Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
222 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions yielding heat indices near 105 continue
  into the evening

- Severe thunderstorms expected late this afternoon into the evening

- Additional storms, some severe, possible late Friday into
  Friday night and again Saturday night, mainly across central
  KS

&&

.DISCUSSION...Issued at 218 PM

As of 2 PM Thursday afternoon, a broad area of midlevel ridging
remains parked across much of the central and southern Plains.
A northern stream shortwave trough near the Great Lakes has
pushed a cold front into portions of northern KS. A modest
temperature gradient resides along this boundary with 80s and
90s north with near 100 along and south. Coupling in dew points
in the 60s to near 70 degrees is contributing to heat indices
near 105. Further west, a triple point resides just south of
Goodland. Satellite reveals a deepening cumulus field near the
triple point. Latest CAMs suggest this cumulus field will be the
zone for convective initiation shortly. Continued surface
heating and modest convergence along the boundary should foster
additional development along the boundary into portions of
central KS by 5 PM. The background environment is not overly
favorable for organized convection with deep layer shear near 25
kt. That being said, MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg should support
strong initial updrafts and possibly a hail threat. In addition,
downdraft CAPE values are nearing 2000 J/kg which would support
strong downdrafts and damaging winds near 70 mph. Confidence
decreases with southern extent in regards to storm potential.
Should an established cold pool form, confidence would increase
for storms across south central KS. Otherwise, the diurnally
driven convection will likely decrease in coverage and intensity
shortly after sunset. All of that to say, the greatest
confidence for storms exists along and north of Highway 50.

Additional storms are possible Friday afternoon into Friday night as
the aforementioned surface trough sinks into central/southern KS.
The main limiting factor for widespread convection is increasing
midlevel temperatures throughout the day as the midlevel ridge axis
slides over the area. This would favor northern KS and adjacent
areas of NE for storm development. A stronger midlevel shortwave
trough is poised to eject into the state Saturday evening. This
should focus storms along a weak cold front across central and south
central KS.

Transitioning into next week, the midlevel ridge axis will amplify
across the eastern CONUS early next week, leaving the Plains on
its western periphery. Temperatures will remain warm with highs
in the mid 90s through Tuesday. A western US trough will pivot
into the central states Tuesday into Wednesday, shunting a cold
front into KS. This should shunt the warmest temperatures into
the MS Valley. In addition, shower and storm chances will return
Tuesday night through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated to dominate the region over the next
24 hours. Breezy southerly winds will prevail at all terminals
through ~22Z before a cold front approaching from the north brings
northerly winds behind it as it makes its way south. The main
aviation concern for the day lies in this front, which is expected
to touch off showers and storms as it moves through central Kansas.
Hail and strong winds will be possible with any storm that develops
from 22Z-04Z. Will AMD as necessary as storms initiate later this
afternoon. No TSRA mention in KICT or KCNU given uncertainty in the
south and eastward extent of storms at this time. Trends will be
monitored through the evening.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ033-048>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...BMB/JK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
225 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-141930-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
225 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Dangerous heat indices up to 106 degrees will continue this
afternoon and early evening. See latest heat advisory for additional
details.

Scattered storms are expected after 4 pm for locations mainly along
and north of Highway 50. The strongest activity will be capable of
producing hail up to ping-pong ball size and damaging winds up to
70
mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms are forecast for Friday night through Saturday night.
A few strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall are
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict