Snow Squall Warning 2, NWS Gray, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1033 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move through the region this afternoon
with snow squalls and gusty winds. Thereafter, fair weather is
expected Monday before a storm moving to the south of New
England potentially brings some snow on Tuesday. Mainly dry
weather then follows through the middle to end of the week with
seasonably cold temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM Update...No noteworthy changes were made to the
forecast. The HRRR continues to show good run to run continuity
in a line of heavy snow showers/squalls reaching the CT River
Valley from the west around 1-2 PM with this activity advancing
east through the afternoon and early evening. The 12Z NAMnest
is pretty well on board with this although it does show
potential for more snow showers across the north a little
earlier.

700 AM Update...Very little change to the forecast. We did issue
a special weather statement to bring awareness to the potential
for some intense squalls this afternoon.

Previously...

A strong short wave trough coupled with a strong PV anomaly
will move across the forecast area this afternoon and early
evening with an attendant sharp cold front.

Gusty winds will continue for most of the day as temperatures
warm into the 20s in the mountains and mid to upper 30s across
the far south and portions of the coast. Thereafter, the cold
front approaches from the west. The setup is essentially what
one would see in the summer during a strong thunderstorm event
but just normalized for the cold temperatures of winter. Strong
lift associated with the PV anomaly and SFC cold front coupled
with low but positive CAPE values will set the stage for one or
more line(s) of squalls this afternoon with the capability of
producing 40 kt wind gusts and brief whiteout conditions. A few
rumbles of thunder will be possible given the extremely steep
low to mid level lapse rates.

Not everyone will experience a squall, but everyone is in play
at this point as the threat won't be relegated to the
mountains. Given expected SFC temps at or above freezing
downwind of the mountains, a flash freeze during or just after a
squall is definitely a possibility. A few snow squall warnings
may be needed despite it being a holiday weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The front moves offshore this evening ending the squall threat
by around 8 pm. Thereafter we are looking at a dry, cold, and
breezy post-frontal airmass into Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overview: The main theme of the extended portion of the forecast
will be for the return of near to even a little below normal
temperatures. While no major systems are currently anticipated,
there are a few opportunities for light snow.

Impacts: Cold temperatures combined with gusty winds will allow
windchills to fall into the single digits either side of zero a few
days/nights this upcoming week. Periods of snow showers may result
in locally slippery travel conditions on Tuesday.

Forecast Details: Much of the extended will be marked by closed low
pressure stalled near Hudson Bay as downstream blocking remains
firmly in control over the Atlantic within a -NAO and -PNA.
Starting on Monday night, high pressure will move offshore to
our south. Clouds will increase through the night with low
temperatures into the single digits across the north to teens
elsewhere. Weak low pressure will then move offshore of the
Carolinas on Tuesday before passing offshore Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Latest ensemble and deterministic based
guidance continues to indicate this system will be too far east
to bring significant snowfall to the region but it will likely
still bring periods of light snow during the day. Temperature
profiles support all snow with generally less than a quarter
inch of QPF. Snow-to-liquid ratios will likely be >10:1 though
and therefore despite low QPF, several inches of snow remains
possible. This could result in locally slippery travel as
daytime highs only reach the 20s to near 30 degrees from north
to south.

Skies will gradually clear Tuesday night with cold overnight
temperatures of near zero across the north to the single digits
and low teens south. Shortwave ridging looks to then build over
the area on Wednesday, allowing for partly cloudy skies and
highs into the teens and 20s. Mainly dry conditions will then
continue on Wednesday night through Thursday with lows into the
single digits and teens Wednesday night and highs into the teens
and 20s Thursday. There are then some indications that some
light snow is possible on Friday into part of Saturday as a weak
system crosses near the region but there remains significant
uncertainty at this time range.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Gusty southwest winds of around 30 kt are
expected today. Conditions will be primarily VFR, but a round
of snow showers and squalls is expected this afternoon with
locally very poor visibilities and wind gusts up to 40 knots.Wind
gusts of 20-30 kt look to continue into Sunday before easing
through the overnight hours with VFR conditions into Monday.

Long Term....Mainly VFR conditions will dominate the extended
portion of the forecast. The exception may be during the day on
Tuesday as periods of -SN may result in restrictions. Winds will
generally be out of the west with gusts nearing 25 kts at times,
especially during the daytime hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Gale conditions are expected to continue across
the waters through tonight, especially across the outer waters.
Winds and seas subside Monday.

Long Term...Northwesterly winds on Tuesday night may approach
low end gale force behind departing low pressure to our east.
Westerly wind gusts may then approach 25 kts on Thursday with
seas of 3-5 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Still running with a 1 foot surge early this morning, but that
is expected to gradually decrease today with gusty offshore
winds continuing. Nevertheless, some nuisance minor flooding
will be possible around the time of 1 pm high tide today.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ150>154.

&&

NEAR TERM...Combs/Ekster
SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...Tubbs

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