Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Wichita, KS

062 
WWUS83 KICT 170823
RFWICT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wichita KS
323 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-180100-
/O.CON.KICT.FW.W.0007.241017T1700Z-241018T0100Z/
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-
Chase-
323 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 032, 033, 047, 048, 049, 050, 051, 052, AND 053...

* Extreme Grassland Fire Danger...Is forecast.

* Winds...South 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 23 percent.

* Impacts...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly 
  and become very difficult to control. Outdoor burning is not 
  recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this fire weather product.

&&

$$

193 
WWUS83 KICT 172058
RFWICT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wichita KS
358 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-180100-
/O.CON.KICT.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-241018T0100Z/
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-
Chase-
358 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 032,
033, 047, 048, 049, 050, 051, 052, AND 053...

* Extreme Grassland Fire Danger...Is forecast.

* Winds...South 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 20 percent.

* Impacts...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly 
  and become very difficult to control. Outdoor burning is not 
  recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this fire weather product.

&&

$$

312 
WWUS83 KICT 180051
RFWICT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wichita KS
751 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-180200-
/O.EXP.KICT.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-241018T0100Z/
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-
Chase-
751 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 032, 033,
047, 048, 049, 050, 051, 052, AND 053...

While gusty south winds will continue overnight, increasing
relative humidity values will lessen the extreme fire danger.
Therefore the red flag warning will be allowed to expire at 8 pm.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
116 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty south winds expected Thursday-Friday, wind advisory
  levels likely being reached across mainly central Kansas.

- Very high to extreme grassland fire danger likely across
  central Kansas and portions of south central Kansas Wednesday
  through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024

As advertised, it's a chilly start this morning with most
locations in the upper 20s and lower 30s. As surface troughing
strengthens across eastern CO/western KS today as the surface
high pressure exits to the east, southerly winds will return to
the forecast area with breezy conditions expected across
central Kansas. These breezy winds combined with a dry airmass
will lead to elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon with
GFDI values in the very high category. These breezy southerly
winds along with plenty of sunshine will allow temperatures to
rebound back into the lower 60s by this afternoon.

The surface pressure gradient will tighten even more on Thursday and
Friday leading to breezy to windy conditions across the entire
forecast area with the strongest winds occurring over central Kansas
once again. Sustained wind speeds near Wind Advisory criteria (30+
mph) still look possible across central Kansas where wind gusts up
to 50 mph as we mix up to around 850 mb. These stronger winds
will lead to critical fire weather concerns across the northern
half of the forecast area and a Fire Weather Watch has been
issued for Barton to Chase counties and points northward
Thursday afternoon. With increasing heights aloft, temperatures
will also be on the rebound back into the 70s both days.

For this weekend an upper-level low is expected to sit and spin
across the Desert Southwest. This will direct a moisture plume into
the High Plains but it continues to appear to be just to the west of
our forecast area. With that said though, a few showers may
sneak into our western counties throughout the weekend but dry
conditions will prevail for most of the time. Temperatures will
also remain fairly steady with afternoon high temperatures in
the low to mid 70s. This low will eventually begin to move to
the northeast Sunday into Monday and should swing over the
forecast area on Monday. Monday currently appears to be the best
day for seeing precipitation in our area however due to the
quick hitting nature this won't be a drought buster. Dry
conditions will return to the region Tuesday with temperatures
slowly warming through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours,
but gusty winds will create concerns for aviation interests.

Southerly winds are on the increase this afternoon along and
west of the Flint Hills with sustained winds around 15 knots and
gusts around 20 to 30 knots at times. While gusts decrease
tonight, sustained winds will gradually increase during the
overnight hours as the pressure gradient tightens across the
area. A brief period of low level wind shear is possible
Thursday morning as a strong low-level jet resides over the
region. Better mixing during the late morning/early afternoon
hours on Thursday will allow for stronger wind gusts to mix to
the surface. Much of the region will see sustained winds around
15 to 25 knots during the afternoon hours with gusts around 30
to 35 knots. However, portions of central Kansas will likely see
sustained winds around 25 to 30 knots with gusts around 40 to 45
knots possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across central Kansas
this afternoon as relative humidity values drop into the 15-20%
range. This dry air combined with southerly winds around 20 to 25
mph and gusts up to 35 mph will produce very high Grassland Fire
Danger.

Extreme Grassland Fire Danger is possible on Thursday as southerly
winds of 30 to 35 mph and gusts up to 50 mph are possible with
afternoon relative humidity values of 25-30%. Due to this potential
a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Thursday afternoon and
evening from Barton county to Chase county and points northward. The
rest of the area will remain within high to very high Grassland Fire
Danger due to slightly weaker winds.

Very high to isolated extreme Grassland Fire Danger is forecast to
develop along and west of I-35 on Friday as well. Temperatures will
be 5 to 10 degrees above average with relative humidity values
between 25% and 35%. Wind speeds will be slightly weaker as well
with sustained winds around 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph
possible.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for KSZ032-033-047>053.

&&

DISCUSSION...WI
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...WI

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
120 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-171830-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
120 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Very high Grassland Fire Danger will develop across central Kansas
this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Warm and windy conditions will support very high to extreme
grassland fire danger Thursday and Friday, mainly over central and
portions of south-central Kansas. The highest fire danger will be
on
Thursday and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for central
Kansas.

A smattering of hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms will impact
the region Saturday through Monday. The highest chances look to be
Sunday night and Monday. Severe weather or widespread heavy
rainfall is not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict