Tornado Warning 8, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

204 
WWUS53 KGRR 072149
SVSGRR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
549 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

MIC077-159-072245-
/O.CON.KGRR.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-240507T2245Z/
Van Buren MI-Kalamazoo MI-
549 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN VAN BUREN AND KALAMAZOO COUNTIES...

At 549 PM EDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located
near Mattawan, or 6 miles west of Portage, moving northeast at 45
mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may 
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes 
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, 
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction 
         is possible.

The tornado will be near...
  Kalamazoo, Portage, and Westwood around 555 PM EDT.
  Parchment and Comstock Northwest around 600 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Fulton, Comstock, Scotts, Oshtemo, Alamo, and Cooper.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to
a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4207 8596 4215 8596 4242 8577 4242 8561
      4212 8529 4207 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 227DEG 39KT 4220 8571 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

$$

MJS

698 
WWUS53 KGRR 072158
SVSGRR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
558 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

MIC159-072207-
/O.CAN.KGRR.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-240507T2245Z/
Van Buren MI-
558 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN VAN BUREN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled for 
Van Buren County.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for southwestern
Michigan. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT
for south central Michigan.

LAT...LON 4228 8577 4229 8576 4238 8557 4212 8529
      4207 8530 4207 8576
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 234DEG 30KT 4221 8565 

$$

MIC077-072245-
/O.CON.KGRR.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-240507T2245Z/
Kalamazoo MI-
558 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT FOR KALAMAZOO
COUNTY...

At 557 PM EDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located
near Portage, moving northeast at 35 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may 
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes 
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, 
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction 
         is possible.

The tornado will be near...
  Kalamazoo, Portage, Comstock Northwest, and Westwood around 605 PM 
  EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Fulton, Comstock, Scotts, and Oshtemo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not take shelter under highway overpasses. If you
cannot safely drive away from the tornado, as a last resort, either
park your vehicle and stay put, or abandon your vehicle and lie down
in a low lying area and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4228 8577 4229 8576 4238 8557 4212 8529
      4207 8530 4207 8576
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 234DEG 30KT 4221 8565 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

$$

MJS

023 
WWUS53 KGRR 072228
SVSGRR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
628 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

MIC077-072237-
/O.CAN.KGRR.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-240507T2245Z/
Kalamazoo MI-
628 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR KALAMAZOO COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for southwestern
Michigan. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT
for south central Michigan.

Remember, a Tornado Warning still remains in effect for east central 
portions of Kalamazoo County including Galesburg and Climax area. 


LAT...LON 4228 8577 4229 8576 4238 8557 4212 8529
      4207 8530 4207 8576
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 227DEG 39KT 4244 8532 

$$

MJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
319 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stormy this evening, chance of rain Wednesday night

- Rain Expected Thursday and Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

- Stormy this evening, chance of rain Wednesday night

The forecast is progressing as expected and severe storms are a
distinct possibility the rest of this afternoon and evening.

Radar shows the initial push of showers/non-severe storms has
migrated to the eastern cwa and clearing is rapidly filling in
behind it across the southwest cwa. Destabilization is rapidly
occuring and as a strong short wave moves closer, severe storms
have developed over northeast IL and are moving northeast toward
Lower MI.

SPC mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE around 2500 j/kg and bulk shear
greater than 60 kts across northeast IL. Severe storms will
continue to develop to the southwest through early evening and
move into the cwa and all severe hazard types are possible: hail,
wind, tornadoes. Areas south of I-96 have the highest risk for
severe storms, but all of the cwa has a chance. The severe threat
will end after 10 pm as the short wave axis rotates north out of
the cwa.

Wednesday will be dry with weak ridging moving into the cwa.
However, it will be short lived as the rest of the upper trough
pivots through the state beginning Wednesday night.

Highs will be in the 70s Wednesday and lows in the 40s Wednesday
night.

- Rain Expected Thursday and Saturday

Rainfall begins early Thursday morning and continues into the day
Thursday as a low-pressure system tracking through the Ohio Valley,
aided by a mid-level wave, sends a band of deformation rainfall
across the area. Highest rain potential will be across southwest
lower Michigan closer to the low's track with better FGEN. Rain
chances are lower across Central Region as its further away from the
better forcing. Can't rule out a bit of thunder given 6-7C mid-level
lapse rates but chances are low and would mainly be limited to near
and south of I94 if at all.

Shortwave ridging and an area of high pressure keep Friday dry
across the area. Highs will warm into the low 60s. Our next chance
of rain is Saturday as a shortwave sends a surface low near Lake
Michigan. Could see some diurnal enhancement to shower activity as
the upper-level cold pool moves overhead with steeper mid-level
lapse rates supporting thunder chances. Best rain chances will be
across the southwest half of the CWA between the low track and placement
of the upper-level cold pool.

Predictability then decreases going into the start of next week as
model spread in the upper-level pattern increases. Showers may
continue into the start of next week but low confidence in when they
will end.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will be just
clearing the terminals near 18z. Additional thunderstorm
development is likely with this afternoon and evening, especially
near and south of GRR. Thunderstorms bring the potential of
locally IFR conditions and gusty winds and hail. Have added VCTS
along with a TEMPO group for the highest confidence window. A few
hours of MVFR cigs is possible post showers and storms near I96
before skies become MVFR with the exception of MKG who should keep
MVFR until tomorrow morning. Southeast winds become southwest
tonight into tomorrow generally 7-12 knots and locally higher in
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

The main threat for boaters tonight are severe storms with large
hail and strong winds. Additionally, as dewpoints climb into the
lower 60s areas of fog will develop.

Wednesday looks less chaotic as the fog will dissipate and storms
are not expected.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...04/Thomas
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
416 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-080800-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
416 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon through evening. While
lightning is a hazard in any thunderstorm, some storms may be
locally severe, with damaging wind gusts, large hail, or a brief
tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today, most likely between 4 PM
and 10 PM.

LMZ844>849-080800-
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
416 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon through evening. While
lightning is a hazard in any thunderstorm, some storms may be
locally severe, with briefly stronger wind gusts or large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Winds and waves on Lake Michigan may be hazardous to small craft
on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today, most likely between 4 PM
and 10 PM.