Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
647 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More strong to severe storms possible mainly tonight into early
  Sunday.

- Cool down for Sunday through Tuesday.

- Temperatures warming near to above average once again by Wednesday
  and beyond.

- Off-and-on slight chances for thunderstorms Tuesday through
  next weekend, but predictability is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Challenges: Precipitation chances, coverage and intensity

Changes: Precipitation chances and respective timing

A hot and steamy summer day occurred in Kansas this afternoon for
many locations with temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s and
higher dewpoints which led to heat indices around 100 degrees in
southern Kansas. Locations behind a front had stronger winds to help
move the air around a bit compared to locations out ahead of it with
minimal wind. A few showers developed in southern Kansas this
afternoon with mainly sprinkles or some light rain. While the areas
in eastern Kansas have become uncapped with some forcing from the
front, warmer air aloft is arguably playing a role in further
development. The main focus for showers and thunderstorms shifts to
late tonight.

It is still presumed that a complex of thunderstorms will develop in
the High Plains late this afternoon/evening then tromp east across
Kansas. Radar is already showing convective initiation along the
Front Range tracking east. Given the location of initiation, the
main threat will be damaging wind gusts (60-70 mph) by the time that
it reaches central portions of Kansas with similar to later timing
to what occurred last night. Stronger winds are expected over
western Kansas. Given greater instability across southern Kansas,
more widespread coverage is anticipated. Some CAMs suggest
convective initiation in Missouri to build back west and connect
with the westward complex essentially along the southward moving
front while others keep east activity to the east. Current timing
into central Kansas is after 10/11PM maybe closer to and after
midnight. Heavy rain is anticipated which could lead to flooding
concerns across the area. Lingering showers and thunderstorms occur
into the morning hours with most of the activity pushing south and
east by the afternoon. Colder air should follow with temperatures
around 80 degrees or below seasonal normal by around five degrees to
cap off the weekend.

This summer type pattern suggests another complex of storms could
develop along the Front Range on Sunday afternoon bringing slight
(20-30%) chances after midnight (early Monday) in south central
Kansas. As mentioned in the previous discussion, below seasonal
temperatures are anticipated for the first part of next week. An
upper low may bring the next round of showers and storms on Tuesday.
After the few days of a cool down, near and above normal
temperatures return from Wednesday onward. The summer like pattern
and subtleties in the mid and upper level flow could result in
showers and thunderstorms through this period. It is challenging to
have any confidence in the likelihood and respective coverage with
this type of activity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions expected area wide until late tonight. Storms are
expected to roll east off the High Plains and impact along and
west of a line from KSLN to KICT in the 5-9z window and points
east thereof 8-12z. Damaging winds (50-65mph+) and heavy rain
will be possible along with reduced flight categories in
thunderstorm activity. By 12z most thunderstorm activity should
have exited the area with MVFR cigs likely lingering through mid
morning. Expect breezy northeast winds for much of the area
thru end of TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...VJP
AVIATION...KMB

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