Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

217 
WWUS54 KHGX 152033
SVSHGX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
333 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

TXC481-152042-
/O.CAN.KHGX.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-240315T2100Z/
Wharton TX-
333 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WHARTON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southeastern Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2941 9590 2949 9595 2969 9565 2958 9543
      2944 9547 2944 9548
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 252DEG 34KT 2952 9563 

$$

TXC039-157-201-152100-
/O.CON.KHGX.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-240315T2100Z/
Fort Bend TX-Brazoria TX-Harris TX-
333 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL FORT BEND...NORTHWESTERN BRAZORIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
HARRIS COUNTIES...

At 332 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Thompsons, or
near First Colony, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Sugar Land, Missouri City, Rosenberg, Stafford, Richmond, Town West,
Pecan Grove, First Colony, Fresno, Mission Bend, Meadows Place,
Arcola, Pleak, Fairchilds, Beasley, Thompsons, Sienna, New Territory,
Four Corners, and Greatwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2941 9590 2949 9595 2969 9565 2958 9543
      2944 9547 2944 9548
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 252DEG 34KT 2952 9563 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Adams

080 
WWUS54 KHGX 152044
SVSHGX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
344 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

TXC039-152053-
/O.CAN.KHGX.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-240315T2100Z/
Brazoria TX-
344 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southeastern Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2946 9581 2955 9586 2969 9565 2958 9543
      2946 9546
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 242DEG 17KT 2951 9574 

$$

TXC157-201-152100-
/O.CON.KHGX.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-240315T2100Z/
Fort Bend TX-Harris TX-
344 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN FORT BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTIES...

At 343 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Pleak, or near
Rosenberg, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Western Pearland, Sugar Land, Missouri City, Rosenberg, Stafford,
Richmond, Town West, Pecan Grove, First Colony, Fresno, Mission Bend,
Meadows Place, Arcola, Pleak, Fairchilds, Thompsons, Sienna, New
Territory, Four Corners, and Greatwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2946 9581 2955 9586 2969 9565 2958 9543
      2946 9546
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 242DEG 17KT 2951 9574 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Adams

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1247 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

A potentially active short-term is expected with the approach/pass-
age/stalling of a cold front as well as weak shortwave activity at
the upper levels.

Warm/muggy weather this morning will transition to more warm/muggy
weather this afternoon but with increasing rain chances across our
northern FA (stretching from the Brazos Valley to the Piney Woods)
as the next cold front begins moving into the region. Abundant low
level moisture along with daytime heating(increasing instability)/
favorable shear should lead to the development of thunderstorms a-
long/near the front. Some storms could be strong or severe as they
track into the area from west later this afternoon. But that being
said, SPC has shrunk the Slight Risk area (level 2 of 5) a bit for
our W/NW counties in their Day 1 outlook. However, a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) will remain in place through today/tonight for much
of SE TX. The primary threat with these storms will be large hail.

In addition to the severe weather threat, there is also the threat
for excessive rainfall with this activity later this afternoon and
continuing tonight (and through Sat/Sun). And much like the severe
potential, WPC has trimmed the Slight Risk area (level 2 of 4) for
today/tonight, to only western portions of the CWA. Elsewhere, the
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) will continue.

With the stalled cold front across SE TX (likely just inland/along
the coast), Sat could be a rather wet day. The potential for heavy
rain and flooding will depend a lot on what happens today/tonight
(to some extent) but conditions do remain favorable for the devel-
opment of additional activity tomorrow and tomorrow night. There's
still uncertainty with regards to timing/location for the heaviest
rains per the track of the embedded disturbances in the flow aloft
(from around the base of the closed upper low lingering just south
of the Four Corners). WPC has almost all of SE TX in a Slight Risk
for excessive rain for Sat/Sat night. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

The wet pattern that will dominate the upcoming weekend is
expected to continue into Sunday as the slowly advancing frontal
boundary continues to push offshore while a developing weak
surface trough along the coast continues to advance towards the
Central Gulf. The midlevel pattern will continue to be
characterized by the passage of several weak shortwaves that
should continue to produce fairly widespread showers and storms.
The slow advance of the boundary should shift the main axis of
rainfall towards the coast, where an additional 1-2 inches of
rainfall are possible on Sunday before a shift to northeast winds
behind the departing front will bring a surge of drier air to the
area. While heavy rainfall will ultimately be limited by a lack of
available SB instability, low-level moisture still remains
abundant and some pockets of locally heavy rain will remain
possible closer to the coast. WPC continues to maintain a Marginal
risk of excessive rainfall for areas along and south of the I-10
corridor for the time being. Severe storm development, while again
not impossible, will also be limited by weaker speed shear and
less SB instability compared to previous days.

As the front advances offshore on Monday, a shift to moderate
northeast winds will put a temporary end to the wet pattern as an
influx of drier air brings a return to more seasonable conditions.
Daytime highs on Monday will struggle to eclipse 70, while clear
skies and steady CAA will drive lows into the 40s to low 50s.
Winds taper off on Tuesday as surface high pressure moves overhead
as highs remain in the 60s, with moisture return underway by
Tuesday night as this surface high shifts into the Central Gulf.

