Wind Advisory 14, NWS Wichita, KS

Allen County, KS, Barton County, KS, Butler County, KS, Chase County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Elk County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Labette County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Marion County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Reno County, KS, Rice County, KS, Russell County, KS, Saline County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS

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WWUS73 KICT 262358
NPWICT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wichita KS
658 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-270100-
/O.EXP.KICT.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-240427T0000Z/
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-
Chase-Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-
Harper-Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-
Labette-
Including the cities of Neodesha, Cottonwood Falls, Wichita,
Salina, Rose Hill, Independence, Derby, Great Bend, Hillsboro,
Anthony, Arkansas City, Sterling, Wilson, Attica, Andover,
Howard, Grenola, Peabody, Chanute, Moline, Lincoln, Bel Aire,
Fredonia, Kingman, Sylvan Grove, McPherson, Strong City, Park
City, Russell, Wellington, Iola, Hutchinson, Valley Center,
Eureka, Parsons, Ellsworth, Longton, Newton, Augusta, Lyons, El
Dorado, Yates Center, Cedar Vale, Coffeyville, Harper, Madison,
Sedan, Haysville, Humboldt, Winfield, and Marion
658 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

Winds have dropped below advisory criteria. As such, the advisory 
will be allowed to expire.  Winds are still expected to be gusty 
with gusts up to 30 mph at times.

$$

Metzger

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
636 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Showers and storms expected this morning, severe weather not
  expected

* Storms possible across the Flint Hills this afternoon, possibly
  severe

* Severe storms, possibly significant, likely midday Saturday
  into Saturday night

* Active weather pattern through much of next week; multiple
  chances for rainfall

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

As of 3 AM Friday morning, a longwave, midlevel trough was
positioned across western CONUS. The first in a series of shortwave
tough axis' was progressing through the central and southern High
Plains. A well-defined surface warm front extends from near Tulsa,
OK to just south of Ponca City, OK to just south of Pratt, KS and
northwestward from there to the surface low in east-central CO.
Persistent, strong low-level WAA has kept overcast conditions with
occasional drizzle north of the warm front. As the midlevel
shortwave trough ejects northeastward, the warm front will retreat
northward. In conjunction with the northward retreating warm front,
the dryline, currently just east of the CO stateline, will advance
eastward through the remainder of the night into this afternoon.
As the dryline progresses into central KS after 4 AM, better
midlevel ascent, from the right entrance region of the 500 mb
jet, will result in more-widespread thunderstorm development.
It will be a close-call whether storm inflow can originate
within the boundary layer. Point-and-click RAP soundings suggest
the most likely scenario is storms will remain just elevated,
constraining any potential severe weather hazards to large hail
up to quarter size and damaging winds up to 60 mph. Should an
updraft ingest surface- based-parcels with subsequent supercell
structures, a tornado would become increasingly possible. These
trends will need to be monitored closely through sunrise.

Transitioning into the afternoon hours today, the aforementioned
dryline will continue its march eastward, taking position across
the Flint Hills by mid-afternoon. The environment immediately
ahead of the dryline will be comprised of 1500-2500 MLCAPE with
50-60 kts of effective shear. Hodographs structures ahead of the
dryline have sufficient veering within the lowest 2 km or so
but become unidirectional, if not subtle backing, from 2-6 km.
While, a dominate right-moving supercell is possible, the subtle
backing above 2 km may lead to storm splits. All of that to
say, large hail up to baseball size and a tornado or two are
possible with the strongest storms. Again, this threat extends
east of a line from Emporia to Eureka to Sedan. Any storm will
rapidly move northeast and clear the area by 7 PM.

Behind the previously mentioned dryline, low-level moisture is
greatly scoured with surface dew points falling into the 30s.
As the evening/night progresses the near-surface moisture will
rapidly retreat westward with dew points returning into the low
to mid 60s. The deep, low-level moisture will remain across
central TX through midnight tonight/Saturday morning. This
deeper moisture will begin its trek northward as a surface low
deepens across southeast CO. Latest short range deterministic
and ensemble guidance suggests showers/storms will develop along
the nose of this moisture plume. These will rapidly spread
north and northeast from north TX/southwest OK. The evolution
and scope of these showers/storms will play a pivotal role in
afternoon storms with a couple of scenarios that may play out.

