Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
215 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier high pressure builds across our area tonight.  High
pressure remains over the East Coast through the weekend,
maintaining dry conditions and keeping temperatures a little cooler-
than-normal until Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

1. Shower and thunderstorm chances mostly in the mountains Monday.

2. Less humidity and cooler temps on Tuesday.

As of 155 PM Monday: The upper low to the north slides eastward
through the period as the amplifying trough continues to dig into
the south. Today, persistent NW flow keeps rain chances (30-60%)
once again along the TN/NC border and NC mountains due to lingering
moisture and upslope flow. Latest CAM guidance indicates an isolated
shower or thunderstorm east of the mountains this afternoon. Severe
weather isn't anticipated given a few factors. Weak to almost calm
surface winds and less moisture available. Flow aloft is also weak
and modeled profiles from the RAP have a modest inversion at the top
of the boundary layer. This would limit storm top heights from
tapping into the muCAPE and from reaching the freezing level. But, a
strong storm with gusty winds cannot be ruled out. Overnight, GFS
and EURO wipe out the remaining moisture from the mountains as drier
air filters in from the NW. This should cut off rain chances Tuesday
and into the next forecast period. Once the drier air arrives
tonight, dewpoints will also return to more comfortable levels,
reducing humidity. As for temperatures, warm today but cooler
Tuesday as highs stagger in the low 80s. Overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 210 PM EDT Monday: NW flow will remain in place aloft through
the period as an upper low slowly moves northeast across New
England. A short wave dropping through the flow may develop into an
upper low along the Gulf Coast Thursday. At the surface, high
pressure builds in from the north on Wednesday and remains in place
on Thursday. There will be some low level moisture moving into the
area on weak easterly flow. Guidance differs on whether there will
be enough forcing for showers to develop with this moisture. Given
the relatively stable atmosphere, will keep the forecast dry and
just show mountain clouds for now. Lows Tuesday night will be nearly
10 degrees below normal rising a couple of degrees Wednesday night.
Highs 5 to 10 degrees below normal Wednesday will rise a degree or
2 Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Monday: Quite and dry weather continue through the
period with a warming trend taking place. An upper ridge briefly
builds in through Saturday before an upper low develops over the
Northeast on Monday. This brings northerly flow across the area
Sunday and Monday between the low and a ridge over the central
CONUS. Surface high pressure remains over the area through the
period, keeping a generally dry air mass in place. Easterly flow
could allow some upslope moisture to move in from time to time
through Saturday, but this looks to be more supportive of clouds
than precip given the relatively stable air mass. Moisture moving in
on the developing northerly flow may help spur some convection,
especially Monday. However, this is uncertain given the model
differences, so left the forecast dry for now. Temps start out
around 5 degrees below normal on Friday then rise to around or
slightly above normal by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions prevail at most sites through
the end of the TAF period. This afternoon, a few showers and TSRA
possible at the mountain terminals and KCLT so a TEMPO at KCLT from
20z-24z remains. At KAVL, VCSH and KHKY VCTS prevail around 19z-24z.
Overnight, drier air moves in and decreased shower chances across
all terminals. There is a chance for some BR at KAVL in the early
morning hours, but confidence is low given the drier air and wind.
VFR conditions for Tuesday as rain and thunderstorms are not
anticipated at this time. Winds remain light to VRB at most sites
outside the mountains. A g15 cannot be ruled out at KAVL, but
confidence is low. Wind direction prevails N/NW and becomes more
N/NE Tuesday.

Outlook: VFR conditions through most of the week. Brief morning
restrictions in low stratus and/or BR possible in some mountain
valleys on most mornings.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CP

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