Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
525 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms possible this evening; mainly across southern
  KS

- Additional shower/storm chances (20-40%) Thursday and Friday
  across southeast KS

- Mainly quiet over the weekend with rain/storm chances
  returning next week&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

As of 3 PM Wednesday afternoon, a complex weather setup was evolving
across portions of central KS into OK. A prolonged period of
elevated showers and storms moved across southern and southeast KS
leaving an outflow boundary in its wake from east central OK into
south central KS. Based on the latest surface analysis this outflow
boundary intersects the synoptic front in southern Stafford County
or northern Pratt County. This boundary is likely to be the focal
point for storm development. MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg and a long,
veering hodograph will support supercell structures with large hail
up to golf ball size and damaging winds. As the evening progresses,
a relatively dry boundary layer should foster cold pool/RFD mergers
and a gradual upscale growth into more linear structures.
Transitioning into the overnight, storms are likely to become
elevated with a heavy rain threat across mainly southeast KS.

The effective boundary is likely to progress southeast of the
forecast area on Thursday. That being said, additional shower and
storms are possible north of the boundary across southeast KS.
Effective shear values less than 20 kt should limit the potential
for severe storms.

As we transition Friday into the weekend, a northern stream,
midlevel trough will slide across the northern Plains. Limited
moisture should keep things mostly dry Friday and Saturday. A more-
active midlevel pattern will emerge early next week as a
southwestern US trough develops. This will increase the potential
for storms, including severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are most likely to develop
or move into south central Kansas later this evening. Some could
be severe. A complex of storms may form and move eastward
across south central and southeast Kansas overnight.
Thunderstorms may also affect parts of central Kansas early
tonight. MVFR/IFR stratus cigs are expected to develop behind a
front toward dawn in parts of central and south central Kansas.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...KED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
331 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-162045-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
331 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorm chances will increase late this afternoon and evening
across central, south central, and southeast Kansas. The strongest
activity will be capable of golf sized hail, 60 to 70 mph winds,
and a tornado can't be ruled out. In addition, pockets of very heavy
rainfall and localized flooding is possible. The greatest severe
weather threat will be across mainly southern Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Periodic chances for thunderstorms will remain in the forecast for
Thursday, Friday, and Sunday through Tuesday. A few storms could be
strong to severe Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
638 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     Hail             Caldwell                37.04N 97.61W
05/15/2024  E1.00 Inch       Sumner             KS   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
640 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     Hail             3 N Caldwell            37.08N 97.60W
05/15/2024  E1.75 Inch       Sumner             KS   Public

            Report from mPING: Golf Ball (1.75 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
648 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     Hail             4 NW Belle Plaine       37.43N 97.33W
05/15/2024  E0.70 Inch       Sumner             KS   Trained Spotter

&&

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