Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
212 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through
this morning, with severe storms expected. The cold front will push
east Thursday night into early Friday morning allowing for drier
conditions. Another system approaching out of the south may bring
shower and thunderstorm chances back to the region on Friday. Drier
conditions and below normal temperatures return for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Thursday: The Tornado Watch was expanded east to
include the rest of the SC Upstate and remains in effect through 4AM
EDT. A strong line of showers and thunderstorms continues pushing
southeastward across the forecast area this morning. Severe storms
are mainly noted along the southern portion of the line (NE GA and
SC Upstate), with strong storms noted over the northern portion of
the line (NC Piedmont). The main hazards with any severe storms will
be damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. A few
Flood Advisories were also issued this morning due to the heavy
rainfall associated with these storms. Increased of PoPs and PoTs to
account for widespread thunderstorm activity this morning, otherwise
no major changes were needed.

The air mass east of the Blue Ridge for the most part did not
recover from this afternoon, and now only shows >500 J/kg at best,
which will keep most of the activity in check. The main concern is
the area from the SW mountains down across northeast GA and the
Savannah River basin. However, enough effective shear and low level
shear remain in place, allowing storms to maintain supercell
characteristics. All threats are in play across this area, so SPC
issued a Tornado Watch across NE GA and the SC Upstate. This
activity will traverse the fcst area thru the early morning hours.
Based PoPs off the HRRR as the model has had a good and consistent
handle on activity the few several hours. Another round of showers
and thunderstorms may come in behind this one, but the severity will
be even more restricted toward daybreak as the atmosphere will
likely be worked over.

Otherwise...for Thursday...not quite as warm but still mid 80s in
the Piedmont. Slight Risk in place on Thursday but that's as the
convection slips south in the morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Wednesday: For the Thursday night period, the 12z
HREF and CAM consensus depicts just very limited and isolated deep
convection lingering from whatever daytime activity redevelops,
along with a smattering, but again limited response into the night
and mainly confined to the mountains.  Not unexpectedly, the pattern
atop the SE CONUS remains dynamic into Friday as energy rounding the
base of the upper trough will finally be again to shove lingering
sfc frontal zone downstream of the cwfa.  But before it does, we
will be wary for the threat for tstm encroachment and redevelopment,
along the front itself, and in addition, MCS/bowing cluster moving
in from Georgia.  Sensible weather will feature a shotgun mid-chance
pop for Friday with isolated svr storms possible mainly SE of I-85.
Will plan on overspreading the region with deep layered dry air
within the broad downward vertical motion behind the departing s/wv
axis Friday night.  Expecting to be under a well mixed and more
seasonable airmass within the deep cyclonic flow on Saturday
featuring maximum temperatures close to climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1252 am EDT Thursday: The rest of the upcoming weekend
looks like it should be quiet, with a mid/upper ridge axis to our
west supporting weak sfc high pressure on Sunday. Temps should
be right around normal into Monday. The ridge axis moves overhead
early Monday and then things start to go downhill. The next system
moving over the Plains on Monday will begin to spread moisture back
in from the southwest by late in the day, although the models do
not agree on when precip might develop up from the southwest. Be
that as it may, the pattern favors a quick moisture return with
sfc high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast, so if precip doesn't
develop by sunset on Monday, it will overnight. The rest of the
early half of the week look busy again as the upper system slowly
approaches then moves past Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Precip
probs climb up into the Likely range, but we have removed the
categorical for the time being. Temps will stay on the cool side
on Tuesday owing to extensive cloudiness and precip. We should
get another brief break in the action in the wake of this system,
probably on Wednesday, but afterward we remain in a busy looking
part of the flow with perhaps another upper feature moving in by
the end of the period. Temps could pop back up about five degrees
above normal on Thursday, but there is much uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Widespread SHRA and TSRA are tracking over
the terminals this morning leading to mainly LIFR to MVFR
restrictions. With the strongest activity expected to continue
through the next few hours, went with TEMPOs for TSRA from 06Z-10Z
for all terminals. Strong, gusty winds can be expected within
stronger thunderstorms. From 10Z-15Z have SHRA with a PROB30 for
TSRA as thunder should become more isolated once the main line of
activity pushes east. Should see drier conditions develop by the
late morning to early afternoon, which should allow restrictions to
lift across the terminals. Wind direction will generally be variable
through daybreak with shower and thunderstorm activity around, but
should eventually pick up out of the SW around sunrise. Winds will
remain SW through this afternoon before turning WNW across the mtns
and WSW east of the mtns this evening into tonight. Low-end gusts
are expected to develop this afternoon as a cold front track over
the western Carolinas. Dry conditions should linger through tonight.

Outlook: A system lifting out of the south my increase shower
and thunderstorm chances again on Friday, but confidence on this
remains low. Drier conditions can be expected this weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR/PM
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
144 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-100545-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-
Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
144 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the foothills and western
Piedmont of North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Another round of thunderstorms will move across the western
Carolinas late tonight into early Thursday morning, but it remains to
be seen if the atmosphere can recover enough by then to allow for
more severe weather. Some of the storms could produce damaging wind
gusts, small hail, frequent cloud- to- ground lightning, and
torrential rainfall. One or two storms could become severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The threat for strong to damaging wind gusts and localized flash
flooding will continue into Thursday morning. Scattered storms could
redevelop Thursday afternoon, potentially posing another threat of
isolated severe weather and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-SCZ008>014-019-
101>109-100545-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
144 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

...TORNADO WATCH 214 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The threat for strong to damaging wind gusts and localized flash
flooding will continue into Thursday morning. Scattered storms could
redevelop Thursday afternoon, potentially posing another threat of
isolated severe weather and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-048>050-053-065-501-503-505-507-509-100545-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-
144 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

More thunderstorms will move across the central and northern
mountains of North Carolina late tonight into early Thursday
morning. Some of the storms will be severe with damaging wind gusts
and large hail. Any storm will produce frequent cloud- to- ground
lightning and torrential rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The threat for strong to damaging wind gusts and localized flash
flooding will continue into Thursday morning. Scattered storms could
redevelop Thursday afternoon, potentially posing another threat of
isolated severe weather and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1245 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

NCZ065-068-069-504-506>510-SCZ008-103-106-108-090530-
Cleveland NC-Lincoln NC-Greater Burke NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-
Eastern McDowell NC-Eastern Polk NC-Greater Rutherford NC-
Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-Cherokee SC-Northern Spartanburg SC-
Central Greenville SC-Greenville Mountains SC-
1245 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL...
RUTHERFORD...SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON...POLK...WESTERN LINCOLN...
WESTERN CLEVELAND...SOUTHWESTERN BURKE...NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...
NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG AND NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES THROUGH
130 AM EDT...

At 1245 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Morganton to 7 miles
southeast of Hendersonville. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Forest City, Rutherfordton, Columbus, Morganton, Boiling Springs SC,
Spindale, Landrum, Wellford, Inman, and Tryon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3560 8151 3557 8153 3557 8147 3549 8135
      3542 8145 3541 8145 3494 8209 3523 8249
      3575 8175
TIME...MOT...LOC 0445Z 316DEG 28KT 3567 8178 3524 8238

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
118 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

NCZ035>037-056-057-069-502-504-090600-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-Iredell NC-Lincoln NC-Greater Burke NC-
Greater Caldwell NC-Alexander NC-Catawba NC-
118 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CATAWBA...WESTERN DAVIE...
ALEXANDER...IREDELL...SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL...WESTERN ROWAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN BURKE COUNTIES THROUGH 200 AM EDT...

At 117 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles southwest of Yadkinville to near
Newton to 9 miles northwest of Lincolnton. Movement was southeast at
40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hickory, Statesville, Newton, Mocksville, Taylorsville, Mooresville,
St. Stephens, Conover, Longview, and Bethlehem.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3604 8049 3551 8073 3551 8091 3548 8098
      3555 8096 3557 8167 3576 8144 3603 8121
      3603 8107 3606 8098
TIME...MOT...LOC 0517Z 296DEG 37KT 3603 8084 3567 8118 3557 8136

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
123 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

NCZ068>070-508-SCZ008-009-090600-
Greater Rutherford NC-Gaston NC-Cleveland NC-Lincoln NC-York SC-
Cherokee SC-
123 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...
LINCOLN...CLEVELAND...GASTON...NORTHWESTERN YORK AND NORTHEASTERN
CHEROKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 200 AM EDT...

At 123 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles northwest of Lincolnton to 7 miles east
of Shelby to 6 miles northwest of Gaffney. Movement was east at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gastonia, Shelby, Gaffney, Lincolnton, Kings Mountain, Cherryville,
Bessemer City, South Gastonia, Boiling Springs NC, and Dallas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3521 8106 3495 8154 3519 8185 3519 8197
      3523 8197 3540 8170 3556 8153 3555 8096
TIME...MOT...LOC 0523Z 291DEG 38KT 3551 8132 3532 8142 3515 8173

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
143 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

GAZ026-028-029-SCZ010-011-090630-
Elbert GA-Hart GA-Franklin GA-Abbeville SC-Anderson SC-
143 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN FRANKLIN...ELBERT...
HART...SOUTH CENTRAL ANDERSON AND SOUTHWESTERN ABBEVILLE COUNTIES
THROUGH 230 AM EDT...

At 143 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles southeast of Hartwell to 9 miles north
of Jefferson. Movement was southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Elberton, Hartwell, Carnesville, Royston, Calhoun Falls, Bowman,
Canon, Franklin Springs, Russell State Park, and Middleton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT for northeastern
Georgia...and Upstate South Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3399 8265 3397 8278 3401 8294 3403 8294
      3410 8304 3415 8306 3417 8310 3423 8308
      3427 8312 3424 8317 3424 8325 3426 8330
      3423 8335 3426 8334 3433 8339 3435 8339
      3439 8282 3407 8252 3401 8260 3396 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 0543Z 302DEG 38KT 3430 8278 3427 8365

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
150 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-090630-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-Gaston NC-Iredell NC-Cleveland NC-Lincoln NC-
Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-Catawba NC-
150 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CABARRUS...SOUTHEASTERN
CATAWBA...DAVIE...EASTERN LINCOLN...IREDELL...MECKLENBURG...SOUTHERN
CLEVELAND...ROWAN AND GASTON COUNTIES THROUGH 230 AM EDT...

At 150 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles southwest of Winston-Salem to 12 miles
southeast of Statesville to 4 miles southwest of Huntersville to 10
miles northwest of York. Movement was east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gastonia, Uptown Charlotte, Huntersville, Kannapolis, Downtown
Concord, Salisbury, Statesville, Shelby, Lincolnton, and Mocksville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT for Upstate South
Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8030 3519 8051 3521 8055 3501 8085
      3511 8093 3504 8104 3515 8105 3518 8177
      3540 8136 3605 8070 3606 8046 3601 8042
      3589 8037 3588 8042 3584 8039 3583 8049
      3574 8046 3571 8033 3568 8033 3551 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 0550Z 274DEG 47KT 3602 8040 3562 8078 3538 8090 3514
8131

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
200 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

SCZ008-009-013-014-108-109-090645-
York SC-Cherokee SC-Northern Spartanburg SC-Southern Spartanburg SC-
Union SC-Chester SC-
200 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CHESTER...YORK...
SPARTANBURG...CHEROKEE AND NORTHERN UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM
EDT...

At 200 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles southeast of Shelby to 7 miles south
of Gaffney to 11 miles southwest of Spartanburg. Movement was east at
40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Spartanburg, Gaffney, Union, York, Rock Hill, Tega Cay, Clover,
Boiling Springs SC, Newport, and Duncan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT for Upstate South
Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 8128 3458 8186 3465 8195 3488 8194
      3487 8223 3513 8205 3518 8174 3515 8104
      3511 8103 3509 8106 3506 8106 3504 8104
      3510 8093 3506 8090
TIME...MOT...LOC 0600Z 278DEG 33KT 3514 8140 3497 8168 3486 8210

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MOORE