Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
200 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cluster of showers/storms moving into portions of central and
  south central KS

- Additional showers/storms possible this evening into tonight

- Hot temperatures continue into next week

- Active weather pattern with multiple rain chances Tuesday through
  Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

As of 2PM Saturday afternoon, a midlevel shortwave trough was
advancing across western KS. In response to this shortwave, a
cluster of showers and storms has developed across
central/south central KS. At this hour, the cluster extends from
just southwest of Great Bend, southward through Greensburg.
Given the forcing for ascent aloft and minimal inhibition, this
cluster should continue east-northeastward towards the
Interstate 135 corridor. The overall severe weather potential
seems relatively low, although DCAPE values upwards of 1300 J/kg
will support localized gusty winds up to 50 mph. Otherwise,
additional showers and storms are possible this evening into the
overnight with the shortwave trough remaining in the
neighborhood and increasing low-level WAA. Meager deep layer
shear should continue to limit the potential for severe storms.

Transitioning into Sunday and next week, the midlevel ridge axis
will amplify across the eastern CONUS early next week, leaving the
Plains on the western periphery. Temperatures will remain warm with
highs in the mid 90s through Tuesday. A western US trough will pivot
into the central states Tuesday into Wednesday, shunting a cold
front into KS. This should shunt the warmest temperatures into the
MS Valley. In addition, shower and storm chances will return Tuesday
night through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A upper level wave will move eastward across Kansas today and
will spark off some scattered showers/storms across parts of
central/south central Kansas. Any remaining storms are expected
to diminish shortly after sunset. Meanwhile south winds will
remain gusty across the region until late evening hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...CDJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
202 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-161915-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
202 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected across portions of central and south
central Kansas this afternoon. The strongest storms may produce
gusty winds up to 50 mph and brief heavy rainfall. Additional storms
are possible this evening and tonight. Severe weather is not
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Heat indices will intermittently range from the upper 90s to near
100 Sunday through Friday.

Strong south wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be possible across
portions of central Kansas Monday.

Intermittent storms are possible Tuesday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict