Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Wichita, KS

159 
WWUS83 KICT 060703
RFWICT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wichita KS
203 AM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024

KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091-062215-
/O.CON.KICT.FW.W.0004.240406T1700Z-240407T0100Z/
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Rice-Reno-Kingman-Harper-
203 AM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 032, 033, 047, 048, 050, 067, 082, AND 091...

* Extreme Grassland Fire Danger...Is forecast.

* Winds...South 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 17 percent.

* Impacts...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly 
  and become very difficult to control. Outdoor burning is not 
  recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this fire weather product.

&&

$$

655 
WWUS83 KICT 061845
RFWICT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wichita KS
145 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024

KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091-070100-
/O.CON.KICT.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-240407T0100Z/
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Rice-Reno-Kingman-Harper-
145 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 032,
033, 047, 048, 050, 067, 082, AND 091...

* Extreme Grassland Fire Danger...Is forecast.

* Winds...South 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 percent.

* Impacts...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly 
  and become very difficult to control. Outdoor burning is not 
  recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this fire weather product.

&&

$$

463 
WWUS83 KICT 070102
RFWICT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wichita KS
802 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024

KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091-070215-
/O.EXP.KICT.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-240407T0100Z/
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Rice-Reno-Kingman-Harper-
802 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 032, 033, 047, 048, 050, 067, 082, AND
091...

While fire danger will remain elevated for a few more hours this
evening, the threat for critical fire danger has ended.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1236 PM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* An active day expected on Saturday with damaging non-
  thunderstorm winds, elevated to near-critical fire weather
  conditions, and the potential for strong to marginally severe
  storms.

* Pattern appears to remain active next week, but severe weather is
  not expected next week at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024

Analyzing water vapor satellite early this morning, a shortwave
ridge residing over the central plains is sandwiched by a pair of
potent mid/upper troughs sitting over New England and the western
CONUS. With the approach of the next system, pressure falls across
the High Plains have already begun, and southerly flow is expected
to resume today. However, the airmass remains quite dry thanks to a
clean sweep of moisture from our previous system. With warmer
temperatures, increasing winds, and this dry air, a brief period of
very high grassland fire danger is possible this afternoon across
central Kansas.

As a strong mid/upper jet screams over the Rockies and ejects into
the Plains late tonight into Saturday, robust lee cyclogenesis is
expected across northwest Kansas/southwest Nebraska. A very tight
pressure gradient along with deep mixing both ahead and behind an
advancing dryline on Saturday will likely lead to very windy
conditions. Non-thunderstorm wind gusts Saturday afternoon and
evening will likely approach or exceed 50 to 60 mph at times,
especially along and west of the I-135 corridor. It doesn't appear
as through the synoptic front will catch up with the dryline until
late Saturday evening. This will likely create a period of time of
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon
for locations west of I-135 as much drier air pairs with strong
southwest/west winds. As mentioned previously, the airmass is
expected to remain quite dry even with robust southerly flow. The
nearest consistent dewpoints in the 60s currently reside along the
Gulf Coast... in Mexico. Therefore, the current expectation is for a
narrow corridor of rather poor moisture streaming northward ahead of
the advancing dryline. With little to no capping and robust synoptic
lift, a skinny line of broken showers and storms appear somewhat
likely to develop along and east of the I-135 corridor around 20-22Z
Saturday afternoon. While shear does support organized convection,
instability will be quiet modest, perhaps only 500 J/kg MLCAPE right
along the dryline. At best, it looks like portions of eastern Kansas
may see high-based, low-top supercells capable of producing 60-65
mph winds and up to quarter-size hail. The tornado threat looks very
low at this time across the ICT CWA. Unfortunately, due to the
nature of this system, not much rainfall is expected. Perhaps up to
a quarter-inch of rainfall is possible across southeast Kansas, but
this forecast may be a bit high and adjustments in this aspect of
the forecast may be needed over the next 24 hours.

Sunday will be another windy day, especially across central Kansas
where sustained westerly winds will be around 30 to 35 mph with
gusts up to 50 mph possible. This paired with dry conditions will
support another day of very high grassland fire danger along and
west of the I-135 corridor. A somewhat active pattern is expected
over the southern/central plains next week.
However, there are some uncertainties in the exact track of next
week's systems which has caused a large spread of outcomes in the
mid/long range global ensembles. Still rain chances remain in the
forecast across far southern Kansas starting late Monday night and
ending early Thursday morning. The best rain chances for much of the
area next week continue to be late Wednesday, but this may change
over the coming days as uncertainty remains high. However, it does
not appear as though any of the activity next week will come in the
form of severe weather. Going into next weekend, current long range
models suggest dry and mild conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Southeasterly will continue into the 10-15 kt range with a few
gusts up to 25 kt at RSL and GBD. Otherwise, winds will back to
the ESE at 10-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after sunset. LLWS
conditions will overspread the central and south central KS
terminals after 02z as a 45-50 kt LLJ near 2.0 kft overspreads
the area. LLWS conditions subside by 14z as southerly wind gusts
increase to 20-30 kt with further strengthening by midday to
20-30 kt, gusting 40-45 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024

Fire Weather Concerns Return this Weekend

On Saturday, very high grassland fire danger is expected along and
west of the Flint Hills while extreme grassland fire danger is
expected west of the I-135 corridor. Very strong south winds
will shift to southwesterly during the afternoon and evening
hours. Winds will be sustained around 35 to 40 mph wind gusts
around 50 to 60 mph for locations along and west of the Flint
Hills. Relative humidity will be around 20 to 35% along and west
of the Flint Hills.

On Sunday, very windy and dry conditions will continue on Sunday
across portions of central and south-central Kansas. This will
support very high grassland fire danger across these areas. Winds
will be westerly sustained around 30 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50
mph possible. Relative humidity will be around 20 to 30%.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091.
High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...BMB
FIRE WEATHER...JC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
840 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-061345-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
840 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Very strong southerly winds with gusts around 50 to 60 mph are
expected on Saturday across the area. See latest High Wind Watch
for additional details.

Very strong winds and low relative humidity will support very high
to extreme grassland fire danger Saturday afternoon for locations
along and west of the Flint Hills. See latest Fire Weather Watch
for additional details.

A thin line of fast moving showers and storms is expected to
develop Saturday afternoon and race quickly off to the northeast
into the early evening hours. The stronger storms will be capable of
nickel to quarter size hail along with up to 65 mph wind gusts.

Windy and dry conditions will support very high grassland fire
danger is expected across portions of central and south-central
Kansas on Sunday. Westerly wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible.

Chances for showers and storms exist from late Monday through early
Thursday. Currently severe weather is not expected next week, but
stay tuned for updates to the forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict