Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
404 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will move offshore later tonight. High
pressure will build in through early Friday followed by another
significant storm system for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Event is unfolding as expected. Massive negatively tilted trough
aloft continues to push through, aided by the upper low that is
slowly moving into the Great Lakes region. Cold front is now heading
into the Pee Dee region as of this typing (just after 3 PM EST).
Main QLCS to the west is also fast approaching, but has started to
break apart, which is quite common in events like these. This does
NOT change the threat though. Do not let down your guard.

Another relatively new development are the storms offshore that are
now coming onshore. They have found the significant shear and
helicity, and a gradient of SBCAPE is building in. These are where
the intense supercells are spawning, and this is where the main
focus will be over the next few hours at least. Coastal communities
especially DO NOT need to let their guard down. Make sure you can
receive these warnings. Find your safe space immediately when a
Tornado Warning is issued. Lowest interior room is best, such as a
downstairs bathroom or closet. Stay away from windows. Bring some
couch cushions with you to give you some extra protection. Wear
close toed shoes to protect your feet from debris.

Main QLCS should be pushing offshore by 9-10 PM this evening. Winds
will remain elevated overnight, and the Wind Advisory for inland
areas has been extended until 6 AM EST Wednesday morning. Lows
tonight in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Wednesday will gradually clear, but remain blustery all day. Back to
sunshine, highs in the low 50s, and gusts up to 30 mph, especially
in the earlier portion of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Generally expect a westerly flow at the mid levels through the
period until late when a trough drops into the mid Mississippi
Valley. This system appears somewhat similar to the current one
although the moisture fields are not as impressive. The wind
fields are quite impressive however and SPC has the area
mentioned in the extended outlook. Overall there was little
change to the pops for Friday into Saturday which range from
chance to categorical. Temperatures will be seasonal early on
warming up considerably ahead of the system Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Confidence is a bit lower than usual for the extended
period as there could be a broad baroclinic zone setting up just
offshore. The ECMWF however presents a more progressive system. Pops
remain in the forecast for early Monday through late Tuesday but
will probably need to be fine tuned in time. Temperatures are
seasonable early on but may take a dive in the wake of the system.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mostly MVFR ceilings and stout ESE winds to open the 18Z TAF
period. Consistent winds at 25-30 kts with gusts up to 45-49 kts
have been recorded across the board, and gusts up to 60 kts are
possible at times, particularly with strong storms. LLWS is the
strongest it has been at quite some time, to the tune of
020/18065KT or there about. MVFR to IFR ceilings continue
through much of this evening as the squall line moves through.
Flight categories very gradually improve during the late evening
and overnight hours in a west-to-east fashion. VFR takes over
through the rest of the period. Wind shear will continue, but at
slower speeds.

Extended Outlook...VFR through the remainder of the workweek.
The next strong low pressure system will affect the region late
Friday night through Saturday with flight restrictions
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...
Storm Warning conditions to persist until the
line of storms moves well offshore of the coastal waters tonight.
Storm conditions will drop back to Gale conditions for the remainder
of the overnight. Short period seas at 10-16ft ongoing through
tonight, with a few 18-20ft waves out there 20nm from shore. Gale-
force winds early Wednesday will be quickly weakening during the
day, with winds dropping below 25 kt before sundown. Seas in turn
will also be improving throughout the day, starting at 7-12 ft
Wednesday morning and lowering to 5-7 ft by evening hours, with
dominant period of 10 sec from the south.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...
The current small craft advisory should be all but gone at
the beginning of the period (Wednesday evening) with a westerly flow
of 15-20 knots in place. Speeds decrease further into Thursday
basically going light and variable. By Friday and into the weekend
yet another dynamic system affects the area with headlines almost a
given. Significant seas will drop to 2-3 feet by later Thursday into
early Friday ramping up quickly with the next storm system for the
weekend.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for SCZ017-023-024-032-
     033-039-055-058-059.
     High Wind Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for SCZ054-056.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for SCZ054-056.
NC...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NCZ087-096-099-105-
     107-109.
     High Wind Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for NCZ106-108-
     110.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for NCZ107.
MARINE...Storm Warning until midnight EST tonight for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ILM/DCH
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...SHK/IGB

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
551 PM EST Tue Jan 09 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Red Springs             34.81N  79.18W
01/09/2024                   Robeson            NC   Emergency Mngr

            Numerous trees and power lines down in the Red Springs
            area.

&&

Event Number ILM2400012

ABW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
610 PM EST Tue Jan 09 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NNW Mullins           34.23N  79.26W
01/09/2024                   Marion             SC   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down on car near SC-41 and Zion Rd.

&&

Event Number ILM2400013

ABW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
611 PM EST Tue Jan 09 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ENE Marion            34.18N  79.38W
01/09/2024                   Marion             SC   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down on house along NC-41 near intersection with
            Walnut St.

&&

Event Number ILM2400014

ABW

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