Wind Advisory 6, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Elbert County, GA, Franklin County, GA, Habersham County, GA, Hart County, GA, Rabun County, GA, Stephens County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Union County, NC, Abbeville County, SC, Anderson County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Greenville County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Oconee County, SC, Pickens County, SC, Spartanburg County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
400 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are in store today, before a
cold front crosses the area tonight. Dry air returns Tuesday and
temperatures warm through the end of the work week. A moist frontal
system may affect the area this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 341 am EST Monday: The better convection remains tied to
the effective warm frontal boundary running closer to I-20 in
AL/n central GA at this hour, but the radar trend has shown the
precip shield finally making some northward progress. Precip probs
gradually ramp upward farther northward over the next several
hours. Confidence remains poor that we will get enough convection
and higher rainfall rates to cause any flooding in the very near
term, given the poor verification of our QPF thus far, although
the lower Piedmont/Lakelands might see some rain start to pile up
through daybreak. Meanwhile, the most-unstable CAPE remains to the
south along I-20, with the GSP forecast area essentially stable,
thus our chances for severe weather are nil at this time.

Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your perspective), some
forecasts don't quite work out the way we plan. Precip riding over
a warm-frontal boundary has continually cooled the air mass along
the boundary and effectively established an instability gradient
to our south, while preventing it from lifting northward. There
does not appear to be a mechanism to easily move this effective
warm front boundary into the fcst area into the afternoon. The
strengthening southerly flow will only serve to force more precip
over northeast GA and upstate SC, which will continue to reinforce
the boundary to the south. The lack of instability will put a
serious dent in our severe weather chances for the better part
of the day, thus the downgrade/removal of the Slight Risk in the
new Day 1 Outlook. At the same time, the lack of deep convective
elements will also keep the best precip rates just out of reach
to the south. The new QPF has an axis of heavier rain along I-20
and barely enough across northeast GA and Upstate SC to raise
concern. The Flood Watch certainly doesn't need to be expanded and
is probably too large already, but won't be dropped or cut back
yet as the precip has finally started moving northward over the
Watch area. The most prudent course of action is just to let it
ride for now, as there is still the chance that a longer duration
rain could cause some flooding problems in some spots. Otherwise,
the overall synoptic weather situation hasn't changed much. Strong
mid/upper forcing will spread across the region today as an upper
low moves northeast from the MS Valley to the Cumberland Plateau
through this evening. This will lift a deepening sfc low from srn MS
this morning to eastern KY this evening. The day will be wet. Precip
will start to lift out to the northeast this evening. The actual
cold front will sweep in from the west in the early evening, and
there is a remote chance that a few strong storms could form on
the boundary if a narrow ribbon of instability develops, thus the
Marginal Risk that was kept across the region.

The cold front sweeps eastward by late evening and temps
will drop sharply, bringing some big changes over the mtns in
particular. Temps plummet after midnight and should be cold
enough to change any leftover precip to snow showers near the TN
border. Guidance shows a band of precip wrapping around the back
side of the departing upper low courtesy of the cold conveyor belt,
and this precip band could knick the TN border region as the flow
also shifts around decisively to the NW. This could result in a
period of snow showers in the upslope areas near the TN border,
with the potential for an inch or three in the usual spots. The
extent and amount of snow looks sub-advisory at this time.

