Severe Thunderstorm Warning 262, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
314 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cooler but still hot day today with afternoon/evening
  showers and thunderstorms

- Unseasonable cool temperatures expected for mid week and
  through the weekend. &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A frontal system will be slowly pushing through the CWA through the
day today and will making the temperature forecast rather tricky.
Convective debris from this morning storms will also make
temperatures tricky.  Most areas are expected to be hot again today
but not nearly as hot as yesterday.  Central Kansas will be as much
as 14-16 degrees cooler today.  Cloud cover and cooler air will
continue to push into the region through the afternoon.  The
presence of the front across the region will provide need forcing to
keep the chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.
Lapse rates and shear values remain decent and bring the potential
for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and into the
evening.  Hail up to half dollars and 70 mph winds will be possible
with the strongest storms.  The best chance for the severe
thunderstorm activity will be along Smokey and Red Hills of Central
and parts of South Central Kansas this afternoon and evening.

The potential for this activity will create a higher chance for
cloud cover in the afternoon.  This will keep the temperatures from
climbing into he 100s today as the front continues to sink south.
Areas of far Southeast Kansas are the most likely areas to see the
higher heat indices.  Could see a brief period of heat indices along
the Oklahoma State line in the 105-107 range during the afternoon
today.  This is high enough to warrant another heat advisory for
southern areas along the Oklahoma state line. By tonight, the
showers and thunderstorms will be pushing further south and will
over spread the region.  By Wednesday morning, the front will be
pushing to the south and the rain will be coming to an end by the
early afternoon.  Temperatures will take a tumble and are likely to
struggle to reach the mid and upper 80s in some areas.

The extended range indicates a series of Canadian high pressure
systems pushing into the region.  This will keep a persistent
northerly flow over the region.  This will keep the unseasonably
cool temperatures in the forecast through the coming weekend and the
chances for periodic rain as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A convectively induced mid-level disturbance approaching from
the High Plains along with a frontal zone draped across the
region will support shower/thunderstorm chances overnight into
early Tuesday, mainly over central Kansas (i.e. Russell, Great
Bend, Salina, and maybe Hutchinson). Thinking the main threats
with the strongest activity will be erratic gusty winds, brief
heavy rain, and perhaps very small hail. Additional thunderstorm
activity is possible late this afternoon and tonight over
central and southern portions of Kansas in vicinity of the
frontal boundary, and also as activity rolls east-southeast off
the High Plains.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

DISCUSSION...ELM
AVIATION...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
326 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-170830-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
326 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will be possible through out the day today. Some
storms could be locally strong during the day. This afternoon,
severe thunderstorms will become more likely, mainly along and west
of a line from Saline county to Sumner county. Hail up to half
dollars and winds up to 70 mph will be possible with the strongest
storms. Heavy rain is also possible which could create some
localized flooding.

Heat indices of 104-108 will be possible for a few hours this
afternoon along the Oklahoma State line. See the latest heat
advisory for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Chances for thunderstorms will linger into Wednesday before ending
by Wednesday evening. Slight chances for thunderstorms will return
by Friday night through Sunday, though the risk for severe weather
appears low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

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