Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
532 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
* Severe storm chances through this evening across south central
  and southeast Kansas.

* Much cooler on Friday with rain possibly ending as light snow
  or flurries in central Kansas (little if any snow accums).

* Dry over the weekend and warming early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024

Main challenge into this evening is the position of the surface
warm front in vicinity of the KS/OK border area where heightened
window for surface based severe storms/supercells will be
possible. In that regard, the short term models have handled
this fairly well showing MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 j/kg in
presence of 45 to 50 kts of deep layer near time of peak
heating. So little change to expectations already advertised in
the hazardous weather messaging with largest hail and non-zero
tornado risk over far southern portions of the forecast area.
Otherwise, still expect scattered strong to marginally severe
elevated storms just north of the front across the rest of south
central and southeast Kansas, though better chances should
shift primarily east of the turnpike by mid-evening. We look to
keep a reservoir of weak elevated instability through early
Friday across mainly southeast Kansas for embedded thunder with
scattered rain showers/light rain/drizzle further west over the
rest of the area into central Kansas. It will become marginally
cold enough for some mixed snow/rain to light snow/flurries in
central Kansas before the precip ends by Friday afternoon.

Gradual drying in the wake of the upper trof portends to a dry
seasonably cool Saturday with general ridging aloft and milder
southerly low level return flow on Sunday. A weak shortwave
aloft will undercut the weak ridging across the Plains, moving
just south of the area Sunday night into Monday with little
fanfare for Kansas. Increasingly mild southerly low level flow
on Monday will send temperatures well above climo again with
many areas topping 70F. Confidence is somewhat lower in the
latter portion of the extended forecast next week with quite a
bit of variance among the medium range guidance. There is
general agreement on deeper upper troughing across the Southwest
conus by Thursday with southwest flow aloft downstream over
Kansas. A surface cold front looks to slide into the area by
then which would be the focus for precip chances.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1159 AM CST Thu Mar 7 2024

Areas of showers and thunderstorms will be possible for the ICT
and KCNU terminals for the first six to eight hours of the TAF
period. KCNU is likely to have more of this activity than ICT.
Thunderstorm residence time does not appear to be more than 20
minutes at a time but there could be multiple rounds of thunder
at KCNU tonight. By 12Z tomorrow. IFR and LIFR CIG can be
expected across the region for all terminals. Light rain will
also be possible as well. There is also a chance for some low
level ICG (010-050 AGL) after 12Z tomorrow morning. KICT, KHUT,
KSLN, KGBD and KRSL until about 20Z tomorrow. Otherwise, there
are no other aviation weather issues expected for this TAF
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024

Fire weather concerns will remain on the low side through the
weekend and will likely see prescribed burning across parts of
the area.

Warm, breezy, and dry conditions will return on Monday afternoon
and should result in very high grassland fire danger for
locations from the Flint Hills westward across south central and
central Kansas. Very high fire danger is possible on Tuesday
afternoon for portions of south central Kansas.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...ELM
FIRE WEATHER...KED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
247 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-082100-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
247 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Late This Afternoon through Tonight

Another round of thunderstorms is expected late this afternoon
through tonight across south central and southeast Kansas. Strong to
severe storms will be possible through this evening, capable of
large hail up to half-dollar size. Locally damaging winds to 65 mph
and a tornado are also a remote possibility.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Isolated thunderstorms may continue into Friday primarily across
southeast Kansas. They are not expected to be strong or severe.

Very high grassland fire danger is possible on Monday afternoon from
the Flint Hills westward across south central and central Kansas.
Very high fire danger is also possible for south central Kansas on
Tuesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible through early this evening for
portions of south central and southeast Kansas, mainly south of a
line from Wichita to Chanute.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
512 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024

KSZ072-072345-
Allen KS-
512 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ALLEN COUNTY THROUGH 545 PM
CST...

At 511 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gas, or over La Harpe, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Iola, Humboldt, La Harpe, Gas, Moran, Savonburg, Elsmore, Bassett,
and Iola Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CST for
southeastern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3782 9509 3773 9509 3773 9545 3799 9539
      3801 9508 3782 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 274DEG 29KT 3788 9534

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BUTLER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
540 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024

KSZ098-099-080015-
Montgomery KS-Chautauqua KS-
540 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CST...

At 539 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Peru, or 7 miles northwest of Caney, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Caney, Tyro, Peru, Havana, Bolton, Niotaze, and Independence Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CST for
southeastern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3719 9616 3721 9580 3700 9574 3700 9610
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 246DEG 14KT 3706 9606

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BUTLER

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