River Flood Warning 1, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
550 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms likely through tonight, some of which will be
  severe. All severe hazards are possible.

- Slight risk of a few severe storms eastern KS Sunday PM.

- Off-and-on thunderstorm chances return Tuesday afternoon
  through Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Thunderstorm mode has ended up being rather messy so far given
meridional component to mid-upper flow, multiple storms on the
scope, and multiple storm mergers. This should tend to limit how
many storms are capable of "higher-end" severe weather. However,
strong low and deep layer shear coupled with moderate to strong
instability will continue to favor a severe weather threat,
especially over southeast Kansas were the airmass has been
relatively undisturbed (outside of dense anvil debris). In this
area, favorable low-level shear, low-level instability, and low
cloud bases will support tornadoes with any embedded supercell or
QLCS structures. Damaging winds are also possible. The large hail
threat (anything greater than golfballs or so) will likely be
confined to cells that remain more discrete.

Another area of concern is north-central Kansas, where a slowly
northward retreating boundary is situated. Any cells that can become
rooted along this boundary will ingest rich low-level shear
along/just north of the boundary, and be capable of all severe
hazards (including tornadoes).

Additional storms may develop this afternoon-evening up and down the
dryline across western portions of KS-OK, with this activity then
tracking rapidly northeast. There's some concern that current
widespread storm coverage and associated dense anvil cirrus east of
the dryline will limit instability and associated storm potential
along the dryline. However, if storms are able to form, CAPE/shear
combination will support all severe hazards with this activity,
especially if storms can remain more discrete.

A third round of storms may develop by later this evening over
western and central portions of KS-OK, ahead of approaching upper
forcing and mid-level cooling. The primary threat with this activity
would likely be 60+ mph winds (if storms are able to become severe)
given the stronger forcing and increasingly unfavorable hodographs.

Another threat we don't want to forget this afternoon through
tonight is heavy rainfall and localized flooding, especially from
roughly the KS Turnpike corridor on southeast, as numerous
thunderstorms continue to train northeast. Pockets of 1-3+ inches
are likely, and may fall in a short period. Consequently, areas of
street and low-land flooding are likely, along with modest to sharp
rises in area streams and rivers, again mainly along and southeast
of the KS Turnpike.

For Sunday, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will remain
possible over eastern KS, generally along and east of the Flint
Hills corridor, as the dryline continues to advance east. If a storm
or two is able to form (they may struggle due to decreasing
forcing), hail and wind would be the primary threats.

Taking a look ahead...an off-and-on active weather pattern
thunderstorm-wise looks to take shape once again Tuesday
afternoon/evening through Thursday night. Stay tuned, as we continue
to refine forecast details the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

TSRA is expected to continue in the CNU vicinity through 03Z with -
RA expected afterwards to 12Z.  Elsewhere, potential for convection
remains low enough to not warrant any specific mention in the TAF
but if it occurs, it looks most likely during the 07-12Z timeframe
near HUT and ICT. MVFR to potentially IFR cigs are possible towards
daybreak at RSL, SLN, and GBD with highest confidence at SLN. Brief
lowered vsbys are also possible but confidence is not as high.
Southerly winds will gradually become northerly to westerly with
gusts to 25kts returning tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for KSZ052-053-068>072-
083-091>096-098>100.

&&

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...White

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
505 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-282215-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
505 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will remain likely across
central and especially southeast Kansas through this evening and
tonight. Some of the storms will be severe, capable of baseball size
hail, winds greater than 75 mph, and tornadoes. The greatest severe
weather threat should occur before midnight. Locally very heavy
rainfall will also impact mainly southeast Kansas, supporting
pockets of flash flooding of streets, roads, and low- lying areas.
Modest to sharp rises in area streams and rivers are possible as
well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two will remain
possible Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly along and east of the
Flint Hills. The main threats will be quarter size hail and 60 mph
winds.

There will be more off-and-on chances for thunderstorms across much
of the area from late Tuesday through Thursday night. There is some
risk for severe weather, stay tuned for later forecasts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely through late this evening.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
956 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0954 PM     Flash Flood      3 WSW Elk Falls         37.36N 96.25W
04/27/2024                   Elk                KS   Public

            Road closed near Highway 160 and Dove Road
            due to water over road.

&&

JAS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1002 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     Flash Flood      5 ESE Longton           37.34N 96.01W
04/27/2024                   Elk                KS   911 Call Center

            Roadway closed due to water over road by Oak
            Valley along Highway 160 and mile marker
            382.

&&

JAS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1003 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1001 PM     Hail             4 N Manchester          37.05N 98.04W
04/27/2024  M0.75 Inch       Harper             KS   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

&&

JAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1004 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KSZ091-092-280345-
Harper KS-Sumner KS-
1004 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN HARPER AND WEST CENTRAL
SUMNER COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM CDT...

At 1004 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Manchester, or 6 miles south of Anthony, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Anthony, Argonia, Bluff City, Danville, Freeport, and Runnymede.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3707 9820 3738 9792 3720 9767 3700 9796
      3700 9810
TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 222DEG 25KT 3707 9806

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BAERG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1014 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 PM     Hail             1.5 E Petrolia          37.75N 95.44W
04/27/2024  M1.00 Inch       Allen              KS   Law Enforcement

&&

JAS