Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
117 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
the weekend, with the best coverage most likely in the afternoons
and evenings.  Small chances of rain lingering overnight in the
North Carolina mountains.  Very hot and humid weather will continue
through Friday, but a weak cold front arriving this weekend will
drop temperatures to more seasonally normal hot weather while
providing better chances for rain Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1201 PM EDT Friday: No changes once again to a forecast with
temps and dewpoints on track through the morning.  Seeing some
scattered cu start to break out across the SC Upstate, signifying
that daytime heating is well underway and the atmosphere is
beginning to destabilize.  Height falls are already underway as a
potent upper low crosses central Indiana, and a cold front begins
to dip into the Tennessee Valley.  No changes were made to the Heat
Advisory, which is now underway for the southern tier of counties
in GSP's forecast area.

Otherwise...as the upper low continues its eastward march, the front
will push into the CWA today and will stall out just to our east
early Saturday. We can expect another active day convection-wise,
with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing
during the afternoon and lingering well into the late evening. The
environment will once again have plenty of sfc-based instability and
a decent amount of DCAPE. Bulk shear values still appear minimal,
however the cold front will likely be able to provide enough
low-level convergence to help organize storms in some sort of
linear fashion. As such, our entire CWA is under a Day 1 Marginal
Risk for severe thunderstorms today. The main threat still appears
to be damaging straight-line winds from storm outflows. Localized
flooding will also be a concern with any storms that train over
the same area(s). In addition, heat index values are expected
to reach Advisory criteria roughly south of I-85...hence the
aforementioned product.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 251 AM Friday: Saturday looks like it should be another
convectively-active day, what with the axis of a mid/upper trof
just to the west of the mtns and a sfc boundary strung out SW-to-NE
across the Piedmont of the Carolinas to provide an initiation
point. The better chances for precip and significant storms will
be along and on the east side of that boundary. The air mass east
of the mtns should be capable of hosting sfc-based CAPE in the
2500-3500 J/kg range with just enough shear (around 20-25 kts)
to help loosely organize storms in the afternoon. Have no problems
with the Marginal Risk on the new Day 2 from the SPC. The sfc-delta
theta-e, lapse rates, and boundary layer all support a wind damage
threat in the stronger storms. No problems, either, with the Day 2
Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC. Moisture pooling east of the
boundary should keep the precipitable water around 2 inches and the
warm cloud depth looks favorable as well. Chances look a bit better
just to our east, but threats would persist into the overnight over
the eastern zones. As for the temps, the trend is back toward normal
with plenty of cloud cover and numerous storms in the afternoon
where the heat risk is typically higher. Sunday could end up very
similar to Saturday if the mid/upper trof doesn't start to lift out,
and the guidance keeps the trof axis over the mtns overnight into
Sunday before resuming an eastward shift in the afternoon. Precip
probs will remain above climo and the marginal severe/excessive
rain threats will persist east of the mtns at least. Temps will
be at or maybe a degree under average for Sunday/Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 213 AM Friday: Of course, the forecast for the first half
of next week hinges almost entirely upon the track of what would
be a tropical cyclone affecting parts of the southeastern United
States. No point in getting fixated on any particular model track
at this point, or until we get more consistency in the various
solutions, but a reasonable expectation appears to be something off
to our southeast, though one must manage one's expectations. For
the bulk of the week, considerable differences are seen in the
operational model solutions, so confidence is too low to stray much
from the model blend and climo. Temps and precip probs will be close
to seasonal averages, with Wednesday perhaps the warmest of the
stretch, and Thursday having the greatest coverage of convective
precip. Not much else to say beyond that, other than stay tuned,
and expect changes.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection is already underway across the
NC mountains, with impacts imminent for the terminal at KAVL.
CAM guidance has struggled to resolve the evolution of today's
convection, with only the NSSL-WRF depicting this amount of coverage
so early in the afternoon.  General consensus, though, is that the
ongoing activity will coalesce into a loosely-organized line and
make tracks across the forecast area through mid- to late-evening.
It's possible there will be multiple rounds of convection,
especially across the NC Piedmont terminals, while the SC Upstate
terminals may wind up seeing less coverage.  Winds will stay out
of the SW through the period.  Overnight, another round of mountain
valley fog is likely (and perhaps even some lingering showers after
midnight, though confidence was too low for a mention in any of the
18z TAFs).  May see isolated patchy fog outside the mountains too,
at sites which receive ample rainfall this evening.  Tomorrow,
another round of convection is expected, but the latest guidance
suggests we'll only see isolated coverage in the western half of
the terminal forecast area...meaning KCLT has the best chance of
getting a direct hit from TSRA tomorrow.

Outlook: Daily shower and thunderstorm chances will continue thru
the weekend with drier conditions possibly returning early next
week. Fog/low stratus will be possible each morning, especially
in the mountain valleys and over areas that received heavy rain
the previous day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ029.
NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ071-072-082.
SC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ009-011>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JPT/MPR
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MPR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
451 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>070-501>510-SCZ008-010-101>109-030900-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-
Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Cherokee-Anderson-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-
Southern Spartanburg-
451 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will pose a risk
of cloud-to-ground lightning and flash flooding from torrential
rainfall. Some of these storms may also produce damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

More thunderstorms are expected over the weekend and could produce
isolated flooding and damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ029-NCZ071-072-082-SCZ009-011>014-019-030900-
Elbert-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-York-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-
Chester-Greenwood-
451 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

In addition, scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will
pose a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning and flash flooding from
torrential rainfall. Some of these storms may also produce damaging
wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

More thunderstorms are expected over the weekend and could produce
isolated flooding and damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
101 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

NCZ064-065-021730-
Transylvania NC-Henderson NC-
101 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA AND
NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM EDT...

At 101 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Brevard, or 4 miles northwest of Etowah, moving
east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mills River, Etowah, Forge Mountain, Horse Shoe, Penrose, and North
Transylvania.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3528 8271 3538 8272 3543 8255 3526 8255
TIME...MOT...LOC 1701Z 267DEG 9KT 3534 8266

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
150 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

NCZ064-SCZ102-103-021815-
Transylvania NC-Pickens Mountains SC-Greenville Mountains SC-
150 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE AND NORTH CENTRAL PICKENS COUNTIES THROUGH
215 PM EDT...

At 149 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Brevard, or 4 miles southeast of Rosman, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Caesars Head State Park, Jones Gap State Park, Table Rock State Park,
Sassafras Mountain, Rocky Bottom, and Cedar Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3502 8276 3507 8285 3515 8265 3512 8258
TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 212DEG 10KT 3509 8279

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
159 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

NCZ065-021830-
Henderson NC-
159 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY THROUGH
230 PM EDT...

At 159 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hendersonville, or near Mountain Home, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hendersonville, Mountain Home, Laurel Park, and Dana.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3531 8248 3537 8257 3543 8246 3534 8235
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 246DEG 5KT 3535 8249

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
206 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0153 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNE Nebo              35.73N 81.92W
08/02/2024                   McDowell           NC   911 Call Center

            Tree and power lines down on Wildlife Rd at
            NC 126.

&&

TW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
219 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 ENE Nebo              35.74N 81.87W
08/02/2024                   Burke              NC   911 Call Center

            Tree down on Benfields Landing Rd at Holiday
            Shores Ave.

&&

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
221 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

NCZ053-505-507-021900-
Buncombe NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-
221 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

At 221 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Downtown Asheville, or near Swannanoa, moving east at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Downtown Asheville, East Asheville, West Asheville, North Asheville,
Black Mountain, Swannanoa, Fairview In Buncombe County, Old Fort,
Chimney Rock State Park, and B.R. Parkway-Nc Arboretum To East
Asheville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3568 8215 3544 8222 3546 8227 3547 8227
      3550 8233 3549 8235 3549 8236 3548 8237
      3556 8262 3573 8249
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 279DEG 14KT 3562 8237

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AR