Severe Thunderstorm Warning 296, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
208 PM MDT Wed Jul 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms may occur over the eastern
  counties this afternoon through early evening.

- Next rain chance is Friday evening.

- Cooler weather with increasing chances for rain middle of next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 AM MDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Isolated showers and thunderstorms have formed behind the weak
cold front moving through. At this time severe weather is not
anticipated for the morning storm activity. However, as
temperatures continue to warm late this morning and the
inversion mixed out, severe wind gusts up to 70 MPH may occur
with any storm.

Am expecting the storm activity to continue east across the rest
of the forecast area today. The storm activity may expand
southward once the storms move past Hitchcock and Thomas
counties this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM MDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Latest upper air analysis shows the ridge over the Southern Plains,
with zonal flow over the Central Plains.  A weak frontal boundary
was accompanying an upper level short wave trough east across
Southern Nebraska and Northern Kansas.  Along this boundary
thunderstorms have continued to form and move eastward.

For the rest of the afternoon, anticipate thunderstorm activity to
continue moving eastward behind the frontal boundary.  As the
frontal boundary moves over the eastern part of the forecast area it
will move into higher instability due to the warmer temperatures.
This could cause storms to become stronger.  However, latest model
data is showing the stability increasing, which seems reasonable
given the high cloud bases and rather large dew point depressions at
the LCL.  There is a narrow layer of ML CAPE over 1000 j/kg. However
it is so narrow that confidence is on the low side that the
instability that high is representative of what the storm updrafts
will take advantage of.  Effective shear will be near 50 kts,
similar to what it is currently, and storms have yet to have to
become well organized at this point.  Given this, am thinking the
main threat is damaging wind gusts up to 70 MPH.

Tonight the storm activity will shift east of the forecast area by
mid evening.  Behind the storm activity winds will become light and
turn to the east.  Lows will be a few degrees cooler than last night
due to the passage of the weak cold front.

Thursday is expected to be dry due to subsidence aloft and large dew
point depressions at the LCL.  Highs will still be hot, but not as
hot as the last couple of days.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 103 AM MDT Wed Jul 31 2024

The above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the
long term period as an upper ridge moves over the Central CONUS.

Thursday night, the area will be under northwest split flow aloft as
an upper low moves over the Upper Midwest and an upper high moves
over the Southern Plains and Western CONUS. This ridge is expected
to sit over the region throughout the remainder of the period. With
this upper pattern, it is possible that any smoke out west and in
the western half of Canada could move over the Tri-State area
helping to keep temperatures down a few degrees from the current
forecast and potentially impact air quality. High temperatures on
Friday and Saturday are forecast to be in the 90s. While Sunday
through Tuesday are expected to be in the 90s to lower 100s, with
the hottest values east of the CO border. Wednesday looks to be a
bit cooler with highs currently expected to be in the 80s due to the
shower/storm chances throughout the day. Overnight lows will be in
the 60s each Thursday night through Saturday. Overnight lows will
increase over our far east Sunday and Monday with values in the 60s
to lower 70s. Tuesday and Wednesday may have overnight lows in the
50s to 60s.

While we are in an overall dry pattern, there is still potential
(less than 40%) for some diurnally-driven convection to develop
during the afternoon and overnight hours Friday. The best chances of
20-40% PoPs is along and west of Highway 27. Saturday through Monday
afternoon are currently expected to be dry. Weak disturbances
travelling over the ridge will help generate another chance (up to
35%) for showers/storms Monday evening ahead of an approaching cold
front passing through on Tuesday. Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday look to be our best chances for precipitation impacting
the entire Tri-State area as showers and thunderstorms develop along
and behind the fronts moving over each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Wed Jul 31 2024

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. A broken line of storms
will continue to move eastward. This will affect KMCK for the
next couple of hours. There maybe some wind gusts with these
storms as they move through.  Aside from the storms winds will
be light, turning from the north to the east and back again.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Mon Jul 29 2024

July 31 High Temperature Records (F):

Goodland......105 in 2002
Hill City.....113 in 1934
McCook........107 in 2002
Burlington....102 in 2002
Colby.........108 in 1935
Tribune.......107 in 1934
Yuma..........107 in 2002

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ015-016-029.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...JTL
CLIMATE...BV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
206 PM MDT Wed Jul 31 2024

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-012015-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
206 PM MDT Wed Jul 31 2024 /306 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Due to scattered thunderstorms develop over portions of northwest
Kansas this afternoon, A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect
for Norton, Decatur, Sheridan, and Graham counties between 2 PM and
10 PM CDT. Brief, localized wind gusts up to 70 mph are possible in
association with ANY thunderstorms.

Air temperatures and heat indices around 105 degrees are expected
this afternoon in Graham, Sheridan and Gove counties, where a Heat
Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required

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