Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
359 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms tonight. High
pressure will provide drier weather on Thursday and Friday. The
threat for showers and thunderstorms returns during the weekend
when a couple of disturbances are forecast to travel across the
Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Showers and thunderstorms have been developing ahead of a cold
front situated over Indiana. These lines and cells have less
coverage than expected, though coverage should increase as the
front reaches the unstable air in place here. With the front
moving through this evening, still going with likely to
categorical pops. Severe threat appears diminished due to lack
of organization into stronger cells and lines of storms.
Isolated heavy downpours may be observed from an environment
containing 1.6 inches PWAT and favorable warm cloud depth.
Drier air working in behind the front should bring an end to
precip later tonight. Lows are forecast to range from the low
60s in the west to the upper 60s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will be east, while high pressure settles to the
west. This will leave ILN in a weakly cyclonic flow between the
two systems. Due to a general lack of moisture and shallow, weak
instability, it appears we will observe dry weather Thursday and
Thursday night.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Thursday with highs in
the upper 70s to low 80s. Additional cold advection and
radiational cooling will allow lows in the mid and upper 50s
Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level disturbances will keep some precipitation chances around
at times from Friday through Monday.  There is a limited amount of
moisture and therefore do not have overly high precipitation
chances.  Dry conditions are then expected for Tuesday through
Wednesday.

Breezy conditions will be present for the weekend Friday through
Sunday, especially during the daytime hours with wind gusts around
30 to 35 mph at times.

There will be plenty of 70s for high temperatures in the extended.
with a few 60s will be possible Friday and 80s for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Aviation will be impacted by a cold front and associated
convection with lowered ceilings and visibilities. Clusters of
showers and thunderstorms developing in moist and unstable air
ahead of the front are expected at all sites. MVFR conditions
are forecast with the showers and thunderstorms. Winds outside
of storms may gust around 20 knots this afternoon. Kept higher
thunderstorm gusts out of the forecast for now due to
uncertainty of timing and location. Improvement to VFR may occur
this evening as drier works in immediately behind the front.
MVFR ceilings may then reform later tonight in persistent low
level moisture. VFR is likely Thursday as high pressure takes
over.

OUTLOOK...MVFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday
night and Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Coniglio

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
504 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-060915-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-
Greene-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-
Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
504 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, northeast Kentucky, northern Kentucky, central
Ohio, south central Ohio, southwest Ohio and west central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorm activity will spark across the region this afternoon.
Some storms may contain strong downburst winds. In the evening,
these storms will become more widespread ahead of a cold front. The
front will also provide a significant source of lift as it moves east
and could strengthen ongoing storms to produce damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
149 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

OHZ035-043-051815-
Auglaize OH-Shelby OH-
149 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF AUGLAIZE AND MERCER
COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

At 148 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Fort Loramie,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail, and very heavy
         rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to
         vegetation. Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sidney, Wapakoneta, New Bremen, Minster, Newport, Anna, Fort
Loramie, Jackson Center, Botkins, New Knoxville, Moulton,
Kettlersville, Fryburg, Montra, Egypt, Lake Loramie State Park,
Mccartyville, and Swanders.

This includes I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 93 and 111.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4056 8401 4035 8407 4022 8433 4028 8444
      4035 8444 4037 8446 4039 8445 4058 8429
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 225DEG 30KT 4033 8435

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hatzos

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
423 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NE Midland            39.33N 83.87W
06/04/2024                   Clinton            OH   Dept of Highways

            Trees down.

&&

AN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
443 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

OHZ026-044-045-052115-
Logan OH-Hardin OH-Union OH-
443 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
LOGAN...HARDIN...AND UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

At 442 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bellefontaine,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, half inch hail, and very heavy
         rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bellefontaine, Russells Point, De Graff, Belle Center, West
Mansfield, Northwood, Mount Victory, Rushsylvania, Huntsville,
Ridgeway, Zanesfield, Logansville, New Jerusalem, Byhalia, Mcmorran,
Mentzer, Big Springs, Bloom Center, and Lewistown.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4031 8397 4045 8397 4063 8352 4047 8342
      4035 8355
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 242DEG 24KT 4042 8375

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hatzos