Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
353 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon into
this evening ahead of a cold front that will drop in from the
north. High pressure should bring dry weather Thursday with
pleasant temperatures. Rain chances will increase again this
weekend as a new storm system advances eastward. Drier and
warmer weather should develop next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper low will move through the area this afternoon and
evening, bringing scattered thunderstorms to the area as it
interacts with warm, moist air and a frontal boundary. Some of
these storms could produce large hail and wind gusts of 60 mph
or greater. The area is in a severe thunderstorm watch until 8
PM. Convection should come to an end this evening with dry
weather expected Thursday. Lows tonight will fall to the lower
60s with highs Thursday in the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An H5 ridge axis will move across the area Thursday night and
off the coast Friday morning. This change will allow the old
low off the Mid-Atlantic coast to shift farther offshore and
allow a dampening shortwave to move across the forecast area
during Friday afternoon/evening with some increases in rainfall
chances. Would trend with higher POPs by that time however
moisture is still somewhat limited Friday for this part of the
Carolinas, with better advection earlier on in the long term
period. Blend of MAV/MET looks reasonable for the highs/lows
during this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The mid/upper low will be across the MS Valley during Saturday
and will direct impulses from the Deep South into the Carolinas
along with an increase in PWATs (around 2 inches) during the
day. GFS ensemble precipitation also suggest categorical to
likely POPs will be needed. Sunday looks wet as well with the
upper trough across the Carolinas. Big questions remain for the
Monday-Tuesday with potential/positioning for a closed low
development farther east than currently shown. If the cut-off
occurs farther east then POPs will trend downward due to more
influence of nearby mid/upper ridge across the Carolinas. At
this time, favor the drier scenario Monday through Wednesday,
but will need to closely watch how this evolves. Otherwise,
highs will be at or above normal through Sunday, then below
normal Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered storms are expected this afternoon and early evening.
All terminals showing at least tempo tsra to account for this.
A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect, so gusts over 50 KT
and hail in excess of 1 inch is possible at area terminals.
Confidence in occurrence at individual sites is too low for
inclusion in terminals attm. If storms with this potential
threaten individual sites, amendments will be issued. After
showers and storms end, a period of IFR is possible around
daybreak at all terminals but strong May sun should quickly
raise conditions to VFR.

Extended Outlook...Periodic flight restrictions are possible
early Wed evening from thunderstorm activity. VFR conditions to
dominate Thu through Fri. The next system with potential flight
restrictions will affect the area this weekend.&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...Southwest winds to 10 to 15 KT are expected
tonight and will become N to NW by daybreak before becoming
light and variable by afternoon. Seas of 3 to 5 FT tonight will
subside to 2 to 4 FT Thursday.

Thursday night through Monday...A large area of low pressure
off the Mid-Atlantic coast will drift farther offshore Thursday
night into Friday. Approaching low pressure from the west will
allow winds to become southerly during Saturday with veering
Sunday as the low moves off the coast. Northerly winds are
expected Monday with the low possibly off the NC/SC coast. If
the low stays just offshore then the northerly winds will be
higher.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: Yesterday's strong onshore winds have abated,
however a 4 foot southerly swell every 8 seconds continues to crash
onshore. South-facing beaches on Brunswick County and extreme
northeasterly Horry County run orthogonal to this swell and will
have the largest potential of rip current activity through this
evening.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...31
MARINE...SRP/31
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
124 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

AMZ250-252-254-256-160900-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
124 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 245 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are activated this afternoon and evening.

NCZ106-108-SCZ056-160900-
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Georgetown-
124 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 245 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Risk of Rip Currents.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are activated this afternoon and evening.

NCZ110-SCZ054-160900-
Coastal Brunswick-Coastal Horry-
124 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 245 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are activated this afternoon and evening.

NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-059-
160900-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Inland New Hanover-
Inland Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-
Williamsburg-Inland Georgetown-Central Horry-Northern Horry-
124 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 245 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are activated this afternoon and evening.

29

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
620 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 N Lamar               34.19N  80.07W
05/15/2024                   Darlington         SC   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Amateur radio relayed report from Darlington Fire Dept
            of multiple trees down on Cottonflower Rd. Time
            estimated based on time of report and radar.

&&

Event Number ILM2400139

RJB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
625 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 W Lamar               34.17N  80.12W
05/15/2024                   Darlington         SC   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Amateur radio relayed report from Darlington Fire Dept
            of a tree down on Mill Branch Rd. Time estimated by time
            of report and radar.

&&

Event Number ILM2400140

RJB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
645 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

NCZ087-096-152315-
Robeson NC-Bladen NC-
645 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL ROBESON AND CENTRAL
BLADEN COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

At 645 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Smiths, or 8 miles east of Lumberton, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Elizabethtown, Smiths, Ruskin, Howellsville, Bladen Community
College, Butters, White Oak, Lagoon, White Lake, Dublin, Tar Heel,
and Bladen County Hospital.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
southeastern North Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 7839 3473 7839 3472 7838 3470 7837
      3469 7835 3468 7835 3467 7832 3465 7832
      3464 7831 3463 7832 3460 7830 3458 7827
      3456 7825 3456 7894 3474 7895 3478 7843
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 273DEG 33KT 3465 7887

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MBB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
650 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

NCZ087-SCZ017-023-024-032-152330-
Robeson NC-Marlboro SC-Florence SC-Dillon SC-Darlington SC-
650 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ROBESON...NORTHWESTERN
FLORENCE...DILLON...DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM
EDT...

At 649 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Dunbar, or 11 miles northwest of Dillon, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Florence, Bennettsville, Hartsville, Dillon, Darlington, Red Springs,
Pembroke, Maxton, Timmonsville, Mccoll, St. Pauls, Latta, Rowland,
Lamar, Quinby, Clio, Rex, Hamer, Brownsville, and Darlington Raceway.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 20 between mile markers 125 and 141.
 Interstate 95 in South Carolina near mile marker 146, and between
mile markers 148 and 198.
 Interstate 95 in North Carolina between mile markers 1 and 14, and
between mile markers 24 and 38.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Wilmington.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
southeastern North Carolina...and northeastern South Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3449 8005 3453 7983 3461 7978 3481 7993
      3481 7968 3463 7946 3477 7933 3484 7935
      3483 7919 3495 7905 3490 7894 3481 7889
      3439 7930 3404 7999 3415 8015 3423 8011
      3436 8018 3433 8024 3437 8029
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 234DEG 31KT 3451 7953

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MORGAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
654 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SCZ054-058-152330-
Coastal Horry SC-Central Horry SC-
654 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HORRY COUNTY
THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

At 653 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Forestbrook, or over Red Hill, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Myrtle Beach, Myrtle Beach Airport, Socastee, Red Hill, North Myrtle
Beach Airport, Horry Georgetown Technical College Conway Campus,
Hand, Nixonville, Barefoot Landing Area Of North Myrtle Beach,
Forestbrook, Coastal Carolina University, Briarcliffe Acres,
Lighthouse Care Center Of Conway, Conway Medical Center, and Grand
Strand Regional Medical Center.

This includes the following highways...
 SC Highway 31 between mile markers 5 and 19.
 SC Highway 22 between mile markers 22 and 26.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
northeastern South Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3380 7907 3390 7875 3380 7872 3374 7882
      3370 7888 3368 7889 3366 7904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 260DEG 21KT 3375 7897

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MORGAN