening. Strong to severe storms are likely. The primary
threats are large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes will also
be possible.

Heavy rain associated with the thunderstorm activity may also lead
to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional storms, a few strong to severe, will be possible
Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. Large hail and damaging
winds are the primary threats.

Heavy rain associated with the thunderstorm activity may also lead
to localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ073-077>082-088-080930-
Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-
Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Ross-
Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
519 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Indiana, northeast
Kentucky, northern Kentucky, south central Ohio and southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

One or more rounds of storms are expected late this afternoon
through the evening. Strong to severe storms are likely. The primary
threats are large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes will also
be possible.

Heavy rain associated with the thunderstorm activity may also lead
to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional storms, some strong to severe, will be possible Wednesday
evening into Wednesday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the
primary threats. A tornado or two will also be possible.

Heavy rain associated with the thunderstorm activity may also lead
to localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
927 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 N Gettysburg          40.14N 84.50W
05/07/2024                   Darke              OH   Amateur Radio

            Damage to multiple farm buildings. Possible
            tornado.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1011 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

INZ066-074-OHZ070-077-080245-
Franklin IN-Dearborn IN-Hamilton OH-Butler OH-
1011 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
FRANKLIN...NORTHEASTERN DEARBORN...HAMILTON AND SOUTHERN BUTLER
COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM EDT...

At 1011 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bright, moving
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to
         vegetation.

Locations impacted include...
Cincinnati, Hamilton, Fairfield, Norwood, Forest Park, Sharonville,
Monroe, Blue Ash, Springdale, Reading, Montgomery, Harrison, North
College Hill, Madeira, Wyoming, Cheviot, Mount Healthy, Deer Park,
Bright, and Finneytown.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 4 and 17.
 I-74 in Indiana between mile markers 163 and 171.
 I-74 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 19.
 I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 4 and 26.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM EDT for southeastern
Indiana...and southwestern Ohio.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3919 8498 3938 8496 3946 8436 3911 8435
TIME...MOT...LOC 0211Z 263DEG 35KT 3929 8489

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

Clark

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1103 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

INZ074-KYZ091>093-OHZ077-080345-
Dearborn IN-Boone KY-Kenton KY-Campbell KY-Hamilton OH-
1103 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
DEARBORN...NORTHERN KENTON...NORTHERN CAMPBELL...NORTHERN BOONE AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 PM EDT...

At 1102 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Greendale,
moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to
         vegetation.

Locations impacted include...
Cincinnati, Covington, Norwood, Erlanger, Fort Thomas, Newport, Blue
Ash, Reading, Montgomery, North College Hill, Madeira, Wyoming,
Cheviot, Fort Mitchell, Villa Hills, Highland Heights, Mount Healthy,
Bellevue, Deer Park, and Fort Wright.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 15.
 I-74 in Ohio between mile markers 6 and 19.
 I-75 in Kentucky between mile markers 187 and 191.
 I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 13.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM EDT for southeastern
Indiana...northern Kentucky...and southwestern Ohio.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3909 8493 3921 8493 3925 8433 3902 8434
TIME...MOT...LOC 0302Z 267DEG 33KT 3914 8485

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Clark

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1111 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

KYZ093-OHZ073-078>080-080345-
Campbell KY-Clermont OH-Highland OH-Brown OH-Ross OH-
1111 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTON...
CENTRAL CAMPBELL...SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON...CENTRAL CLERMONT...
NORTHWESTERN BROWN...NORTHWESTERN PIKE...HIGHLAND AND SOUTHERN ROSS
COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 PM EDT...

At 1111 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Greenfield to Coldstream, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to
         vegetation.

Locations impacted include...
Chillicothe, Alexandria, Highland Heights, Hillsboro, Taylor Mill,
Greenfield, Amelia, Mount Orab, Wilder, Bethel, New Richmond,
Williamsburg, Batavia, Lynchburg, Silver Grove, Marshall, Sardinia,
Bainbridge, Melbourne, and Highland Holiday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM EDT for northern
Kentucky...and south central and southwestern Ohio.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3919 8330 3920 8335 3917 8336 3894 8399
      3899 8445 3901 8448 3905 8438 3902 8432
      3907 8431 3922 8381 3937 8339 3935 8287
TIME...MOT...LOC 0311Z 268DEG 28KT 3935 8339 3904 8435

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Clark

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