Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
305 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal Risk of Severe Weather This Evening

- Slight Risk of Severe Weather Tuesday Night

- Chance of Storms Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

- Marginal Risk of Severe Weather This Evening

Multiple lines of convection from Lake Michigan to southern
Wisconsin and northern Illinois this afternoon will be moving
into Lower Michigan this evening. Latest radar trends are showing
a weakening of the storms over Lake Michigan but these storms
could strengthen again as they move back over land with 500 to
1000 J/kg of MUCAPE to work with. The main threat is isolated wind
damage with the strongest convection. The severe threat will
diminish with loss of sfc heating this evening. The showers will
be exiting the eastern zones around midnight.

- Slight Risk of Severe Weather Tuesday Night

There should be a lull in the convection as the first shortwave
trough minors out/moves east and is replaced by flat ridging
before heights fall again late Tuesday afternoon and evening as
the next shortwave trough axis swings through along with
increasing shear profiles and deep lift. Scattered convection in
the afternoon will give way to increasing POPs as organized
convection along and ahead of the cold front pushes in from the
west.

Primary threat will again be scattered wind damage with stronger
updrafts or bowing line segments, but model soundings from the GFS
and NAM show possible QLCS tornado threat with favorable low
level helicity as near sfc winds veer strongly with height.

- Chance of Storms Wednesday

The front bringing the chance for severe weather Tuesday night
continues to drive south and east during the day on Wednesday. The
GFS/NAM have trended towards the ECMWF suggesting the front clears
our southeast CWA in the vicinity of 18z Wednesday. Given how early
the front clears the area, the potential for convective
redevelopment is uncertain. There are signals for the potential of
showers and storms to develop south and east of Grand Rapids, mainly
down towards Jackson, Wednesday afternoon and evening aided by a
passing vorticity maximum.. If any development can happen on the
warm side of the front, a strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out
given 40-45 knots of deep layer shear hence the current marginal
risk for severe storms. Rain chances end early Thursday.

Dry weather is expected Thursday into Friday as surface ridging
aided by zonal flow at 500mb ridging by Friday and little to no
deep layer moisture. The lack of moisture also keeps plenty of
sunshine in the forecast with highs well into the 70s Thursday and
Friday.

An lead shortwave ahead of a parent trough approaches early Saturday
increasing clouds and rain chances, further increasing Saturday and
into the day on Sunday as a weakening surface low sends a front
through the area with renewed cyclogenesis over the central Great
Lakes. Exact timing and placement of important features, as expected
over 5 days out, is still uncertain but the broader signal across
guidance is generally similar. So, while timing and extent of any
precipitation is uncertain, the chance does exist for rain during
the memorial day weekend. This means the NBM 30-40 percent PoPs are
appropriate for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

The next 24 hours will feature two primary concerns in terms of
aviation impacts. The first is a line of thunderstorms that will
arrive near MKG around 22z and move east, exiting LAN/JXN by
4z-5z.Scattered storms cannot be ruled out ahead of the line this
afternoon but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs. Gusty
winds and MVFR to IFR conditions are possible in any storms.
Behind the storms, fog and low stratus are expected to develop
north of a front affecting GRR and MKG. IFR and possibly LIFR,
particularly at MKG are expected. LAN has a chance of impacts as
well but lower being just south of where the front sets up.
Scattered IFR clouds and patchy fog are possible at AZO/BTL/JXN.
Conditions improve after 13z as winds increase and daytime heating
mixes out moisture.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Offshore winds and waves below 3 feet through Tuesday although
there could be some locally strong winds and choppy waves in the
vicinity of thunderstorms this evening and again Tuesday night.

Winds will pick up Tuesday night and Wednesday with waves building
to 6 to 8 feet Wednesday morning.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Ostuno/Thomas
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Ostuno

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
343 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-210745-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
343 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Marginally severe storms with potential for damaging wind gusts
and hail are expected from mid afternoon through late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a slight risk for severe weather mainly late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ844>849-210745-
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
343 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Marginally severe storms will bring locally higher winds and waves
posing a hazard to mariners this afternoon into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A slight risk for severe weather exists late Tuesday night with
high winds and waves in and near thunderstorms posing a hazard to
mariners.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
452 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

MIZ043-044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072-202245-
Oceana MI-Kalamazoo MI-Muskegon MI-Barry MI-Ottawa MI-Newaygo MI-
Allegan MI-Van Buren MI-Kent MI-
452 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Van Buren, Allegan,
Kent, Ottawa, Newaygo, western Barry, Muskegon, Kalamazoo and Oceana
Counties through 645 PM EDT
...

At 451 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 35 miles west of Muskegon to 25 miles
northwest of St. Joseph. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Grand Rapids...        Kalamazoo...           Portage...
Muskegon...            Holland...             Grand Haven...
Hastings...            Allegan...             South Haven...
Paw Paw...             Hart...                Newaygo...
White Cloud...         Wyoming...             Kentwood...
Walker...              Shelby...              Grandville...
Muskegon Heights...    East Grand Rapids...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
south central, central, southwestern and west central Michigan.

&&

LAT...LON 4207 8622 4224 8622 4224 8637 4246 8625
      4275 8621 4309 8625 4362 8654 4381 8643
      4381 8556 4330 8556 4329 8531 4207 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 234DEG 30KT 4305 8692 4232 8687 4188 8711

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

OSTUNO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
538 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

MIZ064-202215-
Allegan MI-
538 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Allegan
County through 615 PM EDT
...

At 537 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles southwest of Saugatuck to 7 miles
northwest of South Haven. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Holland...             Fennville...           Saugatuck...
Dorr...                Ganges...              Hamilton...
Douglas...             Burnips...             Macatawa...
Glenn...               Castle Park...         Saugatuck Dunes SP...
Overisel...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
southwestern Michigan.

&&

LAT...LON 4258 8623 4264 8623 4270 8620 4277 8621
      4277 8580 4272 8571 4250 8624
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 228DEG 48KT 4261 8637 4249 8636

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

OSTUNO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
608 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NNW Saugatuck         42.68N 86.21W
05/20/2024  M56 MPH          LMZ845             MI   Buoy

            Saugatuck Pier buoy.

&&

EO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
611 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SSE Holland           42.74N 86.09W
05/20/2024  M44 MPH          Allegan            MI   ASOS

            BIV ASOS peak wind gust.

&&

EO

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