Severe Thunderstorm Warning 256, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
533 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong/severe storms are possible over southeast Kansas
  late afternoon thru tonight.

- Heat will begin to build over the region tomorrow into early
  next week with the heat indices of 100 to 107 degrees area
  wide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Pronounced ridging is set up across the western CONUS while a
trough axis is currently located from the Great Lakes region to
the Mid Mississippi Valley. A secondary wave will be moving
through the base of the main trough this evening and tonight
which will help support isolated to scattered storm activity.

This evening, storms will be possible across portions of southeast
KS where increased PWs in an area of weak convergence will combine
with relatively weak CIN and 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and marginal shear
around 30kts. Storms may linger and further develop in the overnight
hours as warm moist advection takes over as a subtle southwesterly
LLJ develops overnight. Shear increases slightly overnight (1-6km 30-
40kts) while a gradient of 850-300mb MUCAPE falls to 800-1400 J/kg.
The stronger storm activity this evening through tonight will be
capable of hail up to quarter sized and 55 to 65 mph wind gusts,
along with pockets of heavy rain.

Still thinking tomorrow afternoon will remain dry across much if not
all of the CWA, though can't completely rule out a storm across far
southern KS near the OK border as a very subtle wave moves
through the otherwise building ridge over the area. A small
area of silent pops were added for now. Otherwise, the next
several days are going to turn hot as the western ridge expands
east and dominates the pattern thru the middle of next week.
Highs will approach the mid/upper 90s (SE KS) to the low 100s
tomorrow increasing to the upper 90s (SE KS) to the low and mid
100s by Sunday. Excessive heat will continue through Tuesday
with some relief coming in by next Wednesday. The greatest heat
indices of 100 to 106-107 are expected in the afternoon Sunday
through Tuesday. Overnight temperatures Sunday through Tuesday
will remain in the upper 70s, offering little relief from the
heat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 531 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Satellite and radar trends continued to be monitored for TSRA
development, mainly across the Flint Hills. As such, CNU stands
the greatest chance for being impacted through 06Z. Otherwise,
winds will remain near/below 10 kt through much of the period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...KMB
AVIATION...BRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
537 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-122245-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
537 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible this evening
and overnight mainly across the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas.
The strongest storms will be capable quarter size hail and 55 to 65
mph wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Heat indices during the afternoon hours will be near or above 100
from Friday through Tuesday. Heat indices across portions of
central Kansas may exceed 105 Sunday thru Tuesday.

Thunderstorm chances return to the region late Tuesday and
Wednesday across the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict