Flash Flood Warning 115, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
558 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system will lead to a few showers across
the area this weekend into early next week, but rainfall amounts are
expected to be light.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 530 PM: Helene is now centered in central Kentucky where
the storm is expected to move west as it interacts with upper low
centered in TN. Some small light showers continue in the upslope
areas south of the Escarpment, but rainfall rates are small
and they should not add to any of the ongoing problems we have.
Winds continue to diminish and we should lose some of the gusts
with sunset, so the plan remains to let go of the Wind Advisory
in most places at 23z, but we will retain the Advisory over the
mountains from the Smokies to the GA/SC border area thru 12z for
the continuing threat in high elevations.

Otherwise...a combined, stacked low will develop as Helene goes
fully post-tropical and wraps into the extant upper low. The system
will linger over KY/TN Saturday. Accordingly moist southerly flow
will continue, so a few light showers are likely also to continue
near the Blue Ridge Escarpment thru Saturday, still not likely to
be significant in light of what's already occurred. The synoptic
models don't show a clear vort lobe rotating over our mountains as
once suggested during the day Sat, but midlevel height falls and
moistening still make for slightly deeper but very weak convective
profiles to develop over the mountains, so PoPs tick upward as this
occurs along with diurnal warming. This activity likely won't even
be deep enough for lightning, but localized rainfall totals up to
1 inch could occur on ridgetops of the southwest mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 120 PM Friday: A mid level low pressure system will move
slowly across the region through the short range period. This will
lead to some scattered showers mainly in the mountains Sunday into
early next week. Rainfall amounts with this system are expected to
be light and not cause any new flooding. Temperatures should be
slightly above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 135 pm Friday: The mid level low will pull away from the
region for the extended period leaving northwesterly flow and dry
conditions for the rest of the week. A weak system moving across the
Great Lakes region will push a weak and dry cold front through the
area during the middle of the week. Temperatures will start out a
little above normal and then become slightly below normal for the end
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: LLWS may be an occasional threat for
sites this afternoon, and may recur Saturday over KAVL. Most
cigs have lifted to high MVFR or VFR across most of the Piedmont,
and should steadily continue to improve thru early evening. Areas
of MVFR to IFR fog possible overnight particularly near KAVL and
KHKY. Confidence limited in TAFs by lack of obs at numerous sites
around the region following TS Helene passage, and AMD NOT SKED
included for KAVL. Occasional gusts of 30+ kt are possible at the
TAF sites this afternoon, but for tonight and Saturday should be
seasonable low-end values of 15-20 kt.

Outlook: Isolated to sct mainly diurnal/mainly mountain convection
(primarily showers) will be possible thru early next week. Morning
fog/low stratus will be possible each day, mainly in the mountain
valleys.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for GAZ010.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ017-018-026-
     028-029.
NC...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ051-052-058-059-
     062>064.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ033-035>037-
     048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ008>014-019-
     101>109.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SCW
NEAR TERM...PM/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...Wimberley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
710 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-282315-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
710 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No additional rain is expected overnight. Although the weather has
calmed down, flooding continues to be a problem across much of the
region. Continue to monitor warnings in your area and heed all
official instructions for evacuations and road closures.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-282315-
Rabun-Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-
710 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and western
North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.