Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
648 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather this afternoon through the evening.

- A long stretch of fairly quiet weather expected later tonight
  through at least early weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Widespread clouds has so far hampered destabilization across the
eastern half of KS. However, the airmass should quickly destabilize
by mid to late afternoon from the west, as rich boundary layer
moisture advects northward, with some breaks in low overcast likely
generally west of the Flint Hills. Given steep mid-level lapse rates
and mid-level cooling spreading eastward, this will all yield strong
buoyancy moving in by mid-late afternoon (likely upwards of 2500-
3000 J/kg). The rich low-level moisture will also yield high amounts
of buoyancy in the lower levels, an essential ingredient for
tornadoes. Deep layer effective shear will also continue to
increase, as a strong mid-upper level speed max approaches from the
southwest. Low-level shear is also impressive, with 0-1km SRH
increasing to 300-400 m2/s2 by late afternoon-early evening as the
low-level jet increases. This thermodynamic and kinematic
environment will favor supercells and embedded supercell structures
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

Current expectations are for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to
develop/continue moving east-northeast up and down the dryline from
western KS, south through western OK, as large-scale ascent
continues to overspread the dryline. Given the stronger forcing and
deep layer shear orientation more parallel to the dryline, activity
should tend to form more of a line/broken line of storms with
northward extent, likely limiting higher-end severe threat from
roughly central KS on north. However, given the above mentioned
environment, embedded supercell structures are likely within the
line/broken line, capable of all severe hazards, including a few
tornadoes.

Further south across mainly southern KS and points southward through
Oklahoma, the environment looks to become increasingly volatile for a
more discrete supercell mode with southward extent, given somewhat
weaker large-scale forcing, and deep layer shear orientation more
perpendicular to the dryline. This region is also closer to the
emerging intense mid-upper jet streak. It is in this region where
ingredients should come together for some intense supercells,
capable of very large hail and damaging winds, along with the threat
for a handful of strong & long-track tornadoes. This higher-end
threat is most probable between roughly 4-10pm, and again from
southern KS, south through Oklahoma.

As we head into the evening hours, most CAM solutions congeal much
of this activity into a line/broken line of intense thunderstorms
from OK north-northeast through eastern KS. While the overall threat
for higher-end severe weather should tend to wane with this
activity, pockets of intense supercell structures and meso vortices
are likely given the continued strong low-level shear and low-level
buoyancy. This activity will pose a continued tornado threat, along
with intense pockets of damaging winds and large hail.

Please heed all warnings and take shelter when appropriate. Any
tornadoes that develop this afternoon and evening will likely be
difficult to see given low cloud bases, along with the potential for
rain-wrapped circulations. Do not wait until you can see the
tornado. If a tornado warning is issued for your location, please
take shelter.

Once tonight's thunderstorm activity clears to the east, the
synoptic pattern favors relatively quiet weather through at least
early in the weekend. Chances for showers/thunderstorms may increase
Sunday-Sunday night into next week, but it appears the potential for
organized severe weather is low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Showers and thunderstorms, some of them severe will be possible
for the first six hours of the TAF. The thunderstorm threat for
KGBD and KRSL will end in the next couple of hours with KHUT,
KSLN and KICT will likely end between 02Z and 05Z this evening.
KCNU will likely continue with the thunderstorm threat until 08Z
to 09Z tonight. Chances for any one terminal is rather low which
makes timing difficult, especially for KICT and KCNU. KSLN and
KHUT will like clear in the next few hours. After 10Z tomorrow,
VFR conditions are expected to return and stay for the remainder
of the TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ELM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
743 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-080045-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
743 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The thunderstorm risk is beginning to diminish from west to east.
Currently areas along I-135 and east are still at risk for
thunderstorm activity. Some of the thunderstorms will be severe,
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The greatest
threat for higher-end severe weather will be over Southeast Kansas
and south through Oklahoma until about 11PM. Large hail up to golf
balls and 80 mph remain possible. Tornadoes are also possible with
the best chance for tornadic activity south and southeast Kansas,
generally along and east of the Flint Hills tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a slight chance for a few thunderstorms over far southeast
Kansas Wednesday, but the severe weather threat should remain just
east and southeast of the region.

There is a chance for hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms across
the region from Sunday night into next week, but the overall
potential for severe weather looks low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
739 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KSZ092-093-070115-
Cowley KS-Sumner KS-
739 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN COWLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN SUMNER COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

At 739 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
South Haven, or 15 miles east of Caldwell, moving northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Arkansas City, Winfield, Wellington, Oxford, South Haven, Geuda
Springs, Hunnewell, and Strother Field Airport.

This includes Interstate 35 between Mile Markers 1 and 20.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9745 3729 9738 3733 9693 3700 9707
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 229DEG 27KT 3703 9734

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BUTLER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
746 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KSZ093-094-098-070115-
Cowley KS-Chautauqua KS-Elk KS-
746 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ELK...EASTERN
COWLEY AND WESTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

At 746 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Cedar Vale, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Howard, Cedar Vale, Moline, Dexter, Grenola, and Cambridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
and southeastern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9678 3748 9662 3748 9653 3754 9652
      3750 9620 3700 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 207DEG 40KT 3723 9653

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BUTLER