Wind Advisory 19, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
152 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record high temperatures this afternoon

- Very high fire danger this afternoon, Monday, and Tuesday

- Additional storms possible Thursday afternoon and evening across
  mainly southeast KS

- More-widespread rainfall possible towards the middle of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

As of 2 PM, a midlevel, a shortwave trough was ejecting into the
central Plains with an attendant surface trough extending from
southeast CO through south-central SD. Ahead of the surface trough
axis, an abnormally warm air mass has emerged across the
central Plains with temperatures currently in the upper 80s to
low 90s. Wichita Eisenhower has already broken the record high
temperature for today with 90 degrees ongoing. Anticipate
temperatures rising another degree or 2 through peak heating.
Please refer to the climate section for additional details
regarding record high temperatures. As the shortwave trough
ejects into central and eastern KS late this afternoon and
evening, showers and storms are likely to develop after 6 PM
along the front from roughly Emporia to Hillsboro to Kingman.
MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg with modest veering through 3 km may
support a stronger storm or 2 with hail up quarter size and wind
gusts near 60 mph. The frontal forcing combined with a
sufficient cold pool should allow convection to propagate
southeastward through 10 PM or so. Beyond 10 PM, the combination
of frontal forcing and cold pool generation may become
insufficient for storm maintenance. As such, confidence for
storms after 10 PM greatly diminishes.

Longwave, midlevel ridging will build across the western half of the
CONUS for the tail-end of the week into the weekend. As such, mostly
dry conditions are expected throughout the weekend. An area of
surface high pressure will move overhead by Saturday with light
winds and temperatures in the 60s. The area of high pressure will
slide eastward into Sunday, allowing southerly low-level flow to
return with temperatures nosing into the 70s by Sunday afternoon.

A stronger midlevel trough is forecast to emerge across the
southwest US towards the early portion of next week. This is likely
to result in the development of a strong surface trough axis with
gradient winds in excess of 40 mph possible Monday and Tuesday.
Shower and storm chances look to increase towards the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Stout/gusty south-southwest winds will persist through the
afternoon ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the
northwest. This cold front will sweep southeast across the
region this evening and tonight, switching winds to
northwesterly and gusty.

Additionally, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
along and just ahead of this strong cold front this evening and
overnight, possibly impacting the TAF sites ICT and CNU.
Included PROB30 groups to account for these thunderstorm
chances. The strongest activity will be capable of dime size
hail, 50 mph wind gusts, and locally heavy downpours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Very high fire danger will continue this afternoon for areas
generally southeast of a line from Salina to Lyons. Southerly winds
up to 40 mph with humidity values in the 30-40 percent are forecast.
A cold front will slide through the area this afternoon into
tonight shifting winds to the northwest and north.

Very high to extreme fire danger is possible Monday and Tuesday
across the entire forecast area. Southerly winds in excess of 40 mph
with humidity values in the 20-30 percent range are forecast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024

Record Temperature Information for October 24th

Site      Record (Year)      Forecast

Wichita     89 (1939)           92

Salina      92 (1939)           86

Chanute     92 (1927)           92

Russell     86 (2014)           83

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...BRF
CLIMATE...BRF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1154 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-251700-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1154 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong southwest winds and warm temperatures will support very high
grassfire danger today across much of the area, although it will be
highest over mainly south-central and southeast Kansas. Outdoor
burning is not recommended this afternoon or early evening.

Scattered storms are expected this evening for locations generally
along and southeast of a line extending from Hillsboro to Burrton to
Kingman. The stronger storms will be capable of quarter size hail
and 60 mph winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Very high grassland fire danger will return for Monday and Tuesday
due to gusty south winds and warm temperatures.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict