Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

364 
WWUS52 KGSP 281851
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
151 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

NCC115-121-199-281901-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240228T1900Z/
Madison NC-Mitchell NC-Yancey NC-
151 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MADISON...
NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL AND NORTHERN YANCEY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 200
PM EST...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather to the National Weather Service
Greenville-Spartanburg, call toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or
post on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your
message should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3614 8218 3591 8216 3590 8283 3593 8283
      3592 8282 3597 8278 3599 8279 3600 8277
      3606 8264 3603 8259 3600 8261 3597 8261
      3595 8256 3601 8246 3608 8241 3611 8237
      3614 8229 3613 8225 3616 8222 3616 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 265DEG 50KT 3605 8231 

$$

ARK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1254 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move off the Carolina coast early
tonight.  A brief period of cool and dry high pressure is expected
Thursday before unsettled conditions return Friday and linger into
early next week. Another significant weather system will be
approaching by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 1207 PM EST Wednesday: As expected, observed soundings
from GSP and CLT indicate an impressive elevated mixed layer
atop a stout capping inversion.  This has thus far prevented any
prefrontal convection from developing, and should continue to do so
going forward.  It remains possible that some shallow WAA showers
will develop along the southern Blue Ridge Escarpment...but none
have been observed as of yet.

Otherwise...frontal forcing will be sufficient to lift and erode
the capping inversion and the 00z suite of high resolution CAM
guidance is in remarkable agreement depicting the evolution and
timing of a narrow "squeegee" line of convection anchored along
the frontal boundary. While a few embedded thunderstorms will be
possible, the shallow nature of convection would favor predominately
showers in the convective line.  A narrow plume of 100-300 J/kg
of surface-based instability will be possible ahead of the front
within a highly sheared environment.  However, deep-layer shear
vectors along the convective line are oriented parallel to the
frontal boundary. This would support convection being undercut by
cold pools along with the front itself.  Wind gust fields in the
CAM guidance support this and do not depict any substantial wind
gusts with the line of showers itself. While a few isolated strong
wind gusts cannot be discounted, an organized severe weather threat
is not anticipated.

Of greater impact, though, will be fairly gusty winds both ahead
of and behind the front. Strong warm advection ahead of the frontal
boundary and mixing up to 850mb will help transport frequent gusts
to the surface with 30-40mph gusts common. Behind the front, a
very tight pressure gradient across the mountains and 40-50kts of
850mb flow will support 45-60mph gusts across the higher mountain
elevations, especially along the downslope portions of the Blue
Ridge escarpment. The ongoing wind advisory remains well placed and
no changes were needed. A brief 2-3hr window may materialize along a
narrow swath of the escarpment for locally higher gusts encroaching
on high wind warning criteria (50kts). Some consideration was given
to adding a high elevation warning, but given the limited coverage
and duration will hold off for now. Otherwise, temperatures will be
quite warm today ahead of the front with continued warm advection
and compressional warming ahead of the frontal boundary supporting
very warm highs despite mostly cloudy skies. Low to mid 70s will be
common with a few readings in the upper 70s possible south of I-85
where the front will arrive last. Temperatures will crash quickly
behind the front and will be noticeably colder with overnight
lows falling into the low 20s across the higher mountains to low
30s in the lower Piedmont. Cold advection may briefly catch the
back edge of the precipitation shield over the mountains with
a fleeting shot of snow possible before profiles rapidly dry,
but this will be of no impact.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 am Wednesday: A split flow regime will be in place across
the western half of the Conus at the start of the short term, with a
southern stream short wave trough expected to eject from the Four
Corners to the southern Great Plains by the end of Thursday. Cool
and dry high pressure will migrate across our area, while cirrus
streaming out ahead of the southern stream wave will increase and
thicken across our area Thursday, likely shaving a couple of degrees
off the heating potential. Max temps are therefore expected to
struggle to reach climo...which will be in stark contrast to the
very warm temperatures experienced recently.

