Flash Flood Warning 71, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

476 
WGUS52 KGSP 270538
FFWGSP
NCC021-087-099-175-270800-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FF.W.0071.000000T0000Z-240927T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
138 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has extended 
the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Buncombe County in western North Carolina...
  Southeastern Haywood County in western North Carolina...
  Southeastern Jackson County in western North Carolina...
  Central Transylvania County in western North Carolina...

* Until 400 AM EDT.

* At 138 AM EDT, Persistent moderate to heavy rain across the area 
  today has resulted in between 5 and 7 inches of rain. Additional 
  rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area, 
  which will result in additional flash flooding. Flash flooding is 
  ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Downtown Asheville, Brevard, Arden, East Asheville, West 
  Asheville, North Asheville, Black Mountain, Mills River, Woodfin, 
  Fletcher, Swannanoa, Canton, Lake Junaluska, Weaverville, Fairview 
  In Buncombe County, Biltmore Forest, Bent Creek, Clyde, Mount 
  Pisgah and B.R. Parkway-Mount Pisgah To The Nc Arboretum.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rain is increasing the risk of landslides, especially in areas 
where slides have occurred in the past. Be especially alert if you 
are near a stream, especially at the base of a mountain or in a 
cove. Watch for loose-moving soil and rocks or a sudden increase in 
streamflow. Leave the area quickly if this is observed. When driving 
along roads where the terrain is steep or rocky, watch and listen 
for falling rocks, mud, trees and other debris.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3539 8298 3568 8290 3569 8280 3580 8251
      3582 8238 3580 8234 3575 8233 3571 8228
      3570 8232 3557 8237 3549 8231 3544 8254
      3542 8253 3546 8267 3542 8274 3530 8262
      3511 8318 3516 8322 3522 8322 3523 8325

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

AR

140 
WGUS72 KGSP 270727
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
327 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

NCC021-087-099-175-270737-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.W.0071.000000T0000Z-240927T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Buncombe NC-Haywood NC-Jackson NC-Transylvania NC-
327 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR BUNCOMBE, SOUTHEASTERN 
HAYWOOD, SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES...

The threat of significant flooding continues to increase within the 
warned area.  The previously-issued Flash Flood Warning has been 
replaced by a Considerable Flash Flood Warning.  Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures and instructions from emergency 
management officials.

&&

LAT...LON 3539 8298 3568 8290 3569 8280 3580 8251
      3582 8238 3580 8234 3575 8233 3571 8228
      3570 8232 3557 8237 3549 8231 3544 8254
      3542 8253 3546 8267 3542 8274 3530 8262
      3511 8318 3516 8322 3522 8322 3523 8325

$$

MPR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
548 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to make landfall over the
Florida Panhandle early tonight. The remnant circulation will move
quickly north through Georgia bringing continued heavy rainfall,
significant flooding and strong winds tonight into Friday morning.
Expect a calmer weekend with temperatures near seasonal normals.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
***A MAJOR RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY
IS OCCURRING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TO CATASTROPHIC
FLASH FLOODING***

As of 531 pm...No changes were made to the Tropical Storm
Warning or Flood Watch. All systems appear to be 'go' as the rain
continues to fall across the entire forecast area, filling up the
creeks and streams and saturating the soil. From here on out, the
flood situation will only get worse. Confidence remains high that
considerable and significant flooding will occur. The trend in the
short term model guidance continues to support a high likelihood
of frequent gusts into the upper part of tropical storm force,
and hurricane force across the peaks and ridges.

Otherwise...confidence is high with persistent rain bands associated
with TC Helene crossing into the area as the entire system
transitions to extra-tropical and is enhanced while interacting with
a sfc front. Models show rainfall intensity picking up later this
evening and moreso aft 06z as the bands set up perpendicular to the
NC mtns. This will likely add an additional 8- 10 inches of rain
across many mtn locales and produce high-end flooding, which may
require flood warnings with the EMERGENCY designation. Landslides
will become more of realistic threat overnight as slopes will become
more prone to give way due to the constant saturation. Reservoirs
along the Catawba River chain are also running high and there
could be breaching problems as enuf water may not be able to be
released beforehand. We are in coordination with dam operators and
county emergency managers for quick issuance of flood warnings in
case of emergency conditions evolving. Please remain vigilant to
any warnings issued this evening and overnight as conditions can
worsen rather quickly.

Winds will also be picking up very strong after midnight as TC
Helene does not weaken much and is quick to near our area. Right
now, expect wind gusts arnd 50 mph east of the mtns, while gusts
across the mtns increase with elevations sigfnt/ly. Cross sections
show 70+ mph winds at elevations abv 3.5 Kt and even higher values
across the mtn peaks. These winds will combine with saturated
soils and down widespread swaths of trees, producing structural
damage and knocking out power for many communities.

The system will continue to advance north of the FA late Fri morning
thru the afternoon. Lingering rainfall across the NC mtns before
noon Fri has prompted the WPC to issue a HIGH Excessive Rainfall
category for this area, which makes sense as even 2-3 extra inches
of rain will be considered excessive by that time. Improving weather
conditions are in store Fri afternoon as the column dries quickly
from above, however, the impacts and effects of this system will
last thru the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thu: By Friday evening, Helene's center will be
northwest of the Appalachians and interacting with the lower OH
Valley upper low. The CWA should be pretty much entirely in the dry
slot of the transitioning system, but the low will be positioned to
allow vort lobes to swing across the mountains, and we accordingly
keep a small PoP generally west of I-26 and northwest of I-85. 850mb
flow will continue to be southerly/upslope, and although the dry
slot will bear PWATs well under an inch initially, those values
may rebound toward daybreak Saturday. That said, the moisture
Fri night will be beneath a deep subsidence inversion and rainfall
rates/amounts are expected to pale in comparison to those earlier in
the day, so it is unlikely there will be any new flood or landslide
impacts, except perhaps on slopes made unstable by the earlier
rainfall. Gusty winds will continue particularly in higher terrain
overnight, where frequent gusts of 25-30 mph will remain possible
into Saturday morning; shallow instability may still tap into 20+
kt winds in some lower elevations over the western half of the area.

By Saturday morning, the sfc/upper low will be stacked, and
Helene should be no longer distinguishable from a regular inland
closed low. Heights will continue to rise early Saturday but then
fall a bit from the west as another vort lobe rotates over the
CWA. Convective layer deepens and appears a little more viable
in our west, so PoPs expand across the mountains again. PWATs may
rebound over 1.5 inches but CAPE does look to remain no more than
a couple hundred joules. Effective shear looks unlikely to support
a severe threat; locally heavy rain could redevelop as well as a
localized flood risk. WPC maintains Marginal Risk excessive rain
outlook for the mountains on Saturday, which seems reasonable in
light of antecedent conditions. All of the above factors will be
in play again Sunday, just shifted slightly further north/east,
so PoPs end up similar but expanded slightly in those directions.

Temps will be mild, slightly above normal for the Piedmont each
afternoon, and slightly below over the cloudier mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM Thu: Sunday night the upper low looks to begin to
rejoin the westerlies, at least partially, although the process is
slow and somewhat unsettled weather will continue through Monday
if not Tuesday. Some guidance depicts pattern almost getting to
a Rex block, with the remnant upper low beneath the eastern CONUS
ridge, but it looks somewhat transient. We retain small PoPs over
the northwest half of the CWA both days due to the upper low, but
with less potential enhancement from vort lobes. Rainfall rates are
likely to be light and currently appear unlikely to hinder recovery
efforts. Temperatures trend slightly warmer through Wednesday,
but remain within a couple degrees of normal in all locations.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Low CIGS and VSBY, into IFR or lower, will
persist this evening through the overnight across all TAF sites. A
sfc trof has become a focusing zone for continued widespread precip
over the area, while thunder chances remain low due to limited
instability. Expect heavy rain overnight as bands associated with
Hurricane Helene traverse the area. Winds will also become more
gusty into the high range while very strong winds off the surface
create sigfnt LLWS aft 09z or thru mid/late morning. Wind directions
will generally remain e/ly to se/ly with KCLT veering sw/ly by the
late period.

Outlook: The remnants of TC Helene and lingering low flight cats
will move north of the area Friday afternoon into Saturday. Isolated
to sct mainly diurnal convection will be possible thru the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for GAZ010-017-018-026-
     028-029.
     Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for NCZ033-035>037-
     048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
     Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ033-048>053-056-058-059-062>065-
     068>071-082-501>510.
     Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for NCZ035>037-057-072.
SC...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for SCZ008>014-019-
     101>109.
     Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ008>014-019-101>109.
&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM/SBK
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...SBK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
303 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0249 PM     Flash Flood      2 NNW Millersville      35.89N 81.20W
09/26/2024                   Alexander          NC   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Water over a broad stretch of Heavenly Acres
            Ln.

&&

Wimberley

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
305 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0239 PM     Flash Flood      3 NNW Bethlehem         35.86N 81.31W
09/26/2024                   Alexander          NC   Amateur Radio

            Water flowing over road near Devil Track Rd
            and Hwy 127.

&&

Wimberley

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
852 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 3 ENE Millersville      35.88N 81.14W
09/26/2024                   Alexander          NC   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Tree on a house.

&&