Storm Warning 1, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1231 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A potent storm system will drag a cold front across the area
bringing strong winds and severe storms Tuesday. High pressure
brings quiet weather until another unsettled bout of weather
returns with the next front on Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes coming down the track in the late morning
forecast update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
5H ridge axis nearly overhead this morning, will slide east of
the area this afternoon and tonight. This will allow cirrus to
overspread the FA from the SW as the Gulf of Mexico opens up. At
the sfc, center of sfc high to progress off the Mid-Atlantic
Coast and offshore today into tonight. This evening a coastal
warm front develops just off the NC and SC Coasts, and pushes
onshore while lifting northward during the pre-dawn Tue hrs. As
a result, look for weak stratiform light rains to develop ahead
of the coastal warm front with pcpn becoming more showery in
nature after its passage inland and north of the FA. Mid level
cloud deck to dominate this evening then lower ahead of the warm
front as well as from the ongoing isentropic lift ahead of it.
Could see less than one tenth of an inch closer to the coast and
between one tenth to one quarter of an inch along and west of
I-95, by sunrise Tue. Max temps today at or slightly below
normal. Lows tonight likely occurring this evening followed by
steady or slowly rising tempo trend towards morning, especially
from the immediate coast to just east of the I-95 corridor as
WAA advection occurs after the WFP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A potent storm system is expected to bring gusty winds, heavy
rain, and potentially severe storms to the area Tuesday
afternoon into evening hours. A strengthening occluded surface
cyclone over western TN Tuesday morning will be moving northeast
into the Great Lakes region by nighttime just ahead of a strong
upper cutoff low. Warm front will be lifting north across the
CWA daybreak Tuesday, with increasing dewpoints and well above
normal temps during the day. Due to abundant cloud cover,
uncertain how much if any instability will occur early Tuesday
afternoon. There is potential for some discrete supercell
development later in the afternoon due to strengthening wind
field, depending on instability availability. As low level
helicity begins to increase as well, any supercells that do
develop may become tornadic. A Wind Advisory has been issued
CWA-wide, with a High Wind Watch for the immediate coastline,
for Tuesday afternoon and evening, with wind gusts currently
forecasted up to 45-50mph (potentially higher along the coast).
High winds may blow down large tree limbs and unsecured outdoor
objects, and scattered power outages may occur.

Primary convective concern will be a squall line progged to
approach the area late Tuesday afternoon/early evening ahead of
or just along the cold front. With 0-6km shear almost off the
charts (70kt winds at 2 kft) and strong helicity values, if
storms remain surface based it will not take much for the storms
to bring widespread damaging wind gusts to the surface along
with a risk for tornadoes. Therefore SPC has upgraded the area
to an Enhanced risk (3 out of 5) for severe weather Tuesday.

Outside of gusty winds and severe weather potential, heavy rain
is also expected Tuesday. Since the primary rainmaker is
expected to be a quick moving QLCS, it may limit flooding
potential with QPF around 1.25-1.5". With most of the area
receiving around 300% normal rainfall over the last few weeks
however, expect to see river levels rise midweek due to high
runoff. Along the immediate coast and Lower Cape Fear River at
Downtown ILM, minor coastal flooding is forecasted with both
high tides Tuesday with this system. A High Surf Advisory is
also expected to be issued later today for Tuesday into Tuesday
night as seas of 10-15 ft approach the coast.

Cold front well offshore by Wednesday morning. Tightened
pressure gradient between strong low to the north and high
pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will maintain breezy west winds
Wednesday, with gusts up to 30mph in the afternoon. CAA will
keep high temps in the low 50s. High pressure begins to build in
from the southwest Wednesday night, with low temps in the low
30s as lingering winds hinder further cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Quiet weather continues Thursday as high pressure prevails with
near normal temperatures. Another storm system looks to impact
the Southeast Friday/Friday night. 0z model guidance has a
stronger surface cyclone compared to previous runs, moving
northeast across MS valley into Great Lakes region on Friday.
Too soon for any details regarding impacts, though gusty winds,
heavy rain, and thunder (depending on timing) are on the table.
Quiet weather currently forecasted for next weekend with zonal
flow dominating.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR for the remainder of today and early tonight. Clouds lower
overnight into MVFR range. Weather turns active very quickly
starting Tuesday morning. Gradient winds increase as the day
wears on. Even with the surface winds elevating quickly winds
just above the surface increase so precipitously that LLWS
criteria will be met area-wide by late morning inland and midday
coast. A severe squall line will also be approaching from the
west-it's timing a bit uncertain but it will be slated for soon
after the TAF fcst time...unless some of the quicker solutions
verify in which case they will be bearing down on LBT and FLO.