Height falls are expected to instigate surface wave development
along the baroclinic zone near the Gulf Coast Thu night into Friday,
and forcing and moisture will overspread the Southeast throughout
this time frame, likely reaching our CWA no later than Fri
afternoon...when PoPs increase to likely/categorical. With a ridge
of cool/dry air extending into our area from an anticyclone off the
Mid-Atlantic coast, falling precip is expected to result in
development of in-situ cold air damming Friday, resulting in max
temps about 10 degrees below climo in most areas. (If precip
develops earlier in the morning, even this may prove to be too
warm). Sufficient cold air may be in place at the onset of precip
for a wintry mix across the mtns...primarily the high elevations and
locations near the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment...where cold air
usually takes the longest to dislodge in CAD events. Nevertheless,
such a mix would be transient, as the position of the surface high
will be in poor position to supply sufficient advection of sub-
freezing wet bulb air to lock in cold air. The potential for light
icing may call for an eventual Winter Wx Advisory, but anything more
than that is highly unlikely based upon a consensus of current
guidance. Otherwise, much of the area should see a decent soak Fri
afternoon/evening, with qpf in the 0.25-0.75" range.

Fri night will see precip chances winding down and the beginning of
the end of in-situ CAD. Min temps are forecast to be around 5
degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 am Wednesday: As the next major storm system makes
landfall on the West Coast and quickly approaches the Rockies over
the weekend, resultant height falls will turn the low level flow
across our area in the wake of a departing short wave trough. This
will maintain a fetch of Gulf of Mexico low level moisture atop a
lingering/weakening surface ridge/cold air damming remnants. The
result will be periods of extensive cloud cover (especially and
night and in the morning) and token small (generally 10-30%) PoPs
through the weekend. Despite this, low level thickness values will
be anomalously high in deep SW flow upstream of an upper ridge
building near the East Coast in response to the western height
falls, and temps are forecast to quickly warm...to the tune of about
10 degrees above normal by the end of the weekend. The progressive
western system is expected to deflect through the Central Plains
into the Great Lakes early in the new work week, as upper ridging
builds strongly near the East Coast. As such, it would have minimal
direct impact on our CWA. In fact, guidance sources that do hint out
potential for organized precip chances for our area early next week
are more a result of ripples in the increasingly fast/low amplitude
flow aloft. However, there is no consensus at all in the global
models regarding this potential, and we simply maintain token small
PoPs and warming temps through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The big story remains the advancing
convective line, located across eastern TN just east of the NC-TN
state line as of 1730z.  MVFR ceilings will briefly lift ahead of
this line, before visibility crashes in association with areas
of +SHRA.  Expect this to be a fairly compact line of showers
and embedded thunder (confidence was too low for a TSRA mention
in the TAFs) so only 1-2 hours of precipitation advertised at any
of the terminals.  Once the line passes, winds will immediately
shift to the NW and clearing to VFR will be imminent.  May see some
pesky cirrus remain across the region for much of the overnight
and Thursday, although conditions will be drier and VFR.

Outlook: The pattern will turn wet again with rain and associated
restrictions early Friday.  Unsettled weather will last through
the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NCZ033-049-050-052-
     053-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...MPR/TW
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...MPR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1020 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501-503-505-507-509-291530-
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-
1020 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM
EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

A line of thunderstorms will cross the region today. A few of these
storms will be capable of producing damaging winds, small hail, and
cloud to ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-048-051-056>058-068>072-082-
502-504-506-508-510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-291530-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Madison-Swain-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-
Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
1020 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A line of thunderstorms will cross the region today. A few of these
storms will be capable of producing damaging winds, small hail, and
cloud to ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ052-059-062>064-291530-
Haywood-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
1020 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM
EST THURSDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

A line of thunderstorms will cross the region today. A few of these
storms will be capable of producing damaging winds, small hail, and
cloud to ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Krentz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
118 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

NCZ048>052-281845-
Haywood NC-Yancey NC-Swain NC-Madison NC-Mitchell NC-
118 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MADISON...NORTHEASTERN SWAIN...
NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL...NORTHWESTERN HAYWOOD AND NORTHWESTERN YANCEY
COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EST...

At 118 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles south of Greeneville to 10 miles south
of Newport to 12 miles southwest of Gatlinburg. Movement was east at
65 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Marshall, Hot Springs, Smoky Mountains-Newfound Gap, Smoky
Mountains-Cataloochee, Smoky Mountains-Big Creek, Smoky
Mountains-Balsam Mountain, Smoky Mountains-Oconaluftee, Buladean,
Ramseytown, and Waterville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3615 8214 3589 8248 3561 8310 3559 8347
      3567 8334 3566 8330 3576 8316 3578 8299
      3588 8290 3593 8292 3595 8287 3593 8281
      3600 8277 3606 8264 3603 8259 3597 8261
      3595 8256 3601 8246 3611 8237 3616 8222
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 261DEG 55KT 3607 8283 3581 8320 3560 8366

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ARK