Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
319 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms likely through tonight, some of which will be
  severe. All severe hazards are possible.

- Slight risk of a few severe storms eastern KS Sunday PM.

- Off-and-on thunderstorm chances return Tuesday afternoon
  through Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Thunderstorm mode has ended up being rather messy so far given
meridional component to mid-upper flow, multiple storms on the
scope, and multiple storm mergers. This should tend to limit how
many storms are capable of "higher-end" severe weather. However,
strong low and deep layer shear coupled with moderate to strong
instability will continue to favor a severe weather threat,
especially over southeast Kansas were the airmass has been
relatively undisturbed (outside of dense anvil debris). In this
area, favorable low-level shear, low-level instability, and low
cloud bases will support tornadoes with any embedded supercell or
QLCS structures. Damaging winds are also possible. The large hail
threat (anything greater than golfballs or so) will likely be
confined to cells that remain more discrete.

Another area of concern is north-central Kansas, where a slowly
northward retreating boundary is situated. Any cells that can become
rooted along this boundary will ingest rich low-level shear
along/just north of the boundary, and be capable of all severe
hazards (including tornadoes).

Additional storms may develop this afternoon-evening up and down the
dryline across western portions of KS-OK, with this activity then
tracking rapidly northeast. There's some concern that current
widespread storm coverage and associated dense anvil cirrus east of
the dryline will limit instability and associated storm potential
along the dryline. However, if storms are able to form, CAPE/shear
combination will support all severe hazards with this activity,
especially if storms can remain more discrete.

A third round of storms may develop by later this evening over
western and central portions of KS-OK, ahead of approaching upper
forcing and mid-level cooling. The primary threat with this activity
would likely be 60+ mph winds (if storms are able to become severe)
given the stronger forcing and increasingly unfavorable hodographs.

Another threat we don't want to forget this afternoon through
tonight is heavy rainfall and localized flooding, especially from
roughly the KS Turnpike corridor on southeast, as numerous
thunderstorms continue to train northeast. Pockets of 1-3+ inches
are likely, and may fall in a short period. Consequently, areas of
street and low-land flooding are likely, along with modest to sharp
rises in area streams and rivers, again mainly along and southeast
of the KS Turnpike.

For Sunday, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will remain
possible over eastern KS, generally along and east of the Flint
Hills corridor, as the dryline continues to advance east. If a storm
or two is able to form (they may struggle due to decreasing
forcing), hail and wind would be the primary threats.

Taking a look ahead...an off-and-on active weather pattern
thunderstorm-wise looks to take shape once again Tuesday
afternoon/evening through Thursday night. Stay tuned, as we continue
to refine forecast details the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Plenty of concerns with the terminals as return flow ahead of a wavy
nearby frontal system and Rockies upper low were supplying
ammunition for the potential for severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and tonight. Non-convective low level wind shear along with
gusts to 35 mph away from thunderstorms are also possible
tonight along with poor flying conditions in convection. In
addition, winds of over 50 knots, large hail and tornadoes are
also possible.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for KSZ052-053-068>072-
083-091>096-098>100.

&&

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...MK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
323 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-280830-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
323 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly this afternoon and
evening. All hazards are possible, including large hail up to
baseball size, damaging wind gusts to 75 mph and tornadoes.
The severe risk will transition into mainly a heavy rain threat
later tonight across the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas where
lowland flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A slight risk for severe storms will continue for southeast Kansas
on Sunday with a continued risk for heavy rainfall and flooding.

There will be more chances for thunderstorms across much of the area
from late Tuesday through Thursday night. The risk for organized
severe storms appears low at this time for the mid-week periods.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this afternoon and evening.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
204 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0203 PM     Hail             1 S Leon                37.67N 96.78W
04/27/2024  M0.70 Inch       Butler             KS   Public

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
222 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KSZ032-272000-
Russell KS-
222 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN RUSSELL COUNTY THROUGH
300 PM CDT...

At 222 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 9 miles south of Luray, or 10 miles northeast of
Russell, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Russell, Lucas, Luray, Bunker Hill, Wilson Lake, and Russell Airport.

This includes Interstate 70 between Mile Markers 182 and 192.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9878 3913 9851 3895 9850 3880 9885
      3891 9898
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 212DEG 41KT 3898 9870

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MCGUIRE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
246 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0246 PM     Hail             Rosalia                 37.82N 96.62W
04/27/2024  E0.70 Inch       Butler             KS   Public

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
250 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KSZ033-272015-
Lincoln KS-
250 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY
THROUGH 315 PM CDT...

At 250 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hunter, or 18 miles northwest of Lincoln, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ash Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 9808 3902 9848 3922 9849
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 209DEG 21KT 3920 9842

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

METZGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
259 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KSZ032-272030-
Russell KS-
259 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN RUSSELL COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

At 259 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gorham, or 6 miles north of Walker, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gorham, Paradise, and Waldo.

This includes Interstate 70 between Mile Markers 175 and 181.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9904 3913 9872 3884 9894 3886 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 193DEG 27KT 3895 9903

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

METZGER

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
305 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     Hail             Arkansas City           37.07N 97.04W
04/27/2024  M1.00 Inch       Cowley             KS   Emergency Mngr

&&