Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
707 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will lead to increasing humidity and
storm chances this afternoon into this evening. A few strong to
severe thunderstorms possible, especially this evening. The
front will linger near the coast before moving offshore Monday
night into Tuesday. Behind the front, cooler and drier
conditions are expected by midweek. A weak trough may possibly
provide some rainfall, primarily along coastal areas, toward
the latter part of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Only minor changes to ongoing forecast. Isolated convection over
the western half of the forecast area at this time, 00 UTC storm
parameters indicate the the stronger thunderstorms still have an
environment to help the stronger storms produce strong wind
gust. CAM models the convection not moving off the coast after
midnight.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front well to the west and associated with a decent mid
level trough will move across the area tonight. Still some
convection expected with the feature but with relatively dry
moisture profiles it will take some time...in and around 22 UTC.
SPC still has most of the area in a slight risk with the
primary threat strong wind gusts. Some showers are possible
Monday afternoon with a secondary feature in the mean flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Atypically deep mid/upper trough for mid August will persist
across the eastern U.S. Monday night through Tuesday night.
Time-height cross sections suggest ample H7-H85 moisture will be
available Monday night as another impulse arrives from the
backside of the trough. As a result, have included slight
chance-chance PoPs most locations during that time. A drier
column is expected to be in place during Tuesday along with the
cold front pushing farther southeast and south of the forecast
area. High temperatures during Tuesday will be a few degrees
cooler than normal, and several degrees cooler compared to
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The mid/upper low across New England by mid-week will lift
toward the northeast through Friday. The mid/upper trough will
become less amplified across the eastern U.S. during this time with
a H5 weakness lingering across the Carolinas. At the surface,
another ridge will build across the Carolinas allowing for a
period of NE-Ely flow and continued cooler weather. Increasing
confidence of a trough developing offshore which would shift
toward the coast by around Friday. Some low-level moisture may
advect into the area, but for now will limit slight chance to
low chance PoPs along the coastal areas. Although the coastal
trough will likely become ill-defined during this weekend, feel
that the best rainfall chances will remain along the coast,
mostly due to a more active sea-breeze boundary and a bump in
instability. The typical cool spots will likely drop into the
upper 50s late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. High
temperatures will slowly recover by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Convection is occurring near KFLO and to the west of the inland
TAF sites at this time. The latest convective allowing models
(CAM) are showing the convection moving into KLBT and KFLO
around 00 UTC and moving eastward to the coastal TAFs closer to
03 UTC and off the coast by 06 UTC. Expect IFR/LIFR visibilities
in the heavy rain from the thunderstorms. Wind gust could
approach 25 to 35 knots with an outside chance of 35 to 45 knots
with the strongest thunderstorms.

After 06 UTC expect VFR with possibility of MVFR between 09 and 12
UTC. Winds are expected to be mainly west after 12 UTC as a slow
moving cold front pushes off the coast.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR Monday afternoon through
Thursday, with potential for patchy fog/stratus Tuesday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...Southwest winds of 15-20 knots will persist
for a good part of the afternoon and evening leading to eventual
seas of 4-6 feet mostly confined to the outer waters. The small
craft advisory remains in effect with no changes. Winds will
take on a more westerly component Monday and decrease slightly
as will significant seas.

Monday night through Friday...Back-swell from Ernesto will
continue to slip into the backdrop Tuesday and Wednesday. A
cold front is expected to shift off the coast late Monday night,
then move farther offshore during Tuesday. The progression of
the front will lead to winds veering to a Nly direction early
Tuesday morning then light winds Tuesday afternoon. A stronger
ridge will build across the waters Wednesday into Thursday
resulting in a decent NE-Ely fetch, especially as a coastal
trough takes shape across the offshore waters. The trough is
currently shown to weaken as it nears the coast during Friday
with less of a pressure gradient so conditions should begin to
improve some by late in the week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: Swells from Ernesto will continue to
impact all beaches through this afternoon into Monday. These
swells will continue to create hazardous surf and strong rip
currents, especially for east and southeast facing beaches. The
threat looks to finally decrease by Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107-
     109.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RH
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...RH
MARINE...ILM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK

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