Severe Thunderstorm Warning 252, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

341 
WWUS52 KGSP 301727
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
127 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

NCC099-113-301737-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0252.000000T0000Z-240830T1730Z/
Macon NC-Jackson NC-
127 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MACON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 130 PM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 8314 3507 8329 3513 8323 3514 8307
TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 211DEG 11KT 3516 8310 

$$

TW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
656 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions remain across the region through most of
the Labor Day Weekend. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
increase through Monday. Temperatures fall below normal by mid week
as a cold front moves south of the area and cooler high pressure
builds in.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM: Through today and tonight we will remain under
the influence of nebulous forcing, and wholesale expectations
aren't that much different from Thursday. The only clearly defined
feature is the upper ridge over the Southeast region, which itself
will slowly weaken as a cold front slowly lays out across the
mid-Mississippi Valley in association with a broad trough. There
is the matter of the backdoor front now located near the NC/VA
border, but the sfc high driving it southward soon will move
offshore and looks unlikely to push the front much farther south
from its current position.

CAM consensus had been for outflow boundary to congeal from
convection near the front and sag further into our area this
morning. Some northerly winds are seen as far south as KHKY, but
not entirely sure this is representative of outflow. Furthermore
short term progs continue to show the low-level northerly winds
mixing out by late morning, so not all that confident the boundary
will matter. 06z cycle CAMs backed off their depictions of storms
firing along a boundary.

Otherwise, weak flow implies ridgetop convergence will be a key
factor for initiation, once again similar to Thursday. Temps will
be somewhat cooler although still well above normal; dewpoints
will be similar if not a little higher; lower LCLs/CCLs may make
initiation easier. CAPE and DCAPE should be at or above the values
observed on Thursday, so we expect another day of pulse storms
posing a localized downburst risk, and new outflow boundaries
should be able to expand and initiate new storms.  Any moving
boundary will potentially kick off multiple pulse updrafts each
of which will potentially knock down a tree or two.  We end up
with likely PoPs over the mountains, chance range values for the
foothills and NW NC Piedmont, and a slight chance elsewhere. Min
temps again will be a few degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Friday: Synoptically, a strong ridge remains in place
out west through the period with a trough over the northern/eastern
portion of the CONUS. Over the southeast, broad and weak flow
dominates through the weekend. Southerly surface winds continue the
moisture advection into the region, keeping dewpoints in the low
70s. Despite general weak flow aloft, guidance does depict a few
shortwaves crossing the area, especially across the mountains,
Saturday and Sunday. This could lead to a few scattered showers or
thunderstorms. Given current modeled soundings, any convection that
does form on Saturday looks to be more pulse-like. High dCAPE and
modest lapse rates support short lived storms, with microburst
potential. A few areas could see heavy rainfall where these storms
develop Saturday afternoon and into the evening, with the mountains
having a higher chance (55%-65%) and 20%-45% elsewhere. By Sunday, a
weak frontal boundary approaches the NC mountains from the north.
Some pre-frontal showers and convection are possible Sunday and
Sunday night. Guidance keeps the front just to the north and doesn't
push southward until the next forecast period. Ahead of the front,
temperatures remain hot during the period, but a cool down is in
sight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 250 AM Friday: A pattern change is on the horizon for the long
term forecast. By Monday, a strong surface high amplifies out of
Canada and expands across the Midwest and into the northeast CONUS.
Guidance from the NBM shows the weak frontal boundary reaching the
mountains and eventually dropping south of the CWA with a slow
response to bringing drier air into the area. As the high amplifies
to the north, surface flow by Tuesday turns more NE, setting up a
potential CAD event that lasts through the end of the period. This
could cut-off rain potential as guidance depicts much drier air
streaming into the region and persisting with the strong lee
troughing. However, there is not enough confidence in guidance to
pinpoint where the front stalls and when the precip chances
diminish. Will continue to monitor. But, a strong signal in guidance
does indicate drier air from the north, relieving the region of
summertime temperatures and ushers in a highly anticipated break
from the heat. Monday looks to be the warmest day of the extended
period and gradually decreases through the week. NBM showing highs
in the upper 70s and low 80s persisting along with much lower
dewpoints.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Can't completely rule out IFR fog/stratus at
KAVL or KHKY until 13z, although most likely restrictions would be
very brief. Diurnal cumulus will develop at VFR level late morning
across the terminal area. Winds will show some variability thru the
period but primarily will favor S to SW today, with speeds light
enough to keep impacts small. Ridgetops expected to see SHRA/TSRA
by around 17-18z; prevailing SHRA at KAVL as a result. Whereas
some earlier guidance suggested convection would initiate along
a weak outflow boundary this aftn/evening, with the originating
storms having drifted toward the NC/VA coast overnight this now
seems unlikely. Thus mainly isolated or widely scattered SHRA/TSRA
will develop, so previous PROB30s have been retooled to TEMPOs
near diurnal peak heating. Sites that take a direct hit from
convection may be more likely to see fog tonight, but confidence
thereon remains low. Saw fit to mention just SCT stratus at KHKY
and KAVL late tonight with MVFR fog as a hint.

Outlook: Diurnally active convective weather is expected Sat
thru Mon. That means some brief restrictions around storms in the
afternoon/evening, then potential for fog development in the early
morning hours where it rained each day. Drier air may push in from
the north Tuesday, but some convective rain chances may linger.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...Wimberley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
747 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-311200-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
747 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and
evening. A few storms could become severe with damaging winds and
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
928 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SE Easley             34.82N 82.58W
08/29/2024                   Pickens            SC   Fire Dept/Rescue

            A few trees and power lines were blown down.
            Time was estimated.

&&

DEO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1233 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

GAZ010-301700-
Rabun GA-
1233 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
IMPACT NORTHEASTERN RABUN COUNTY UNTIL 100 PM EDT...

At 1231 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with
frequent lightning AND HEAVY RAINFALL 6 miles northeast of Clayton,
or near Sky Valley, moving southwest at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Clayton, Mountain City, Dillard, Sky Valley, Black Rock Mountain
State Park, and Pine Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8353 3500 8317 3492 8317 3481 8334
TIME...MOT...LOC 1631Z 051DEG 10KT 3495 8332

SW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1241 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

NCZ052-064-301715-
Transylvania NC-Haywood NC-
1241 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEASTERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM EDT...

At 1241 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Brevard, or 4 miles north of Looking Glass. This storm
was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3526 8277 3531 8292 3540 8283 3538 8272
TIME...MOT...LOC 1641Z 205DEG 4KT 3536 8278

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1250 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

NCZ062-063-301715-
Southern Jackson NC-Macon NC-
1250 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MACON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM EDT...

At 1249 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles southeast of Franklin, or near Highlands, moving northeast at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Highlands, Cashiers, Lake Glenville, and Whiteside Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3525 8304 3506 8305 3505 8306 3505 8305
      3500 8312 3500 8319 3506 8330
TIME...MOT...LOC 1649Z 240DEG 8KT 3506 8314

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SW