Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
619 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms this afternoon/evening, especially
  across central and eastern KS

- Several showers/storm chances through the weekend and possibly
  into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

As of 130 PM, a rinse and repeat pattern was ongoing across the
Plains with multiple remnant MCVs spinning about. The two impacting
the weather locally are position across central KS and northeast OK.
To begin with, the MCV across northeast OK continues to rotate
showers/storms north and northwestward across portions of Labette,
Neosho, and Allen counties. The expectation is for the MCV to
gradually move east this evening, shunting the best rain chances
eastward. The second MCV across central KS has been relatively
benign thus far with mostly dry conditions. Latest visible satellite
imagery reveals a deepening cumulus field across central KS with
mixed-layer inhibition approaching zero. With the nearby MCV,
scattered convection is probable this afternoon from Barton and
Russell counties and points east. Effective shear remains meager,
therefore organize convection is not expected. That being said,
precipitable water values remain above 1.2" which supports heavy
rain. As diurnal cooling ensue this evening, convection should
decrease in coverage.

Like prior days, additional convection is expected this afternoon
across the High Plains with a gradual march eastward. Model guidance
is good agreement with any upscale growth across eastern CO/western
KS will tend to move more southeasterly overnight and into the best
low-level theta-e. Therefore, shower/storm chances are quite low
overnight area-wide.

The active pattern will continue through the weekend and possibly
into next week with weak perturbations translating across the Plains
atop a weakly to moderately unstable environment. Confidence is
increasing for the active pattern continuing into next weekend with
the potential for an amplified midlevel ridge axis sliding into the
Plains decreasing. This result would keep shower/storm chances going
and temperatures in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected over part of
the region for the first six to eight hours of the TAf period.
KICT, KSLN, KHUT are the most likely terminals to see this
thunderstorm activity. Unfortunately, this activity could
produce a brief wind gust up to 45kts at times with very heavy
which could be rather persistent. Once the rain starts, it may
not depart for a few hours. The remainder of the TAF is expected
to remain fairly quite with only MVFR and some IFR CIGs likely
through much of the late morning. These MVFR/IFR CIGs are likely
to slowly dissipate or depart the region around 17Z tomorrow.
However, this will allow another round of showers and
thunderstorms to develop across the region. Confidence is not
high enough to place even a PROB30 in the TAF at this time but
chances are good that at least one terminal will see some
afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity after 18Z.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...ELM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
205 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-011915-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
205 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will continue across central
and southeast Kansas into the early evening hours. Severe weather
is not expected but heavy rain may result in localized flooding.
More storms are possible across south central Kansas late tonight.
Severe weather is not expected with any of this activity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Periodic chances for storms are forecast to affect the region
Saturday night through Wednesday. The storms could become more
numerous especially for Sunday night and Tuesday night across the
region. Some of the storms could become strong or severe this
period. In addition, the showers and storms could create some
flooding problems for some locations that see repeated rounds of
rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict