Severe Thunderstorm Warning 319, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
324 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Few storms possible this evening with shower/storm chances
  ramping-up for Sat night through Sun.

- Hot temperatures again for Sat across south central and
  southeast KS with highs in the upper 90s to around 100.

- Much cooler temperatures to start the work week with highs
  both Mon and Tue in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Currently have an upper low spinning over Southern CA with some
additional shortwave energy digging across the Northern Rockies.
Meanwhile, upper ridging remains across the Southern Plains. At
the surface, return flow is starting back up with a warm front
lifting across southwest KS.

Area of showers and storms has been lifting northeast from
Eastern NM into southwest KS with this activity in an area of
850-700mb moisture advection ahead of the upper wave. This area
of precip is expected to continue lifting northeast late this
afternoon with a few additional storms possible to the east of
this cluster, along the warm front. Will hold onto some small
pops this evening as the mid level theta-e advection translates
northeast but feel the most widespread activity tonight will be
after 06z over northeast KS were the better low level jet
dynamics will be maximized.

Highs on Sat will once again be 15-20 degrees above normal
across most of south central and southeast KS with readings
topping out in the upper 90s to around 100.

By Sat afternoon, upper low will be tracking northeast across
the Desert Southwest and will be moving across the Four Corners
region by early Sat evening. As the same time, shortwave trough
will swing across south central Canada and will allow a cold
front to move across the Northern Plains. Cold front is expected
to stretch from southeast Nebraska into west-central KS by Sat
afternoon. While there maybe some sct shower/storm activity
across mainly central KS Sat morning, feel the more widespread
showers and storms will hold off until Sat evening, when the
better upper diffluence approaches the area. Also still going
with the thinking that the better heavy rain potential will be
tied to the 850mb front which will be over central KS Sat night.
In addition, PW values Sat evening look to be around 200% of
normal, which should lead to some efficient rain producers.
Scattered showers/storms will persist into Sun as the front
continues to slowly push southeast and by 00z Mon, mainly only
the Flint Hills into southeast KS will still be seeing precip.

The good news is that confidence remains high in below normal
temps for Mon with some highs not making it out of the 60s! We
will see a gradual warmup for Tue but highs will still be below
normal. By mid week, medium range models start to diverge in the
placement of a cutoff low, with the ECMWF keeping the low over
the Southern High Plains while the GFS keep this feature over
the Missouri Valley. So this leads to low confidence beyond the
Tue time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon across the
region. Meanwhile showers and storms are expected to develop
over southwest Kansas later this afternoon and some of this
activity could spread into central Kansas this evening.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
355 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-211500-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
355 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Chances for scattered thunderstorms will increase from the west
early this evening generally along and west of the Flint Hills.
Quarter size hail and 65 mph winds may accompany the strongest
activity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Heat indices around 100 degrees are possible Saturday afternoon
over far southern and southeast Kansas.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will increase late
Saturday, and persist through Sunday night. While widespread severe
weather is not expected, a handful of strong to marginally severe
storms are possible, along with locally heavy rainfall. The best
chance for heavy rain will be for locations along and especially
north of Highway 50.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

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