The bigger problem looks to be the strong pressure gradient on
the back side of the departing low. Guidance shows a surge of
wind at 850 mb after midnight from the NW. Several of the CAMs
have wind gusts on the order of 50kt or greater in the downslope
areas along the Blue Ridge Escarpment starting around 09Z as the
cold advection really kicks in. This has been seen in several
successive runs. With the timing of onset being before sunrise
Tuesday, the best course of action appears to be to raise a High
Wind Warning already with this package near the Escarpment over
the nrn Foothills/nrn mountains, and a Wind Advisory farther south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Monday...A low level cyclone continues to push
northeast of the area early Tue with wrap around moisture waning
thru the morning hours. Not expecting much additional snowfall,
likely arnd a half inch, across the wrn NC mtns and most of that
will occur along the TN/NC spine. Another issue will be winds. The
NBM continues as a higher outlier compared to other op guidance and
it could be overdone a little with overall speeds. Still think gusts
arnd warning level are possible abv 5 Kft as the p/grad remains
tight thru noon. Most winds below 5 Kft will also remain in the
advisory range across the NC mtns and begin to relax during the
afternoon. Not a lot of llvl CAA with the incoming high and temps
wont drop too much from Mon/s values, likely reaching near normal
levels across the FA Tue. A warm up Wed, esp outside the mtns in
downsloping flow while thickness values also rise thru the period.
Expect low sfc td/s into the mid to upper 20s, which along with sfc-
layer mixing will limit a dense fog threat each morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 155 AM Monday...The latest guidance is still in good agreement
with flat upper ridging persisting across the area thru Fri, before a
split flow regime affects the SE region over the weekend. A broad
sfc high will engulf and cross the area thru Thu as a weak trof
associated with a clipper system brings llvl moisture to the NC mtns
Fri. This could produce a period of mtn snow showers early Sat
before a nrn stream frontal system possibly brings a better chance
of snow Sat night into Sun. Not too confident on the secondary shot
of precip or wintry weather as the GFS is a moist outlier and has a
distinctly different sfc pattern than the other op models, which
have shown better run-to-run consistency. Much to figure out with
this system so low to mid-chance PoPs seem okay for now. Above
normal max temps by 8 degrees or so Thu and Fri, then a slight cool
down toward normal levels by Sun seems reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: An ill-behaved weather system means
low confidence as model guidance continues to struggle with the
ongoing trends. Observations at issuance time run the spectrum of
flight categories across the region, with variable cig/vis in many
locations. Challenging, indeed. Will play it pessimistic and bring
most terminals to IFR in short order and then down to LIFR in the
pre-dawn hours as the precip should finally spread north across the
region. Wind will be mainly SE to SW. Conditions look rough thru the
day as the main moisture plume moves over the region with widespread
IFR/LIFR restrictions persisting in steady precip, but still,
occasional MVFR/VFR holes will not be a surprise. The main cold
front looks like it will move in from the west in the early evening,
still with some indication of thunderstorm activity possible east
of the mtns. Will include a PROB30 for that threat. The front will
sweep out the precip, but low cloud restrictions will remain into
the overnight and early Tuesday until downslope can strengthen.

Outlook: Drying will arrive behind the front Monday night into
Tuesday. Windy to very windy conditions will develop behind the
front, especially over western NC. Dry high pressure is then
expected the rest of the week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-
     029.
NC...Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ051-052-058-059-
     062>065-068>072-082-507>510.
SC...Flood Watch through this evening for SCZ008>014-019-101>109.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1253 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

NCZ033-048>050-053-501-503-505-130600-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Caldwell Mountains-
Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
1253 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Rounds of heavy rainfall are expected Monday, which could lead to
minor flooding of streams and locations with poor drainage. Also, a
few storms capable of producing damaging winds will be possible
Monday afternoon.

In addition, very gusty winds are expected to develop Monday night
into Tuesday. Winds could gust over 50 mph in areas along and near
the Blue Ridge escarpment.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ065-507-509-130600-
Henderson-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
1253 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Very gusty winds are expected to develop Monday night into Tuesday.
Winds could gust over 50 mph in areas along and near the Blue Ridge
escarpment.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-502-504-506-130600-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-
Eastern McDowell-
1253 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Rounds of heavy rainfall are expected Monday evening, which could
lead to minor flooding of streams and locations with poor drainage.
Also, a few storms capable of producing damaging winds will be
possible Monday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ068>072-082-508-510-130600-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
1253 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

A few strong to severe storms will be capable of producing damaging
winds and a brief, weak tornado or two Monday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-130600-
Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-
1253 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop from the
southwest overnight. Cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds will
be the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

A few strong to severe storms will be capable of producing damaging
winds Monday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-130600-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Cherokee-York-Anderson-
Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
1253 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Scattered thunderstorms may move in from southwest overnight. Cloud
to ground lightning and gusty winds will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the day Monday.
The greatest threat will be damaging winds. However, a couple of
brief tornadoes will also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Krentz