Severe Thunderstorm Warning 290, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
418 PM MDT Sun Jul 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated severe storm is possible this afternoon, mainly
  along/north of I-70 in KS-NE between 3-8 PM MDT. Quarter to
  golf ball size hail and wind gusts up to 70 mph are the
  primary severe weather hazards. Confidence is low with regard
  to whether or not storms will develop.

- Monday through Wednesday are forecast to see temperatures in
  the 100's with heat index values also in the 100's. Locales
  generally along and east of Highway 83 could see heat index
  values in the mid 100's Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Not as hot Thursday through Saturday with high temperatures
  generally in the upper 90s and lower 100's. Chance for smoke
  to return to the area if wildfires are still ongoing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jul 28 2024

Overview: Unidirectional /westerly/ flow aloft will prevail
over the Tri-State area today.. downstream of an upper level low
progressing ENE from western Montana to southern Saskatchewan..
and upstream of an upper level low progressing ENE-NE from Iowa
to the Great Lakes.

Current and recent runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST suggest that
strong insolation will aid in the development of isolated
convection in climatologically/ geographically favored locations
in the lee of the Rockies (Cheyenne Ridge, Palmer Divide) by
~21Z this afternoon -- that said convection will intensify as it
progresses east (via ~30 knot westerly steering flow) toward
the CO-KS border ~22Z -- and that an isolated supercell will
emerge from said activity, propagating southeastward along/near
I-70 invof Goodland, Colby and Oakley before dissipating ~00Z.
The HRRR and NAM NEST also suggest that an isolated right-mover
may emerge from convection initiating along/near the Cheyenne
Ridge ~23Z.. and that said right-mover will propagate
southeastward into portions of southwest Nebraska prior to
dissipating ~02Z. Given that convection allowing guidance tends
to be less reliable in weak forcing regimes, confidence remains
below average with regard to whether or not the aforementioned
scenario(s) will materialize / play-out as indicated.
Nevertheless, it must be said that.. recent trends in visible
satellite (e.g. towering Cu in southern Washington/Yuma counties
and along the I-80 corridor from Cheyenne WY to Sidney NE at
1930Z).. lend a fair amount of credibility to convective
initiation as indicated by the HRRR/NAM NEST (timing and
location, at least). Environmental conditions over the Tri-
State area -- characterized by a pronounced elevated mixed layer
(8.5-9.0 C/km H7-H5 lapse rates), modest high-based instability
(~1000 J/kg mlcape), extreme (~2000 J/kg) DCAPE and ~40 knots
of effective deep layer shear (~15-25 KFT AGL) -- are certainly
supportive of isolated supercells.. *if* any updrafts can
survive/overcome a considerable amount of dry air entrainment.
With the above in mind, expect a conditional potential for an
isolated supercell (or two) capable of producing damaging winds
and large hail.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM MDT Sun Jul 28 2024

This upcoming week through the weekend continues to be forecast to
see hot temperatures and low chances for storms.

Monday and Tuesday remain forecast to see the upper ridge amplify
over the Plains. With this temperatures continue to be forecast in
the 100s with mid to upper 100's possible on Tuesday. The main
concern/inhibitor is the smoke from wildfires. The smoke from all
the wildfires continues to move across the CONUS and for us as kept
temperatures a few degrees lower than their potential. While the
upper pattern is forecast to try and keep the smoke from the area,
tomorrow may still see enough that temperatures remain in the upper
90's and low 100's instead of the mid 100's (as the 34-35C 850mb
temps would suggest). With the ridge axis over the area, storms are
unlikely both days.

Wednesday & Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through
the Northern Plains. While not necessarily associated with any cold
air mass, the trough should push the hotter temperatures out of the
area and allow for 90's and low 100's. The shortwave trough and
associated surface low should provide some additional lift for
storms, especially on Wednesday. Even with the forcing though, the
overall dry pattern and weak flow look to keep storm chances around
or lower than 30%.

Going into the weekend, an upper trough/low are forecast to deepen
over the Eastern CONUS while the ridge rebuilds over the
Western/Central portions of the CONUS. This will lower the storm
potential back to 10% or less each day. There is still a small
hint that a trough could rotate around the larger low in Eastern
Canada and push through the Plains, providing higher storm
chances and slightly cooler temperatures. However, most ensemble
and deterministic guidance is favoring the ridge dominating
again. The main inhibitor to temperatures climbing back into the
100's is the northerly flow that is forecast. This would be
similar flow to what brought smoke into the area the past week.
If this occurs, temperatures will likely remain in the 90's.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 418 PM MDT Sun Jul 28 2024

Both terminals will see mainly VFR conditions through the
forecast period. There is a chance from 00z-03z Monday that
5-6sm with -TSRA.

Winds for KGLD, east around 10-15kts through 03z-04z, then
light/variable. If any storms move to impact the terminal from
00z-03z, then variable gusts 30-45kts are possible.

Winds for KMCK, east around 10kts through 02z, then
light/variable, then east again by 19z Monday. If any storms
move to impact the terminal from 00z-02z, then variable gusts
20-35kts are possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sun Jul 28 2024

July 29 High Temperature Records (F):

Goodland......104 in 1947
McCook........109 in 1947
Burlington....100 in 2012
Hill City.....108 in 1917

July 30 High Temperature Records (F):

Goodland......106 in 1935
McCook........105 in 2002
Burlington....101 in 2012
Hill City.....109 in 1976

July 31 High Temperature Records (F):

Goodland......105 in 2002
McCook........107 in 2002
Burlington....102 in 2002
Hill City.....113 in 1934

Goodland has the potential for 5 consecutive days of highs of
100+ degrees which would tie it for the 14th longest on record.
Last time this happened was July of 2012.

McCook is also currently forecasted at 5 consecutive days of
100+ degree temperatures which would tie it for 20th all time.
However a few days of overachieving temperatures could put them
in the top 6 all time.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...BV
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...JN
CLIMATE...Trigg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1102 AM MDT Sun Jul 28 2024

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-291715-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
1102 AM MDT Sun Jul 28 2024 /1202 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

An isolated severe storm is possible this afternoon, mainly along
and north of Interstate 70 in Kansas and Nebraska between 3 PM and 8
PM MDT. Golf ball size hail and wind gusts up to 70 mph are the
primary severe weather hazards. Confidence is low with regard to
whether or not storms will develop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A prolonged period of much above normal temperatures over 100
degrees are forecast Monday through Thursday. Heat index values of
100 to 105 degrees are anticipated Monday with 100 to 110 degrees on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

Vincent

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
543 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

KSZ001-282300-
Cheyenne KS-
543 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS THROUGH 600 PM CDT...

At 543 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of St. Francis, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  St. Francis around 550 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 10204 3991 10200 3991 10161 3966 10182
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 277DEG 41KT 3980 10193

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JRM

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