River Flood Warning 47, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
941 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The center of now Hurricane Helene passes west of the area
today, with a threat for moderate to heavy rain, gusty winds,
and isolated tornadoes over the local area. Cool and dry high
pressure returns this weekend into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Active tornado warnings in portions of across the forecast area.
Will make a few modifications for the area behind the band of
convection that is swinging across the forecast area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Helene is currently over southern GA and continues to race off
to the north. As the storm approaches the southern Appalachians,
a feeder band of convection will develop along the Gulf Stream
and gradually mature in a increasingly unstable environment. Dry
air advection aloft, currently being wrapped into the southern
edge of the system over the FL panhandle, will lead to better
lapse rates aloft and deeper convection along the established
band. This period between 10Z and 17Z will see the greatest
threat of tornadoes.

Storm structure over portions of coastal SC and coastal GA have
been very impressive overnight, although isolated after
midnight. HREF ensembles continue to indicate that the
environment will continue to be conducive for tornadic
development as low level wind fields strengthen over coastal
NC/SC. Ensemble updraft helicity tracks show the best potential
will peak across the Cape Fear region with the final band of
convection by mid and late morning. This coincides with
increased convective potential as flow becomes more elongated
along the Gulf Stream and peeks of sunshine assist with further
destabilization.

Dry air will quickly engulf the area after noon from south to
north with clearing skies. Boundary layer mixing and strong
wind fields in the low levels will promote gusts up to 45 mph
this afternoon for both inland and coastal areas. The best
chance of this occurring will be late morning to early afternoon
across the Pee Dee region and early to mid afternoon in
southeastern NC.

Winds quickly abate during the late afternoon and early evening
with a decoupling boundary layer. Expect partly cloudy
(possibility of a few mid level clouds) to mostly clear skies
and dry conditions overnight. Mid 60s expected inland and lower
70s likely along the Grand Strand and southeastern NC as light
onshore flow continues.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Expect a return to dry weather Saturday as the remnants of
Helene weaken and pass off to the NW. Despite an upr-level
closed low being located west of the area, maintaining a rain-
free forecast as an expansive dry slow is wrapped around the SE
side of the low. This also allows for a sunny sky, with temps
reaching the mid 80s. Low temps Saturday night in the mid 60s
to lwr 70s under a slight increase in cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fairly quiet weather for the long term period. Main synoptic
item of note is the aforementioned closed low finally opening up
to a trough and shifting east through the local area then
offshore. Slightly increasing deep-layer moisture will allow for
isolated showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday, but
in general rain chances remain rather low. Dry weather mid to
late week as weak sfc high pressure builds in from the west.
Temps close to climatological norms this period with highs in
the low/mid 80s and lows in the 60s to lwr 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Band of convection pivoting across the area this morning will
become oriented south to north over the next couple of hours.
Heavy rain and strong winds are likely with this convection and
some severe weather may also be observed at the terminals. LLWS
also included, primarily for the convective band.

Deeper mixing will produce wind gusts up to 45 knots across the
area as the strong wind fields remain late this morning and
through the afternoon. Gradual improvement is expected after the
line of convection pushes north of the region. Winds drop to
around 10 knots this evening as mixing ceases. VFR and drying
overnight.

Extended Outlook... VFR should return through the weekend under
high pressure.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Hazardous marine conditions will continue
today as strong winds, waterspouts, and high seas persist.
Waterspouts associated with a band of convection will move south
to north across the area beginning around sunrise and continue
through the early afternoon. Convection should come to an end
thereafter with drier air moving into the area. Gusts will
gradually improve overnight with elevated seas will slowly
improve as well. Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely
continue through Saturday morning and an advisory will replace
the Tropical Storm Warning in SC waters.

Saturday through Tuesday...Improving marine conditions through
the day Saturday as the remnants of Helene weaken and push off
to the NW. Maintained the SCA until noon Saturday as seas will
take some time to drop below 6 ft. Thereafter through next week,
expect mainly benign marine conditions with sustained winds no
higher than 10-15 kt and seas 2-4 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding remains a threat this afternoon as
onshore winds continue. Flooding along the Lower Cape Fear River
will impact both sides of the river during the afternoon high
tides today. Normal water levels should return this weekend.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ106-108-
     110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT
     this evening for NCZ107.
SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-
     058-059.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
     High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for AMZ250-252.
     Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ254-256.
&&

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RH
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...21
MARINE...MAS/21
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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