Models currently remain in disagreement for the mid-late week
period. GFS shows a more progressive development of the next upper
low/trough, which in its most recent solution will induce a
coastal low by late Wednesday which could bring our next period of
widespread (and possibly heavy) rain. EC solution, on the other
hand, shows a slower and less potent upper low with most of the
associated rainfall occuring on Thursday. Nonetheless, the pattern
as we head into the middle/end of the upcoming week should be
fairly unsettled with increasing rainfall chances.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

GLS at IFR with limited VSBYs and low CIGs. LBX/IAH both at MVFR
with CIGs. All other sites at VFR this afternoon. Expect SHRA/TSRA
to begin around 19/20Z and continue through around 02Z. Some
thunderstorms could produce large hail with the potential for
significant hail (2"+). Damaging winds will also be possible in
and in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Activity will taper off
closer to midnight from west to east. Chance of rain will return
Saturday morning into the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Light to moderate onshore winds continue well into the weekend
ahead of the passage of a cold front on Sunday. Wind speeds will
occasionally approach caution thresholds at times, and periods of
fog development are also possible prior to the frontal passage.
Scattered showers and storms will develop on Friday, and become
more widespread on Saturday and Sunday as the front slowly
advances towards the coast. By late Sunday, the front will advance
offshore with moderate to strong northeast winds developing behind
its passage. This will likely require a Small Craft Advisory
before conditions begin to improve by late Monday/early Tuesday.

Cady

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Here are the daily rainfall records (inches/year)for Friday (3/15),
Saturday (3/16) and Sunday (3/17).

  College Station  Houston  Houston Hobby  Galveston    Palacios

Fri: 2.81/1969   2.06/1974    1.66/1944    1.88/1896   5.15/1993
Sat: 1.84/1979   2.83/1896    2.28/1998    2.71/1944   2.65/1944
Sun: 1.48/1988   2.57/1957    5.00/1957    2.96/1957   1.83/1997

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  80  64  72  61 /  50  30  80  60
Houston (IAH)			  83  67  75  64 /  50  40  50  60
Galveston (GLS)			  74  65  71  64 /  30  20  40  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Cady

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
209 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

TXZ195-197-211-152000-
Washington TX-Burleson TX-Austin TX-
209 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN AUSTIN...
SOUTHEASTERN BURLESON AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 209 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Round Top, or 11 miles northeast of La Grange, moving northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brenham, Shelby, Somerville, Burton, Lake Somerville Dam, Lake
Somerville State Park & Trailway, Carmine, Independence, and Quarry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southeastern Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3020 9674 3024 9674 3025 9672 3025 9669
      3030 9664 3030 9666 3049 9643 3019 9617
      2999 9659 3008 9663 3011 9663 3013 9665
      3015 9665 3016 9669 3015 9671 3014 9677
      3016 9679
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 236DEG 29KT 3005 9678

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

03

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
233 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

TXZ197-210>212-152000-
Washington TX-Waller TX-Colorado TX-Austin TX-
233 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO...
NORTHERN AUSTIN...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND WEST CENTRAL WALLER
COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 233 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Industry, or 15 miles north of Columbus, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brenham, Bellville, Industry, New Ulm, and Frelsburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southeastern Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2996 9657 2999 9659 3027 9626 3003 9607
      2979 9654 2990 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 230DEG 25KT 2992 9653

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

03

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
252 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

TXZ226-227-152015-
Wharton TX-Fort Bend TX-
252 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WHARTON AND
SOUTHWESTERN FORT BEND COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM CDT...

At 251 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wharton, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wharton, East Bernard, Kendleton, and Hungerford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southeastern Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2928 9619 2938 9625 2954 9607 2945 9589
      2930 9588
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 246DEG 17KT 2936 9603

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Adams

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
259 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

TXZ197-211-212-152030-
Washington TX-Waller TX-Austin TX-
259 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN AUSTIN...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN WALLER COUNTIES THROUGH 330
PM CDT...

At 259 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shelby, or 12 miles west of Brenham, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brenham, Shelby, and Burton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southeastern Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3034 9625 3014 9610 3001 9639 3002 9661
      3005 9662 3007 9662 3008 9663 3011 9663
      3013 9665 3015 9665
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 250DEG 31KT 3010 9659

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

03

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
308 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

TXZ226-227-152045-
Wharton TX-Fort Bend TX-
308 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WHARTON AND
SOUTHWESTERN FORT BEND COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

At 308 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Beasley, or 7 miles southwest of Rosenberg, moving northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southwestern Sugar Land, Rosenberg, Richmond, Needville, East
Bernard, Pleak, Fairchilds, Beasley, Kendleton, Greatwood, Cumings,
New Territory, and Hungerford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southeastern Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2934 9609 2950 9617 2959 9586 2958 9566
      2942 9574
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 242DEG 26KT 2947 9590

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Adams

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
322 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     Hail             Bellville               29.95N 96.26W
03/15/2024  M1.75 inch       Austin             TX   Public

            Golf Ball sized hail in Bellville.

&&