Severe Thunderstorm Warning 264, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
644 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous summer heat through Thursday with record
  temperatures possible

- 20-30% chances for showers and storms Wednesday afternoon-
  night in north central and portions of south central KS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

Challenge: Precipitation chances and coverage Tue and Wed

Changes:

1) Reduced coverage of precip chances this evening

2) Excessive Heat Watch became Excessive Heat Warning

There are ripples in the pattern with various shortwaves over the
CONUS. One shortwave helped drive showers and thunderstorms mainly
this morning for the eastern half of Kansas, and they continue to
linger over northeast Kansas and parts of Missouri early this
afternoon. Cloud cover cleared out with afternoon temperatures
ranging from the lower 80s in the far east to around 100 degrees in
central and southwest portions of the Sunflower State. Breezy
southerly winds from mixing maybe helped a tad in the overall feels
like factor with sustained speeds of 15 to 25 mph.

Another shortwave over the Front Range could lead to an area of
convective initiation in eastern Colorado/northwestern Kansas; this
activity may track east into north central Kansas later this
evening. Based on the current mesoanalysis, there is decent amount
of CIN/inhibition over western Kansas which may be hard to overcome.
While some CAMs show development at some point this afternoon, it
diminishes along an eastward track. The 15-20% precipitation chances
were refined to a smaller area. If a storm is able to hold together,
the main threat for the stronger storms remains to be 60 mph winds.

Summertime heat is the main concern for this forecast period with
temperatures and heat indices above the century mark and near 105-
115 respectively from Monday through Thursday. Record to near record
temperatures are forecast both in the daily high temperatures and
warm/high low temperatures. A breakdown can be found in the climate
section below. While there is some uncertainty in the extent of the
heat on Thursday specifically in north central Kansas with a front
dropping through the area, the key is the consecutive days of heat
indices near to above 105. Thus it was decided to replace the
Excessive Heat Watch with an Excessive Heat Warning from Monday
through Thursday. Additionally both other heat tools (WBGT and
HeatRisk) are indicating the potential to reach the highest category
on their scales for many locations more than once during this
stretch. If you plan on working outdoors this week, try to avoid
doing the most strenuous activity during the afternoon hours and
drink plenty of fluids before, during and after. There will be at
least some wind with speeds around 15 mph during the afternoon
hours each day.

A subtle wave is expected to move into the Plains late Tuesday-
Wednesday which may bring the next slight chance (15-20%) for
precipitation in north central Kansas. There is a better shortwave
that will track into the Plains from the Pacific Northwest later on
Wednesday. More forcing with this feature brings a bit higher
potential (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms with the better
chances over northern Kansas. It is likely that these chances will
be modified in the coming days. Otherwise a ridge builds in the
western CONUS for the latter part of the week into next weekend.
While next weekend is forecast to be a slight smidge cooler (a few
degrees), temperatures should still hover around the century mark.
Otherwise only minor tweaks were made to the ongoing forecast given
the latest trends.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Southerly wind
gusts near 30 kt will continue for the next hour or 2 with 20-25
kts possible thereafter. A few storms are expected in portions
of central/north central KS this evening and in the vicinity of
RSL. As such, have introduced VCTS at RSL. Confidence is much
too low for any mention elsewhere.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

Record to near record high temperatures are forecast from Monday
through Wednesday in north central Kansas. For Tuesday through
Thursday, record warm/high low temperatures are forecast for
Wichita. Below is a break down.

Record highs

Salina (7/29) - Forecast:106  Record: 108 in 2012

Salina (7/30) - Forecast:110  Record: 108 in 1917

Russell (7/30) - Forecast:108  Record: 107 in 1980

Russell (7/31) - Forecast:105  Record: 106 in 2005

Record warm/high lows

Wichita (7/30) - Forecast:79  Record: 78 in 2012

Wichita (7/31) - Forecast:80  Record: 79 in 1980

Wichita (8/1) - Forecast:79  Record: 80 in 2006

Salina (7/31) - Forecast:80 Record: 81 in 2006

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from noon Monday to 8 PM CDT Thursday
for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

DISCUSSION...VJP
AVIATION...BRB
CLIMATE...VJP

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