Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
201 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms likely this evening mainly for south central and
  eastern KS.

- Pattern will remain active, especially for Wed night through
  Thu evening. Best chance for storms on 4th of July will be
  along and especially southeast of the KS Turnpike.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Currently have an upper trough swinging across the
Northern/Central Plains with upper ridging over the Southeast
CONUS. At the surface, cold front stretches from southeast KS to
south of KRSL and into the OK Panhandle.

Still looking for storms to develop along the cold front late
this afternoon or early evening. Extensive cloud cover over
central KS could delay convective development a couple hours, at
least until the front can get near the clouds southeast edge.
So current thinking is that storms will develop generally in the
21-23z time frame in a line from near Hutch to Marion, with
this activity slowly sagging south into the early evening hours.
Looks like storms will have around 2,000-2,500J/KG of CAPE to
work with along with 25-35kts of effective shear. So some low
end severe hail looks possible. In addition, will have plenty of
DCAPE to support severe downburst winds to 70 mph. With a very
high PW airmass in place along with a slow moving boundary,
heavy rain and localized flooding will also be a possibility
through the overnight hours.

Fairly messy forecast setting up for Wed with low confidence,
especially in shower and storm chances during the day. There
should be a low level baroclinic zone lingering around through
south central KS during the morning hours, with persistent
800-600mb moisture transport continuing through the day along
with a mid level convergence zone. So current thinking is that
we will keep some sct showers and iso storms around through much
of the day, especially across southern KS, with an overall
decrease in coverage through the afternoon hours. Models also
agree well on digging another upper impulse across the Northern
Intermountain Wed and into the Central Rockies by Wed evening.
Confidence is high that this will result in an MCS coming off
the High Plains Wed night. However, there is considerable
uncertainty on the location and track of the MCS. For now will
go with the thinking that most likely development will be over
northwest KS/sw Nebraska and will track east/southeast Wed
night, mainly affecting central and eastern KS. Will be enough
deep layer shear and instability for severe storms with the
activity Wed night.

By Thu afternoon, upper vort max will be tracking across
Nebraska with another cold front expected to be pushing south
across the area. By the late afternoon hours Thu, front should
be southeast of the KS Turnpike with storms forecast to develop
along it, affecting mainly far southern and much of southeast
KS. Still looking like a break from storms for both Fri and Sat
as we get into northwest flow aloft with strong upper ridging
over the Western CONUS. Will bring-in some storm chances
starting Sunday and continuing Sun night as an upper impulse
dives southeast out of the Northern Rockies and into the Central
Plains.

As far as temps go, clouds and precip should hold things down
for Wed with above normal highs Thu across southern and
Southeast KS ahead of the front. However, once we get into
northwest flow for the weekend into next week, highs should
return to normal or even slightly below normal which will be a
nice change.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 613 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions expected through at least 21Z, then thunderstorm
development expected to impact aviation interests thereafter.

This morning, a strong LLJ is inducing robust low-level wind
shear across the area. This should subside by late morning or
early afternoon, but breezy southern winds should continue south
of an approaching cold front. This cold front will accompany a
wind shift from southerly to northeasterly, and it will also be
the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon.

Some storms that develop this afternoon and evening could be
strong to severe with the main concerns being up to half-dollar
sized hail and localized 50 to 60-knot wind gusts. After 03Z,
chances for severe weather decrease, but lingering showers and
storms could continue to impact TAF sites through the remainder
of the TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ049>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
318 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-030915-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
318 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Late this afternoon and Tonight

Heat index values between 105 and 109 degrees are expected southeast
of a line from Salina to Lyons late this afternoon and early
evening. See latest heat advisory for additional details.

Severe storms are possible late this afternoon and evening across
portions of central and south central Kansas. Damaging winds up to
70 mph, half-dollar size hail and heavy rainfall are the primary
concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Storm chances will linger across the area during the day on
Wednesday with heavy rain the main threat. Storm chances will
increase Wednesday night, especially across central Kansas. Severe
storms producing large hail and damaging winds will be possible.

Storms are then expected to develop along a cold front late Thursday
afternoon into the evening hours with locations generally southeast
of the Kansas Turnpike having the better chances. Large hail,
damaging winds and heavy rain will be the main threats.

Heat indices around 105 will be possible Thursday afternoon across
far southern Kansas, especially for locations bordering Oklahoma.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

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