Extended Outlook...MVFR to dominate at all terminals at the
start, Tue morning. Further deterioration in flight
restrictions to occupy the Tue thru Tue evening time frame.
Expect moderate to heavy rain(aftn-evening), strong gradient
winds with higher gusts thruout the day, peaking late aftn thru
the evening. And a threat for severe shower or thunderstorm
activity. Expect improving conditions by daybreak Wed with VFR
common, however strong and gusty gradient winds will occur thru
the day Wed. High pressure to build in Thu into Fri followed by
the next low pressure system late Fri into Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
Looking at veering wind trend this period, with NW-N 10-20 kt
winds early this morning. As the center of sfc high pressure
moves off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, winds become NE 10-20 kt.
Winds further veer to the ENE-E 15 to 20 kt this afternoon and
evening as a coastal warm front develops just offshore. The warm
front will push onshore and inland during the pre-dawn Tue hrs
with winds further veering to the SE with increasing speeds to
SCA conditions as the sfc pg further tightens. Pcpn will be
spotty this evening becoming more showery in nature after the
onshore movement of the warm front. Steady state seas in the 2
to 4 ft range with periods around 5 seconds will build to 4 to 8
ft at 6 to 8 second periods during the pre-dawn Tue hrs, ie.
after the WFP.

Tuesday through Friday Night...A potent storm system will bring
hazardous marine conditions to local waters beginning early
Tuesday, with worst conditions expected late Tuesday afternoon
through evening hours. A Gale Warning is in effect for the start
of the day, with a Storm Watch hoisted for 18z Tuesday through
midnight Wednesday. With winds of 50-60 kt only a few hundred
feet above the ocean surface late Tuesday on latest soundings,
it won't take much to produce storm force winds. Seas 6-8 ft
Tuesday morning increase quickly during the day with the
building SSE swell, reaching 10-15 ft by Tuesday afternoon at 9
second period. Best chance for thunderstorms over the waters
will be late Tuesday afternoon into early overnight hours as a
cold front approaches, with waterspouts possible due to strong
low level wind field.

Cold front moves across the waters by Wednesday morning, with
winds turning westerly though remaining gusty due to tightened
pressure gradient. Current forecast has Gale conditions ending
late Wednesday morning, with seas over 6 feet lingering into
Wednesday evening. High pressure Thursday will bring at least a
brief reprieve of benign marine conditions. Another storm system
looks to impact the area late Friday into Friday night with a
possible return of hazardous marine conditions.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033-039-055-058-059.
     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for SCZ054-056.
NC...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for NCZ087-096-
     099-105-107-109.
     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for NCZ106-108-110.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.
     Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DCH
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...ILM

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
612 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

AMZ250-252-254-256-091115-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
612 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY...
...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Small craft advisory conditions will quickly ramp up by midnight
tonight, reaching Gales by daybreak Tue.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.
   Storm Watch.

Small Craft Advisory conditions will follow Gales early Wed that
should last well into Wed night.

For late Fri into Sat...Strong low pressure will affect the area
with SCA conditions, along with the possibility of Gale conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ106-108-110-SCZ054-056-091115-
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Brunswick-Coastal Horry-
Coastal Georgetown-
612 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

For Tue into Tue night...Expansive and intense low pressure will
affect the area with strong gradient and gusty winds, heavy rainfall
up to 2 inches and severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and
isolated tornadoes.

Above-normal tides Tue could produce minor coastal flooding during
both high tides. HHigh Surf Advisory will likely be needed due to surf
conditions much greater than the 6 ft threshold Tue into Wed.

For late Fri into Sat...Strong low pressure may affect the area with
heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ107-091115-
Inland New Hanover-
612 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

For Tue into Tue night...Expansive and intense low pressure will
affect the area with strong gradient and gusty winds, heavy rainfall
up to 2 inches and severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and
isolated tornadoes.

Above-normal tides and runoff from the heavy rainfall could produce
minor coastal flooding along the lower Cape Fear River during both
high tides Tue which may continue into Wed.

For late Fri into Sat...Strong low pressure may affect the area with
heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ087-096-099-105-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-059-091115-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Inland Brunswick-Marlboro-
Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-Inland Georgetown-
Central Horry-Northern Horry-
612 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

For Tue into Tue night...Expansive and intense low pressure will
affect the area with strong gradient and gusty winds, heavy rainfall
up to 2 inches and severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and
isolated tornadoes.

For late Fri into Sat...Strong low pressure may affect the area with
heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.