SCENARIO 1: These showers and storms develop across north
TX/southwest OK and gradually move north through the morning/early
afternoon. As the move northward, they will move in an increasingly
buoyant environment with upwards of 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Long,
veering hodographs would support a transition to a cluster of
thunderstorms, some with supercell structures. Any sustained
supercell structure would have the potential to produce very large
hail (baseball size or larger) and tornadoes. Then eyes would turn
westward to the dryline for any boundary layer recovery that may
occur for later in the afternoon. Any dryline storms that develop
along the dryline from roughly Hays to Greensburg would have the
potential for all hazards including large hail up to baseball size
and tornadoes.

SCENARIO 2: These showers/storms develop across north TX/southwest
OK. They EXPAND in coverage as they progress northeastward and
drastically disrupt the downstream environment and reducing the
likelihood for these to become surface based. This would reduce
the potential for severe storms. Like in scenario 1, eyes would
turn westward to the dryline for any boundary layer recovery
that may occur for later in the afternoon. Again, any storm that
develops along the dryline from roughly Hays to Greensburg
would have the potential for all hazards including large hail up
to baseball size and tornadoes.

The million dollar question is which scenario is more likely. At
this point, it seems a near guarantee that showers/storms
develop across north TX/southwest OK and gradually move
northeastward. An overall lack of strong large scale forcing for
ascent, shouldn't foster an expansive zone of showers/storms.
Therefore, I don't expect a significant modification of the
downstream environment into portions of central, south-central,
and southeast KS. As such, scenario 1 seems the most plausible
with open warm sector severe storms during the afternoon. Then a
second round of severe storms developing along the dryline as
the main midlevel shortwave ejects into the Plains towards 7pm.

Transitioning into Saturday night/Sunday morning, large scale ascent
will increase leading to additional thunderstorm development across
central/south-central KS. Thunderstorm hazards should transition to
primarily a damaging wind threat. A few lapse rate driven
showers/storms are possible into Sunday as the midlevel low pivots
across NE/SD. The midlevel pattern looks to remain active into next
week with zonal flow persisting. Several shortwave trough axis' are
progged to eject across the Plains with multiple rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Lingering IFR/MVFR cigs will linger this morning with VFR
conditions expected for most areas by midday as a warm front
lifts north of the area. Strong and gusty southwest winds will
develop west of the turnpike behind the passage of a dry-line
front this afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered strong to
severe convection is possible across southeast Kansas today.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Today: Very high grassland fire danger is expected this afternoon
as dry air and windy conditions affect portions of central Kansas.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...BMB/JC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
843 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-271345-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
843 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening, primarily along and east of a line from Emporia to Eureka
to Sedan. If storms are able to form, they will be capable of
baseball size hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two cannot be
ruled out as well.

Strong southwest winds will drive very high grassfire danger today
over central and north-central Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Severe storms are possible on Saturday. There is also the potential
for localized flooding where training thunderstorms occur.

Thunderstorm chances may linger across far southeast Kansas on
Sunday. Additional storm chances are possible Tuesday and
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible along and east of the Flint Hills
this afternoon and evening, and areawide Saturday afternoon and
night.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
456 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KSZ069-261030-
Butler KS-
456 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BUTLER COUNTY THROUGH 530 AM
CDT...

At 456 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Towanda to near Douglass. Movement was
northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
El Dorado, Augusta, Douglass, Towanda, Leon, Rosalia, Cassoday, El
Dorado Airport, El Dorado Lake, and El Dorado State Park.

This includes Interstate 35 between Mile Markers 64 and 96.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3748 9701 3778 9701 3809 9684 3809 9652
      3772 9653 3748 9682
TIME...MOT...LOC 0956Z 215DEG 44KT 3779 9693 3751 9694

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DARMOFAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
716 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KSZ071-072-095-096-100-261245-
Wilson KS-Woodson KS-Labette KS-Neosho KS-Allen KS-
716 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WILSON...NORTHERN
LABETTE...NEOSHO...EASTERN WOODSON AND ALLEN COUNTIES THROUGH 745 AM
CDT...

At 715 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Yates Center to Galesburg.
Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Parsons, Chanute, Iola, Humboldt, Erie, St. Paul, La Harpe, Gas,
Moran, Thayer, Walnut, Neosho Falls, Galesburg, Savonburg, Elsmore,
Stark, Earlton, Mildred, Bassett, and Lake Parsons.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3729 9543 3786 9573 3804 9562 3804 9508
      3772 9509 3728 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1215Z 236DEG 50KT 3783 9563 3746 9536

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KLEINSASSER