Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
244 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will stall across the Piedmont of the Carolinas
tonight and linger through Sunday. The boundary should continue
to provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms, while cooling
temperatures back closer to average. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression
Four is forecast to track into the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight
and will drift north toward the Florida Gulf Coast on Sunday. The
eventual track and timing of this system will determine our weather
through the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 147 PM EDT Saturday: It's a beautiful Saturday across the
forecast area.  Temperatures are in the upper 80s in most places,
and an extensive cu field has developed east of the NC mountains.
A few showers have already broken out over the Blue Ridge, as
a vigorous upper trough escapes the upper Ohio Valley and heads
toward Appalachia.  A surface front is now analyzed along or just
east of the NC Blue Ridge Escarpment, which looks reasonable based
on mesoanalysis data and CAM guidance.

This boundary will provide triggering for this afternoon's
convective prospects, putting the Piedmont and Upstate zones
most under the gun for active weather later.  Guidance indicates
that a plume of 2500+ J/kg sbCAPE will be in place across the
eastern third of the forecast area over the next few hours as
convection really fires up, in an environment already juiced up
with 25kts of deep shear.  As described in previous discussions,
the intrusion of dry air aloft from the western side of the front
will promote an increase in DCAPE, which is already analyzed at
800-900 J/kg over I- 77, and is only progged to increase as the
afternoon wears on, attaining a max value of 1100-1200 J/kg over
the eastern zones...more than enough to justify the Marginal/Slight
Risk for Severe Weather per SPC.  Heavy rain remains somewhat
of a concern, as steering flow will be out of the SSW, nearly
parallel to the orientation of the stalling frontal boundary.
Having said that, the dry air intrusion aloft will markedly lower
PWs compared to previous days...with even the higher end of the
12z HREF distribution only calling for 1.8-1.9".  This along
with the highly-localized nature of any hydro issues that develop
only reinforces the earlier decision to forego a Flood Watch for
this evening.  More to the point, 3- and 6-hour probability-matched
mean QPF forecasts from the morning ensembles just can't square up
with FFGs...so flood risk should remain limited.  High temperatures
will barely make it to 90 this afternoon for most locations.

Tonight, convection may linger well past sunset.  The latest
HRRR, FV3, and NSSL-WRF all depict a second wave of showers and
thunderstorms spinning up over the NC Piedmont around sundown and
pushing east of I-77 through midnight.  Once whatever festering
convection lets up, it'll be a mostly-quiet night.  Lows will
fall into the lower 70s or even 60s in some spots across the
NC Foothills and of course the mountains, and another round of
mountain valley fog and low stratus will develop before sunrise.
Some locations outside the mountains which wind up receiving a lot
of rain this afternoon may get patchy fog in the morning, too.
Tomorrow's convection remains somewhat of a question mark...as
although earlier forecasts indicated decent convective coverage,
the latest cycle of hi-res guidance has come in with a more
diffuse remnant frontal boundary than depicted prior, resulting
in less initiation Sunday afternoon and lower overall coverage.
What storms do develop will have another DCAPE-rich environment
to work with, and so will need to be watched closely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Saturday: The short term forecast is really up in the
air, thanks to current TD 4. The latest forecast is significantly
slower with what is expected to be TS Debby. By 12z Monday, the
center is expected to be near the Big Bend area of FL, but guidance
already diverging on that, with NAM and Canadian trending west
with landfall near Apalachicola. From there, the steering flow in
the upper levels becomes weak, and Debby will slow down somewhere
over southern GA on Monday, with a general drift to the east,
possibly reaching the GA coastal waters early Tuesday. With this
track, our forecast area may actually see fairly quiet weather,
as subsidence overspreads north of the tropical circulation. With
that said, there are ensemble members that drift the low further
north before stalling, and we could see at least peripheral rain
bands from the system. Plus a stalled frontal boundary (though
washing out) may be enough to focus some deep convection, along
with the usual terrain-induced activity. Will go with the NBM PoPs
for now, but they may be overdone, given the slower motion of the
approaching tropical system. Temps will be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM Saturday: The entire medium range forecast continues
to be highly uncertain, as models are now trending toward a stalled
tropical system somewhere near coastal SC, with a possible drift
inland mid to late in the week. This could result in a prolonged
period of rain working into the forecast area from SE to NW. Even
if Debby ends up being a hurricane at its peak intensity, the
expected drift across northern FL and southern GA should weaken it,
and so the wind threat should be low, making excessive rainfall
the biggest threat. With that said, this is a relatively new trend
in the guidance, so will continue to stick close to the national
blend of models for the PoPs. The NBM has already trended higher in
PoPs and lower in max temps, which is to be expected if a remnant
tropical system ends up close to the area. Once guidance seems
to lock into a solution and confidence increases, we may see some
large shifts in the forecast either way.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions at all the terminals
this afternoon except KHKY, where a pesky MVFR cloud deck has
lingered well into the day.  Some showers are already spinning
up over the NC-TN border, and are progged to move east through
the afternoon hours.  All the guidance depicts some version of
this activity shifting eastward through the evening hours...with
especially numerous coverage over the I-77 corridor east of a
diffuse frontal boundary.  Multiple rounds of convection may be a
concern, especially if the latest HRRR is to be believed, as it
maintains convection well past sundown.  By midnight, the show
should be over regardless, and the mountain terminals can expect
another round of hefty flight restrictions...with the statistical
guidance as well as the NBM hitting the mountain valleys pretty
hard with IFR to LIFR ceilings again before daybreak.  Additional
convection is possible on Sunday, but coverage should be much more
sparse compared to today, and initiation may be delayed...such
that mention didn't make it into any of the 18z TAFs.

