Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
557 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms, some severe, expected this afternoon

- Unseasonably warm Tuesday and Thursday

- A few showers/storms possible Thursday evening/night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

As of 130 PM, widespread showers and thunderstorms were ongoing
across portions of central KS. These are largely driven by midlevel
WAA and have remained elevated to this point. Anticipate this
elevated nature to continue with this round of convection as low-
level buoyancy is quite limited with dew points in the mid to upper
40s. More-robust convection is expected along a dryline/cold front
later this afternoon. At this hour, that frontal zone was positioned
just west of Highway 283 (roughly Dodge City to Hill City).
Instability along the boundary is forecast to increase in the 1000-
1500 J/kg range with 40-50 kt of effective shear. This overlap
should promote supercell development in the 3-4 pm timeframe from
Pratt to Great Bend. The chief concern with the strongest storms
will be hail up to ping pong ball size and wind gusts near 60 mph.
Modest low-level veering and acceleration may support a brief
tornado but meager boundary-layer moisture should dampen that
potential. As the cold front sweeps across the area this evening
into the early overnight, the potential for convection will come to
an end from west to east.

Transitioning into Tuesday and Wednesday, downslope low-level flow
will promote a mild afternoon Tuesday afternoon with temperatures in
the 80s areawide. A secondary midlevel trough will slide across the
northern Plains late Tuesday evening, shunting the frontal zone well-
south of the forecast area with surface high pressure building in.
Midlevel, shortwave ridging will overspread the area Wednesday into
Thursday, allowing temperatures to return to the 80s and possibly
the low 90s along the KS/OK stateline Thursday. This warm-up will be
brief as a cold front will slide through the area late Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening as a shortwave trough slides across
the central Plains. While rain chances are possible with the frontal
passage, the short duration for moisture return will greatly limit
the magnitude of rain potential.

Longwave, midlevel ridging will build across the western half of the
CONUS for the tail-end of the week into the weekend. As such, mostly
dry conditions are expected throughout the weekend. An area of
surface high pressure will move overhead by Saturday with light
winds and temperatures in the 60s. The area of high pressure will
slide eastward into Sunday, allowing southerly low-level flow to
return with temperatures nosing into the 70s by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 557 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

Scattered/marginally strong convection will accompany the
Pacific cold front/dryline this evening across central Kansas
with an area of elevated showers/storms out ahead across the
Flint Hills. The precipitation will shift northeast rather
quickly toward midnight with a drier westerly component flow
developing later tonight and Tuesday behind the front with
generally clear skies in its wake. A period of low level wind
shear is expected just ahead of the front early tonight.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

Very high fire danger is expected Thursday afternoon and
evening. Gusty south winds up to 30 mph will overlap with cured
grasslands and humidity in the 25-35 percent. A cold front will
sweep across the area Thursday afternoon and evening, shifting
winds to the northwest and north at 10-25 mph.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...JWK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
731 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-230045-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
731 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few thunderstorms will remain possible until around midnight. A
locally strong storm with gusty winds and small hail will be
possible west of the Kansas turnpike.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Very high fire danger is possible Thursday afternoon and evening
across much of the area.

Thunderstorms are possible Thursday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
235 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

KSZ082-212000-
Kingman KS-
235 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL KINGMAN COUNTY THROUGH
300 PM CDT...

At 235 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northeast of Nashville, or 13 miles east of Isabel, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kingman, Nashville, Willowdale, Zenda, Spivey, Cleveland, and Kingman
Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 9846 3743 9847 3749 9846 3774 9818
      3773 9816 3753 9790 3738 9827
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 229DEG 35KT 3748 9831

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MCGUIRE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
538 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

KSZ033-048-212315-
Ellsworth KS-Lincoln KS-
538 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHWESTERN
ELLSWORTH COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CDT...

At 537 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Wilson, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ellsworth, Lincoln, Beverly, Ellsworth Airport, and Westfall.

This includes Interstate 70 between Mile Markers 210 and 227.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3915 9820 3898 9793 3865 9835 3872 9849
      3875 9848
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 217DEG 48KT 3878 9835

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

CUELLAR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
704 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

KSZ048-050-051-220030-
Ellsworth KS-Rice KS-McPherson KS-
704 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MCPHERSON...
NORTHEASTERN RICE AND SOUTHEASTERN ELLSWORTH COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM
CDT...

At 704 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Little River, or 6 miles east of Lyons, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marquette, Little River, Windom, and Kanopolis Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 9807 3834 9819 3861 9800 3861 9776
      3852 9763
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 220DEG 43KT 3834 9808

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

CUELLAR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
744 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

KSZ049-051-220115-
McPherson KS-Saline KS-
744 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MCPHERSON AND SALINE
COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

At 744 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from Brookville to 5 miles
northwest of Galva. Movement was northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Salina, Mcpherson, Lindsborg, Marquette, Assaria, Gypsum, Brookville,
Smolan, New Cambria, Falun, Glendale, Salina Airport, Roxbury,
Bridgeport, and Kipp.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 135 between Mile Markers 59 and 95.
 Interstate 70 between Mile Markers 236 and 266.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Wichita.

&&

LAT...LON 3896 9737 3859 9737 3833 9761 3862 9793
      3888 9793 3896 9785
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 221DEG 50KT 3876 9788 3846 9759

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

CUELLAR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
821 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

KSZ049>051-067-220200-
Reno KS-Rice KS-McPherson KS-Saline KS-
821 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MCPHERSON...NORTHEASTERN RENO...
EASTERN RICE AND SALINE COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM CDT...

At 820 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Niles to 5 miles east
of Nickerson. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Salina, Hutchinson, Mcpherson, Lindsborg, South Hutchinson, Inman,
Buhler, Nickerson, Marquette, Little River, Assaria, Gypsum, Smolan,
Windom, New Cambria, Falun, Willowbrook, Salina Airport, Mcpherson
Airport, and Hutchinson Airport.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 135 between Mile Markers 57 and 95.
 Interstate 70 between Mile Markers 246 and 266.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Wichita.

&&

LAT...LON 3896 9738 3893 9737 3893 9738 3892 9738
      3891 9737 3870 9737 3801 9780 3809 9817
      3852 9794 3852 9792 3854 9793 3896 9770
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 215DEG 35KT 3895 9743 3813 9799

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

CUELLAR