Severe Thunderstorm Warning 250, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
615 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few severe storms possible across far southeast KS late this
  afternoon and evening.

- Heat indices near 105 will continue this afternoon across far
  southeast KS.

- Seasonable temperatures expected over the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A an outflow boundary/effective front continues to be draped
across portions of far southeast Kansas this afternoon. This
front has been quite slow moving most of the day thus far.

Enough heating/destabilization is expected along and ahead of the
front this afternoon to continue to warrant the risk of a few severe
storms.  Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and heavy rain look to be the
primary concern with modest ML & DCAPE combo along with
anomalously high PW and steep lapse rates. Thinking initiation
time would be in the 21-01Z timeframe. Activity is expected to
drift southeast in northern Oklahoma by tonight with much
quieter conditions expected area wide overnight. For those with
outdoor Independence Day activities planned for tonight, expect
10pm temperatures to be in the 70s with a light north wind.

A quiet day is expected for much of the day tomorrow with
temperatures expected to remain slightly below seasonable normal
(92) in the mid and upper 80s. Ridging is expected to remain over
the western CONUS over the next several days while slowly
amplifying. Meanwhile, broad troughing will remain draped
across mid america with several shortwave perturbations progged
to pass through the Plains over the next week. These will
bring intermittent chances for showers and storms along with
seasonable temperatures to the area over the next week. The
next best chance (30%) of showers and storms across the area
will return on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions are expected for this TAF period. The only
terminal that may see some shower or thunderstorm activity is
KCNU and this is only expected in the first three to six hours
of the TAF period. At this time, expect the main area of
thunderstorm activity to remain to the south and east but could
see an isolated cell in the KCNU area. At this time, confidence
is too low to place it in the TAF and if thunderstorms reach
KCNU, main threat will be winds in the 40kt range and very
heavy rain reducing VSBYs. By 06Z tonight, all threat of
thunderstorms will end leaving VFR conditions for the remainder
of the TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...KMB
AVIATION...ELM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
556 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-052300-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
556 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance for a few strong to severe storms across far
southeast Kansas this evening. The strongest storms will be capable
of damaging winds up to 70 mph, quarter size hail and locally heavy
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Intermittent chances for storms exist Saturday through Wednesday. A
few storms may be strong to marginally severe on Saturday. Heavy
rain from storms may lead to localized flooding across the area,
especially on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict