Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
544 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024

-Widespread moderate to heavy rain expected tonight with a couple of
systems moving across the region
-Flood Watch has been extended and expanded to include much of SE TX
through Wednesday morning

While parts of the area are getting a bit of a break from all the
rain/storms, activity is starting to organize across the northern
third of the CWA at this time...generally along a weak stationary
surface boundary. These showers/storms will continue through this
evening and with PWs of 1.5-1.8 inches and favorable upper jet dy-
namics, widespread rainfall totals should average from 2-4 inches
but higher amounts (with some guidance up to/over 5 inches?) with
training possible. As this activity winds down/moves out to the E
and NE during the overnight hours, another round of showers/thund-
erstorms will be developing as the next shortwave approaches from
the SW. This system along with a lightly higher surge of moisture
(PWs of 1.8-1.9 inches) will help trigger showers/isolated storms
across areas along and south of the I-10 corridor during the over-
night hours through Weds morning. Current hi-res solutions appear
to be trending a bit faster with these rains moving out to the E.
As such, have extended/expanded the Flood Watch to include almost
all of SE TX for tonight through Weds morning.

Some brief drying is possible by early Weds afternoon, but clouds
will be sticking around. As for temperatures, tonight's are going
to remain on the warm side: ranging from the mid to upper 50s for
the northern counties...lower 60s central and south. Temperatures
for tomorrow/tomorrow night will run a bit cooler (via the rains/
clouds) with highs in the 60s and lows in the 50s. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024

Shallow, weak front should be nudging off the coast early Thursday
morning taking the bulk of the precip shield off the coast with just
some lingering iso-sct shra south of I-10 during the day.

With the western upper trof making eastward advancement and
developing lee side surface cyclogenesis, look for the Gulf boundary
to begin moving back to the coast bringing a return of moisture and
scattered showers during the day Fri. By Friday night, the next
front and associated round of rainfall is forecast to push through
the region overnight and off the coast before sunrise.

With the passage of the front and a dry nwly flow setting up aloft,
expect the remainder of the weekend and early next week to be dry &
seasonable. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 539 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024

Messy forecast continues with this forecast package. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue this evening. A brief lull may occur
later this evening before another round of moderate to heavy
showers and storms moves in overnight. Ongoing sea fog causing
vsby issues at GLS. IFR/LIFR conditions expected to persist
area wide through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024

Showers and thunderstorms moving into the area after midnight
should allow for somewhat improved visibilites in fog late. In
the meantime, where precipitation is not falling...dense sea fog
can be anticipated into Wednesday. Otherwise, light onshore winds
are in place but a lingering 6ft swell offshore still warrants the
caution flags in the 20-60nm group overnight.

Although a weak front may nudge the fog a ways off the coast
Wednesday night into Thursday, it should return Thursday night and
and remain a possibility until a stronger front moves in Friday
night. Moderate offshore winds and drier conditions are
anticipated behind this front. 47

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024

Potential for localized heavy rainfall overnight with some rain
rates a bit higher than we've seen the past couple days a
possibility. Ground is saturated and more prone to runoff
responses. Will need to keep a closer eye on things tonight and
Wednesday. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  57  61  50  66 /  80  90  40  10
Houston (IAH)			  62  67  56  69 /  90  90  50  20
Galveston (GLS)			  59  63  56  63 /  90  90  70  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-211>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

     High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ436>439.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for TXZ438-439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ335.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 3 AM CST Wednesday for
     GMZ370-375.

&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...47

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
647 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024

TXZ164-177>179-199-240130-
San Jacinto TX-Walker TX-Polk TX-Montgomery TX-Trinity TX-
647 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN TRINITY...
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO...WEST CENTRAL
POLK AND WALKER COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM CST...

At 646 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
northeastern Huntsville, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Huntsville, Livingston, Trinity, Onalaska, Groveton, New Waverly,
Point Blank, Riverside, Sebastopol, Huntsville State Park, northern
West Livingston, Crabbs Prairie, and Oakhurst.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3041 9567 3080 9577 3116 9518 3077 9486
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 237DEG 32KT 3071 9553

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Fowler

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