Flash Flood Warning 21, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

494 
WGUS72 KGSP 280646
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
146 AM EST Sun Jan 28 2024

NCC119-SCC091-280656-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.W.0021.000000T0000Z-240128T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mecklenburg NC-York SC-
146 AM EST Sun Jan 28 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG AND 
EASTERN YORK COUNTIES...

Flood waters have receded and the heavy rain has ended. Flooding is 
no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed 
remaining road closures as water levels will remain elevated over 
the next several hours.

LAT...LON 3512 8097 3512 8094 3507 8094 3507 8097

$$

Krentz

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1029 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather, possibly including localized flooding and a few
strong thunderstorms, will continue into tonight when a cold front
crosses the area. Mountain snow is expected in the wake of this
front on Sunday and Sunday night.  Dry and cooler high pressure
will return on Monday, before another system arrives from the west
Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1024 PM EST Saturday: Still have an active radar this evening,
although the intensity of showers and storms has been on a downward
trend for the last hour or two as we have slowly lost what meager
instability was available. The latest SPC mesoanalysis shows a
small plume of weak sfc-based CAPE just east of the Charlotte
metro area, and another equally weak plume over north GA just
ahead of the actual cold front. Meanwhile, the old wedge/warm
front was crawling its way northward over the Upstate and into
metro Charlotte. Widespread/numerous showers continue to develop in
the warm advection/upglide regime ahead of the front and over the
top of the old wedge across the western Carolinas. Will not rule
out additional thunderstorms, but the severe threat continues to
gradually diminish and what little remains is limited to the lower
Piedmont/eastern Upstate/metro Charlotte until the front sweeps
it all to the east in the early morning hours. We also continue
to monitor the heavy rain/flood threat. The old Flood Watch will
not be cancelled so long as numerous showers persist.

Otherwise...a deep low pressure system will track across the
TN Valley to the central Appalachians tonight. The cold front
associated with the low will push thru the area overnight, cutting
off precip from west to east and ushering in some colder air. Still,
low temps will be well above normal, especially in the east,
where temps may stay in the 50s.

As the sfc low tracks east across the Mid-Atlantic, low-level flow
will turn out of the NW and a NW flow snow event is expected to
commence. The 850 mb flow will have a good 40-50 kt orthogonal
component to the terrain with CAA bringing H85 temps down to the
-3 to -5 deg C range by Sunday aftn. Forecast soundings show the
moisture depth a little on the shallow side with an inversion
that may cap really good snow growth, but model QPF has trended
upward, so will go with categorical PoPs along the TN border with
a few inches of snow possible above 3500 ft thru 7 pm Sunday
evening. Clouds will try break containment to the rest of the
mountains and into the Piedmont during the day, but no precip is
expected. Temps will likely continue to fall thru the day across the
high terrain, and remain nearly steady or only rise slightly east
of the mountains. This results in highs a little below normal near
the TN border to still a few deg above normal east of the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sat: Setup for NW Flow snow will continue more or less
unabated through Sunday night, if not becoming somewhat more
favorable as winds strengthen nocturnally and veer slightly to due
NW. Temp/moisture profiles in the upslope layer should be all below
freezing. The moisture does not reach especially high in altitude,
but right along the NC/TN border does extend up to good dendritic
growth temperatures for a time. Strong inversion just above the layer
will limit lofting of parcels into colder temps where the moisture is
not as deep. Rime icing would predominate where/if the ice nucleation
is limited. However, the profiles remain in a steady state from
Sunday afternoon to around daybreak Monday. 850mb winds will peak in
the 40-55 kt range Sunday night. QPF has ticked upward on the CAMs.
With that, and the assumption of strong upslope lift and better snow
ratios afforded by the deeper moisture, we believe totals in the
highest part of the Smokies will easily exceed 6 inches, probably
8-12 inches. These totals will decrease quickly going toward lower
elevations, and QPF is lower in the northern mountains such that even
the higher elevation areas may not make it to warning criteria.
Winter Storm Warning issued for high elevations of Swain and Graham,
plus high elevation Advisory in Madison. Won't rule out expansion of
the Advisory to Yancey-Mitchell-Avery, particularly if totals expand
to more of the lower elevations in those zones.

Winds weaken during the day Monday although surface CAA will maintain
similar temperatures in the column. The moisture gradually will
diminish, so after 12z additional accum likely won't add much impact
on top of what will already have fallen, even though flurries very
well may continue most of the day. CAA, wind and possibly lingering
cloud cover will make Monday rather chilly in the mountains, but
downsloping will keep maxes around normal in the Piedmont.

Calm high pressure will shift over the Appalachians Monday night, and
any remaining flurries should end in the NW Flow zone. This will
result in good radiational cooling conditions across the CWA, and
mins below normal Tue morning. Max temps will be around normal
Tuesday with mostly sunny skies offsetting the freshly cooler air. A
closed low diving south across the Great Lakes region will track
toward our CWA at that time, and the first clouds surrounding it may
filter in from the north during the afternoon, especially if a weak
Clipper shortwave is captured by the low and brings an early shot of
forcing as depicted on the NAM.  Even in that case, moisture should
remain too deficient and elevated for more than a single-digit PoP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sat: Closed upper low will induce height falls over the
CWA by Tuesday evening, with heights bottoming out Wednesday
afternoon. Low-level saturation appears possible as soon as Tuesday
evening in the NW CWA, and overnight the moist layer is deep and cold
enough that snow could develop in the mountains. As winds come around
to NW in the immediate wake of the low, upslope forcing will take
over and allow snow showers to continue thru the day along the TN
border, before the low-level moisture is exhausted later Wednesday.
East of the mountains in the NC Piedmont and perhaps bordering areas
of SC, the low will induce enough low-level moist WAA that a few
sprinkles or flurries would not be completely out of the question
Tue night or Wed morning (depending on wet-bulb temp), although the
PBL appears to remain fairly dry and precip might not reach the
surface. During the day Wednesday, a shallow unstable layer could
develop and is the driver for small PoPs in the eastern half of the
CWA, with the best chances still appearing in the I-77 corridor.
Temps will be limited by cloud cover and potentially evaporative
cooling in the areas of the PoPs, probably a little below normal
there but near normal in the southern CWA.

