Severe Thunderstorm Warning 285, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
544 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 9 PM MDT,
  10 PM CDT this evening.

- Low chances of daily thunderstorms through Tuesday of next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 530 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #555 remains in effect until 9 PM
MDT, 10 PM CDT this evening. Additional thunderstorms along the
Cheyenne Ridge, Colorado Front Range and Palmer Divide are
anticipated to progress S to SE into eastern Colorado and far
western Kansas this evening (~6-10 pm MDT). At this point,
severe weather potential appears to be confined to:

1) Eastern Colorado, where a largely unmodified airmass
persists.

2) Southwest Nebraska, where an isolated supercell.. located
over portions of Hayes/Frontier counties at 2326 UTC.. will
progress south toward and/or into Hitchcock and Red Willow
counties between 0030-0130 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Across the region this afternoon, skies mainly south of I-70 are
currently sunny, but north of the Interstate there is a sky cover
mix due to thunderstorms forming along a couple surface troughs, one
along the CO/KS border and the other stretching eastward into
southwest Nebraska.

The main wx concerns for the short term period are going to focus on
the strong to severe thunderstorm potential this afternoon and
evening, followed by some scattered chances this weekend.

The latest RAP40 500 mb analysis continues to show a broad dome of
high pressure over the western portion of the country. The latest
mid level water vapor imagery is showing a shortwave moving along
the eastern side of the ridge. This shortwave is interacting with
the aforementioned surface troughs to trigger the current round of
storms. Wind reports in the 60-70 mph range have already been
reported since the severe thunderstorm watch has been issued.

While the convection is occurring an hour or so earlier than the
latest CAMs (NamNest/HRRR) were showing, they both still have this
first line of storms followed by a second round with the shortwave
around 00z Saturday. Most of the CWA remains under an Enhanced Risk
for severe with a wind threat as the main hazard. Model soundings do
show inverted-v profiles with fairly decent DCape around 1000-
1200j/kg and SBCape/MLCape around 1300-1700j/kg near the 00z
timeframe. With PW values over an inch for most locations, locally
heavy rainfall on top of wind potential up 70-75 mph, and some large
hail are possible. This activity will push through the CWA by 04z-
05z tonight, with some lingering precip in the east going into
Saturday morning.

Going into this weekend, chances for rw/trw will persist(20-40%
Saturday and 20-50% Sunday) with the focus over the western half of
the CWA. This will be do in part to a couple shortwaves working
through the area in tandem with a surface low/front moving south
through eastern Colorado. Less instability this weekend than today,
so not looking for severe chances at this time.

For temps, it will cooler going into the weekend with highs on
Saturday in the mid to upper 80s giving way to upper 70s to the mid
80s on Sunday. Overnight lows tonight and Saturday night will range
from the mid 50s west into the mid 60s east. By Sunday night, 50s
area-wide with warmest locales east of Highway 25.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

The latest extended guidance(GFS/ECMWF) continues to show an
amplified 500mb ridge over the western portion of the country that
will shift slowly eastward through the week. East of the CWA there
is a mixed trough/cutoff low over the Iowa area. Circulation will
end up northerly aloft as a result through the period.

At the surface, high pressure east will make a push westward. Over
the western CWA, there is a low/frontal boundary that moves slowly
south along the CO/KS border Sunday-Tuesday. This boundary will be
the focus for a 15-25% chance for rw/trw mainly for western portions
of the area. A few weak shortwaves around the upper low will flow
south and interact with the surface feature, enhancing precip
potential.

Despite the low chances for rainfall, 850mb temps peaking around
+30c to +34c by Thursday-Friday, up from +21c to +25c on Monday is
going to allow for a warming trend through the week.

For temps, an upward trend will occur next week as highs on Monday
will range mainly in the lower to mid 80s, upper 80s to mid 90s by
midweek, then mid to upper 90s by next Friday. Overnight lows will
see an upward trend as well w/ mid 50s west to around 60F east
Monday night, giving way to 60s by Thursday and Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Aside from a potential for thunderstorms this aft/eve -- mainly
at the MCK terminal between 00-02 UTC -- VFR conditions will
otherwise prevail. S to SE winds at 10-15 knots will become
variable late this evening and overnight. Winds will shift to
the N-NE at 10-15 knots late Saturday morning and early
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

UPDATE...Vincent
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...Vincent

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
821 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-210230-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
821 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 /921 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for portions of the
area until 11 PM MDT / 12 AM CDT, mainly along and west of Highway
25.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe or significant weather
to the National Weather Service in Goodland via social media or
telephone. We appreciate your reports, thank you!

Vincent

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