Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1226 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
* Risk for severe thunderstorms tonight across the Flint Hills
  and southeast Kansas.

* Brief cool down on Friday with another cool down Sun-Mon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

A warm front was mixing northward across the area early this
morning and is expected to be in the vicinity of the I-70
corridor late this afternoon. This frontal zone will become a
focus for showers and storms after 21Z. Low level mass
convergence will allow dewpoint temperatures to pool in the warm
frontal zone allowing the cap to weaken sufficiently for
scattered storms to develop as the pv anomaly lifts out of the
base of the H5 toward 00Z. As you move southward along the
anticipated dryline, the airmass may remain capped to deep moist
convection. Low level backed flow in the vicinity of the warm
front along the I-70 corridor will be the most likely location
for a tornado or two in addition to very large hail and damaging
winds.

As we move into the overnight hours, the dryline is progged to
retreat westward. There remains a nonzero chance for a storm or two
along the retreating dryline but point soundings show a considerable
cap which may preclude more vigorous and widespread deep moist
convection. Higher probabilities will remain across northeast Kansas
where the nose of the LLJ should provide sufficient
lift/moisture for more widespread development. A slow moving
cold front will eventually merge and overtake the dryline late
tonight and into the morning hours on Thursday. The low level
frontal zone will continue moving southeast on Thursday and will
likely be south and east of our forecast area on Thursday
afternoon when the next round of deep moist convection is
anticipated. Some low pops were maintained in far southeast KS
to account for uncertainty in the movement. Cooler air will
overspread central KS with highs struggling to climb out of the
50s while far southeast KS will see well above normal highs once
again with values topping out in the upper 70s.

Fri-Sat...Cooler air will overspread the area on Friday with
seasonable temperatures in the 50s and low 60s anticipated. Another
vigorous shortwave trough is progged to dig into the Great Lakes
area on Saturday driving a reinforcing shot of cooler air into the
Plains. This shot of cool air will be slow to arrive with seasonably
mild temperatures expected on Sat.

Northwest mid/upper flow will prevail into the middle of next week
allowing dry weather conditions to persist across the area. A
series of more subtle shortwave troughs will drive some frontal
boundaries southward bringing little more than a wind shift with
seasonably mild temperatures anticipated through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Best chance for strong to severe convection overnight will be
east of the Kansas turnpike until about 10z. Gusty/mesoscale
perturbed winds expected along and behind the convection though
generally northerly behind a cold front across central Kansas.
The front will make slow progress across southeast Kansas during
Thursday with gusty north winds in all locales by the late
afternoon and evening on Thursday. Expect to see some
development of post-frontal MVFR stratus toward dawn in central
Kansas, spreading gradually southeast during the day.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

A brief window will exist late this afternoon and early evening for
a period of very high grassland fire danger across south central
Kansas as a dryline mixes eastward into the area. Gusty south to
southwest winds may allow for a brief window where relative humidity
falls with wind gusts to around 30+ mph at times.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...MWM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1058 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-150400-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1058 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered storms will affect central Kansas until about midnight. A
couple strong storms will be possible with small hail.

Another area of thunderstorms is expected to develop across the
Flint Hills and southeast Kansas after midnight. These storms will
be capable of quarter size hail and damaging winds to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Depending on the speed of a cold front on Thursday, there could be
a slight chance for strong to severe storms across far southeast
Kansas in the late afternoon. The main risks will be dime to
quarter size hail and 50 to 60 mph wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1211 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

KSZ069-083-140545-
Butler KS-Sedgwick KS-
1211 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN SEDGWICK AND BUTLER
COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 AM CDT...

At 1211 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rose Hill, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wichita, Derby, El Dorado, Andover, Augusta, Mulvane, Rose Hill,
Douglass, Towanda, Benton, Leon, Potwin, Rosalia, Santa Fe Lake, El
Dorado State Park, Augusta Municipal Airport, El Dorado Airport, and
El Dorado Lake.

This includes Interstate 35 between Mile Markers 51 and 86.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
south central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3798 9713 3799 9661 3775 9662 3748 9688
      3748 9726
TIME...MOT...LOC 0511Z 228DEG 48KT 3761 9710

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CUELLAR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1222 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1221 AM     Hail             Douglass                37.52N 97.01W
03/14/2024  M0.75 inch       Butler             KS   Emergency Mngr

&&

Baerg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1224 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

KSZ069-092-093-140600-
Butler KS-Cowley KS-Sumner KS-
1224 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN COWLEY...SOUTHERN BUTLER
AND EASTERN SUMNER COUNTIES THROUGH 100 AM CDT...

At 1224 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Douglass to near South Haven. Movement was
east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Arkansas City, Winfield, Mulvane, Rose Hill, Douglass, Belle Plaine,
Oxford, Udall, Leon, South Haven, Atlanta, Geuda Springs, Rock,
Hunnewell, Winfield City Lake, and Strother Field Airport.

This includes Interstate 35 between Mile Markers 1 and 18.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
south central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9748 3748 9723 3748 9715 3758 9715
      3776 9657 3700 9701
TIME...MOT...LOC 0524Z 249DEG 48KT 3754 9696 3710 9733

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CUELLAR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1243 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

KSZ069-070-094-140630-
Butler KS-Greenwood KS-Elk KS-
1243 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ELK...EASTERN BUTLER
AND WESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 130 AM CDT...

At 1243 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles east of El Dorado to 8 miles east of
Douglass. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eureka, Leon, Latham, Rosalia, Cassoday, Eureka City Lake, Beaumont,
Eureka Airport, Thrall, El Dorado State Park, and El Dorado Lake.

This includes Interstate 35 between Mile Markers 93 and 95.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
south central and southeastern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3809 9611 3748 9648 3748 9699 3808 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0543Z 245DEG 36KT 3788 9667 3753 9686

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CUELLAR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
105 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 AM     Hail             2 S Arkansas City       37.05N 97.04W
03/14/2024  E0.88 inch       Cowley             KS   Law Enforcement

&&

Baerg

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
121 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0119 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 N Eureka              37.85N 96.29W
03/14/2024  M59 MPH          Greenwood          KS   AWOS

            Measured at Eureka Municipal Airport.

&&

Baerg