Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
605 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the area and push east across the
area on Sunday, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms both
afternoons.  Drier conditions will return next week with low rain
chances and below normal temperatures through at least Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
600 PM Update...Isolated tstms continue across the area with a few
becoming severe. Damaging outflows will be the main threat this
evening as there is a good indication of storms developing and
becoming semi-organized east of I-26 across the Upstate and the srn
Piedmont of NC.

For now, have kept PoP trends in line with the earlier convention,
but obviously, the situation will need to be monitored. Moisture and
weak NW flow could keep isolated SHRA along the TN border all night,
regardless of any convective trends. Fog and low clouds will be
possible, but convective debris could put a lid on that development.
Lows will be near to a few degrees above normal.

Mesoanalysis shows a very unstable air mass developing in the strong
heating with up to 30 kts of effective shear. dCAPE is also
increasing. Any storms that develop will have the potential to
become severe with damaging winds. However, large hail will also be
a threat given the shear and CAMs showing some storms with rotating
updrafts.

Short waves and a slow moving front will cross the area Sunday. CAMs
are showing better convective coverage to our east, but all show at
least isolated coverage over the area. Have gone with chc PoP
mountains and isolated elsewhere as the mountains will have moisture
and nwly flow to keep scattered showers around. A few severe storms
will again be possible, but again, better chance to our east with
the better coverage. Low end gusty winds are expected with a turn to
the W or NW through the day. Highs will be near normal mountains and
a few degrees above normal elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Saturday: A mid level trough axis will move across
the area Sunday night ushering in much drier and somewhat cooler
air. Some areas of showers/storms are expected to linger over the
mountains through Monday, dry conditions are expected in the
Piedmont.

High pressure will build into the area on Monday night and Tuesday.
This will push a very pleasant air mass into the forecast area.
Morning lows on Tuesday will be a few degrees below normal, with
highs on Tuesday normal to a few degrees below normal under mostly
sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday: The extended period will feature surface
high pressure across the region. This should lead to a period of
below normal highs and lows. Model guidance projects dewpoints in
the 50s to lower 60s for the entire week, which should be
delightful. Little to no rainfall is expected through this period.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection getting a later start as expected
with generally VFR Cu and WSW wind, WNW at KAVL. Could be some low
end gusts this afternoon and well. CAMs were in general agreement on
the later convection initiation but still dissipating during the
evening, so tailored the TEMPO TSRA to follow this trend. The latest
HRRR however, is now going with a second round of somewhat organized
convection from late evening to the early overnight. Will hold off
on forecasting this until a more consistent trend is established.
For now...show winds becoming light overnight with clearing skies.
Guidance also uncertain on any restrictions developing overnight and
convective debris could put a lid on this as well. For now, went
MVFR vsby at KAVL and KHKY, the most likely locations. That said,
there could be a round of MVFR cigs, but chance too low for TAFs.
WSW wind picks up with mixing and could become gusty on Sunday. NNW
wind at KAVL. Any convection will be during the afternoon.

Outlook: A cold front will track over the forecast area Sunday with
convection expected possibly into Monday. Drier conditions return
behind the front and continue through mid week. Patchy fog and low
stratus will be possible each morning in the mountain valleys and in
any locations that received heavy rainfall the day prior.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SCW
NEAR TERM...RWH/SBK
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1051 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-181500-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
1051 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
move east across the area into the evening. Some of these storms
could become severe with damaging winds the main threat, although
some large hail is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Sunday afternoon and
move east across the area into the evening. Some of these storms,
especially across the Piedmont, could become severe with damaging
winds and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
542 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     Hail             1 N Claremont           35.73N 81.15W
08/17/2024  M1.00 Inch       Catawba            NC   Broadcast Media

            WCNC storm spotter reported 1 inch hail near
            Claremont at time indicated.

&&

JMP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
604 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

SCZ108-109-172230-
Northern Spartanburg SC-Southern Spartanburg SC-
604 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTY
THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 604 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southeast of Columbus, or near Inman, moving southeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Spartanburg, Boiling Springs SC, Wellford, Inman, Campobello, USC
Upstate, Lake Bowen, and Lyman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3504 8222 3506 8222 3514 8216 3501 8188
      3488 8199
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 306DEG 15KT 3507 8212

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

8

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
611 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

NCZ503-504-172245-
Burke Mountains NC-Greater Burke NC-
611 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL BURKE COUNTY THROUGH 645
PM EDT...

At 608 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles west of Morganton, or near Glen Alpine, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Morganton, Drexel, Glen Alpine, Table Rock, Lake James, Lake James
State Park, Lake Rhodhiss, and Oak Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3588 8171 3585 8164 3582 8162 3582 8160
      3565 8159 3568 8186 3572 8187 3574 8190
      3585 8190 3589 8172
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 267DEG 10KT 3577 8181

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

8

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
629 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NNW Columbus          35.27N 82.22W
08/17/2024                   Polk               NC   911 Call Center

            911 Call Centers received numerous reports
            of downed trees across Polk County. Duke
            Energy reports a couple hundred customers
            without power near White Oak Mountain Rd in
            the Stearns community and near Skyuka Rd
            just west of Columbus. Additional power
            outages were reported further east near Bill
            Collins Rd and Smith Waldrop Rd SSE of Mill
            Spring. Time estimated from radar.

&&

JMP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
630 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

GAZ026-028-029-172315-
Elbert GA-Hart GA-Franklin GA-
630 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...
NORTHWESTERN ELBERT AND SOUTHWESTERN HART COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM
EDT...

At 629 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Carnesville, or near Franklin Springs, moving east
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea to dime size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carnesville, Hartwell, Royston, Bowman, Canon, Franklin Springs,
Victoria Bryant State Park, Dewy Rose, Nuberg, and Vanna.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning will occur with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
northeastern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3411 8303 3412 8305 3415 8307 3417 8310
      3423 8308 3427 8312 3424 8317 3425 8320
      3424 8325 3425 8327 3437 8323 3434 8286
      3408 8294
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 283DEG 12KT 3427 8317

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

8

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
641 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Fontana Village         35.43N 83.82W
08/17/2024                   Graham             NC   911 Call Center

            Graham County 911 Call Center reports
            numerous trees down in Fontana Village. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

JMP