Moderating temperatures and mostly clear skies return by Thursday and
may last into Friday. Models diverge in their handling of the pattern
in this part of the week, with a sharp omega block pattern taking
shape on the GFS and ECMWF. The GDPS is slower to eject the midweek
upper low from our area, but subsequently shows a more progressive
upper ridge bringing settled and somewhat cooler weather into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Still a mixed bag of flight categories this
evening, and expect the variable conditions to continue at all
terminals until the cold front moves through late this evening and
overnight. Kept thunder out of all the terminals other than KCLT,
which stands the best chance of getting the warm front to lift
far enough north to allow for some instability to support storms
during mid/late evening. We could get a brief break in the action
in mid-evening between the ongoing showers and a line of showers
and storms associated with the actual cold front. Guidance remains
pessimistic about any improvements in flight category during
that break, but once the main front moves through in the early
morning hours, we should see an improvement to MVFR from west to
east in the early to middle morning, then VFR outside the mtns as
the winds become westerly and downslope in the late morning. Much
of the details of this transition were left out for brevity. KAVL
will probably retain the low cloud restriction through the period.

Outlook: Gusty NW winds are expected Sunday, as dry air moves in
behind the departing cold front and helps scour out low clouds
and fog. Dry high pressure returns early next week bringing VFR
conditions back to the area. An upper low may bring precip and
restrictions on Wednesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flood Watch until 1 AM EST Sunday for GAZ010-017.
NC...Flood Watch until 1 AM EST Sunday for NCZ051-058-059-062>065.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon Sunday to noon EST Monday
     for NCZ048.
     Winter Storm Warning from noon Sunday to noon EST Monday for
     NCZ051-052.
SC...Flood Watch until 1 AM EST Sunday for SCZ101>103.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...ARK/PM
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
701 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-
019-104>109-290015-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
701 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A passing storm system will bring heavy rainfall tonight into early
Sunday. This system will pose a risk of isolated flash flooding as
heavy rain falls on saturated soils. Isolated thunderstorms may become
embedded in this activity, with a couple of storms becoming severe.
Any severe storm that develops will be capable of producing damaging
wind gusts or even a weak tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-NCZ064-065-SCZ101>103-290015-
Rabun-Habersham-Transylvania-Henderson-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
701 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

A passing storm system will bring active weather to the area tonight
into early Sunday. In addition to the risk of flooding, isolated
thunderstorms will become embedded in this activity this evening and
tonight, with a couple of storms possibly becoming severe. Any
severe storm that develops will be capable of producing damaging
wind gusts or even a weak tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ051-290015-
Swain-
701 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON EST
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

A passing storm system will bring active weather to the area tonight
into early Sunday. In addition to the risk of flooding, isolated
thunderstorms will become embedded in this activity this evening and
tonight, with a couple of storms possibly becoming severe. Any severe
storm that develops will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts
or even a weak tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

Accumulating snowfall is expected Sunday through early Monday, primarily
at high elevations. This may result in slick roadways and reduced
visibility.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-049-050-053-290015-
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-
701 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A passing storm system will bring heavy rainfall tonight. This system
will pose a risk of isolated flash flooding as heavy rain falls on
saturated soils. A few thunderstorms may become embedded in this activity.
Any thunderstorm which develops will be capable of producing gusty winds
and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Accumulating snowfall is expected Sunday through early Monday, primarily
at high elevations. This may result in slick roadways and reduced
visibility.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ052-290015-
Haywood-
701 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON EST
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A passing storm system will bring heavy rainfall tonight. This
system will pose a risk of isolated flash flooding as heavy rain
falls on saturated soils. In addition, isolated thunderstorms may
become embedded in this activity, with a couple of storms becoming
severe. Any severe storm which develops will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts or even a weak tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

Accumulating snowfall is expected Sunday through early Monday,
primarily at high elevations. This may result in slick roadways and
reduced visibility.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ058-059-062-063-290015-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
701 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

A passing storm system will bring active weather to the area tonight.
In addition to the risk of flooding, isolated thunderstorms will become
embedded in this activity with a couple of storms possibly becoming severe.
Any severe storm which develops will be capable of producing damaging wind
gusts or even a weak tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Accumulating snowfall is possible Sunday through early Monday,
primarily at high elevations. This may result in slick roadways and
reduced visibility.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ048-290015-
Madison-
701 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON EST
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A passing storm system will bring a round of heavy rainfall tonight.
This system will pose a risk of isolated flash flooding as heavy rain
falls on saturated soils. A few thunderstorms may become embedded in
this activity this evening and tonight. Any thunderstorm which develops
will be capable of producing gusty winds and frequent cloud-to-ground
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Accumulating snowfall is expected Sunday through early Monday,
primarily at high elevations. This may result in slick roadways and
reduced visibility.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
657 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

NCZ082-280015-
Union NC-
657 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY
THROUGH 715 PM EST...

At 657 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles east of Monroe, or near Marshville, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Marshville, Sturdivants, Wingate, and New Salem.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 8032 3481 8044 3509 8045 3520 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 237DEG 22KT 3503 8035

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
804 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     6 ENE Callison          34.05N 82.03W
01/27/2024                   Greenwood          SC   Public

            Several large limbs down about 2 miles north
            of Kirksey.

&&

TW