Outlook: Drier conditions will return early next week before
an unsettled and very-low-confidence pattern arrives Tuesday
and beyond.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...MPR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
212 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

GAZ010-017-018-026-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-
509-SCZ101>105-041815-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-
Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
212 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the
mountains of western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area this afternoon
and evening. The main threats from any storm will be cloud-to-ground
lightning and torrential rainfall. A few of these storms may also
produce damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A tropical system may impact the western Carolinas and northeast
Georgia early next week. The track this system takes as it moves
northward will determine what impacts it may have on our area.
Check hurricanes.gov for the latest updates on this system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008-009-012>014-019-108-109-041815-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Cherokee-York-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-
Greenwood-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
212 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 592 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Piedmont North Carolina and
Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

In addition to the threat of severe thunderstorms, expected is torrential
rainfall that's likely to produce areas of nuisance flooding as well
as localized flash flooding. In particular, multiple storms may move
over the same location in succession, leading to a handful of hydro
issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A tropical system may impact the western Carolinas and northeast
Georgia early next week. The track this system takes as it moves
northward will determine what impacts it may have on our area.
Check hurricanes.gov for the latest updates on this system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ028-029-NCZ502-504-506-508-510-SCZ010-011-106-107-041815-
Hart-Elbert-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Anderson-Abbeville-
Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
212 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the area
this afternoon and evening. The main threats from any storm will be
cloud-to-ground lightning and torrential rainfall that's likely to
produce areas of nuisance flooding as well as localized flash
flooding. In particular, multiple storms may move over the same
location, leading to a handful of hydro issues. In addition, some of
these storms may also produce damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A tropical system may impact the western Carolinas and northeast
Georgia early next week. The track this system takes as it moves
northward will determine what impacts it may have on our area.
Check hurricanes.gov for the latest updates on this system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

MPR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
444 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NW Chester            34.72N 81.23W
08/03/2024                   Chester            SC   Utility Company

            Tree down across power lines.

&&

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
453 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

NCZ053-065-032145-
Buncombe NC-Henderson NC-
453 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN HENDERSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

At 453 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Hendersonville, or near Mills River. This storm
was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Arden, Mills River, Fletcher, Mountain Home, Bat Cave, Asheville
Airport, Skyland, B.R. Parkway-Mount Pisgah To The Nc Arboretum,
Fairview In Buncombe County, and B.R. Parkway-Nc Arboretum To East
Asheville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3536 8268 3548 8266 3552 8229 3538 8227
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 284DEG 4KT 3541 8262

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
455 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

NCZ035-036-032145-
Iredell NC-Alexander NC-
455 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ALEXANDER AND NORTH CENTRAL
IREDELL COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

At 455 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles west of Taylorsville, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Taylorsville, Love Valley, Hiddenite, Little River In Alexander
County, Vashti, Millersville, and Ellendale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
the Piedmont of North Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3598 8090 3583 8120 3590 8134 3603 8123
      3604 8119 3603 8117 3604 8114 3604 8111
      3603 8110 3603 8107 3606 8098
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 225DEG 14KT 3591 8125

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
520 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 WNW Taylorsville      35.94N 81.22W
08/03/2024                   Alexander          NC   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Picture of a tree down along 3 Forks Church
            Rd.

&&

TW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
521 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 S Taylorsville        35.90N 81.18W
08/03/2024                   Alexander          NC   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Tree down along NC 16 S.

&&

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
542 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

NCZ068-508-032215-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-
542 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD AND
CLEVELAND COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

At 542 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Shelby, or near Polkville, moving southeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Shelby, Forest City, Boiling Springs NC, Belwood, Lawndale, Patterson
Springs, Fallston, Polkville, Ellenboro, and Lattimore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
the Piedmont of North Carolina...and Upstate South Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3553 8151 3552 8151 3542 8146 3536 8141
      3533 8136 3531 8137 3530 8136 3528 8136
      3527 8134 3517 8164 3518 8177 3536 8189
      3557 8154
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 326DEG 19KT 3538 8167

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AR